A Special To the Point: Ontario Election Results

With all the ballots counted, Ontario’s marathon municipal election cycle comes to an end. We recap the most consequential results in the Ontario municipal election and what it means. Your daily Points of Interest news summaries appear below today’s special edition of To the Point. 

ONTARIO MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

Progressive Organizing Put Bradford’s Campaign Underwater 

Brad Bradford fought a very strong campaign, and polls suggested it was going to be close, as we also predicted. His campaign nailed all the key issues that resonated with voters: crime, congestion, and Torontonians’ cost of living. As we had forecast, all the conditions were ripe for a change election.

Unfortunately for Bradford, in hindsight, his best chance of unseating Olivia Chow was undermined by his proposal for a policy designed by the province for smaller municipalities. Bradford’s support for a municipal services corporation for Toronto Water was a proverbial shot in the foot. Toronto Water would become a public utility, but the policy was too difficult to explain in plain language to voters. It appears to have been a deciding factor in this campaign.

Let’s be clear, though. Bradford’s support for a municipal services corporation on its own didn’t organically drive Chow’s supporters to the polls. Bradford’s campaign may have been well organized and executed its tasks over the course of the election, but Chow’s campaign was a juggernaut of progressive political organizing. Union- and NDP-affiliated interest groups like Progress Toronto helped mobilize about two thousand volunteers who knocked on doors, distributed literature and supported other functions of the campaign.

Chow may have been down, but she wasn’t out. Her campaign fended off a formidable opponent in a city whose mood was open to change. The Bradford campaign gave her a political gift that she latched on to, making the fear of privatized water services—which Chow alleged Bradford’s policy amounted to—a rallying point that supercharged her supporters. They showed up at the polls to stop Bradford, helping push turnout in Toronto’s election to 45%.

It’s going to be business as usual at Toronto City Hall but cranked to eleven with a very left-wing council. Toronto’s progressive candidates received a mandate to deliver on their policy positions, and they will not look a gift horse in the mouth. Expect the issues that dominated the race to persist through Chow’s second term.

Tedjo Takes It

It took almost no time to see the writing on the wall. Alvin Tedjo, right out of the gate, demonstrated that campaigns matter, took on two political heavyweights and won. Tedjo won convincingly with 72,960 votes. Incumbent Carolyn Parrish finished a very distant second, and Bonnie Crombie finished an even more distant third. We called this a toss-up, but the result was anything but.

The voters of Mississauga sent a very clear message. They were dissatisfied with Parrish’s leadership after just two years and were not prepared to give her a second chance. The same went for Bonnie Crombie. Voters rejected the present and did not want to go back to the past. Instead, they were offered a future vision for Mississauga that included a two-year freeze on the city-controlled portion of property taxes.

Politicos close to the Tedjo campaign say the campaign was firing on all cylinders from day one and simply outhustled Parrish, who stuck to traditional methods of campaigning. Bonnie hoped to reconstitute her winning campaign machine. That failed to materialize. A lesson for future incumbents: you can’t take anything for granted. Sometimes the difference comes down to how much blood, sweat and tears you are willing to put in to win.

But what does Tedjo’s victory mean for the business of council, especially as it relates to development? Tedjo has promised to create the Mississauga Housing Corporation, a city-led vehicle to identify development opportunities, bring landowners and builders together, and require affordable housing in the resulting projects. The corporation would identify underused municipal and privately owned properties that could accommodate housing and bring together landowners, private builders and non-profit housing providers to advance development. While we are optimistic that Tedjo will be supportive of new development projects, we will proceed with caution as we wait for the final details of his proposed Mississauga Housing Corporation to be released.

The Upsets and Shockers

We can’t recall a municipal election cycle with so many upsets. In Bradford West Gwillimbury, a race that observers thought would primarily be a contest between deputy mayor Raj Sandhu and incumbent mayor James Leduc ended with veteran and town councillor Nickolas Harper besting the field, taking 30.7% of the vote. Peter Ferragine finished second with 28.4%. Sandhu and Leduc finished third and fifth, respectively. Observers see Harper’s victory as a signal that policies restricting growth will dominate Bradford West Gwillimbury’s new council.

Jim Diodati was upset by two-term Niagara Falls city councillor Lori Lococo, who ran on a message of transparency, a commitment to scrutinize spending, a focus on basic infrastructure, and support for building within existing urban boundaries. Political circles in the Niagara Region say that Diodati failed to take his challenger seriously, especially the coalescing of union and NDP-affiliated interest groups around Lococo. He snapped out of complacency too late, and Lococo, like Tedjo in Mississauga, outcampaigned Diodati. It may not be a total loss for Diodati. There is a vacancy for Niagara Regional Chair.

Notable upsets in Halton Region include long-time Milton mayor Gordon Krantz losing to Ward 1 councillor George Minakakis, who was only elected to council in a 2025 byelection. Minakakis ran on messages of affordability, economic development, and a new era of leadership in a town that hadn’t seen a change in the mayor’s seat since 1980.

In Oakville, incumbent mayor Rob Burton, who was first elected in 2006 and won five consecutive terms, was bested by twenty-six-year veteran Ward 5 councillor Jeff Knoll, who won seven consecutive terms before running for the mayor’s seat. Like Diodati, Burton’s political career may not come to an end, as the Ford government is expected to name regional chairs in the coming days, and Burton may be in line for the job.

The results in Caledon’s race to replace Annette Groves were another major surprise, with Christina Early defeating Mario Russo. The two Peel regional councillors were the heavyweights in the race. While Russo was seen as the most likely replacement for outgoing mayor Groves, the conditions on the ground delivered a different result. Observers point to the passage of twelve zoning bylaws shortly before the election, approving zoning changes at an unusually rapid pace and scale. Early picked up on a simmering sentiment among voters who saw their community changing more quickly than they were comfortable with and promised to temper the speed of development.

Horwath’s defeat in Hamilton was largely a verdict on her management of City Hall. Property taxes rose more than 21% over the council term, while concerns about housing, homelessness and municipal spending left voters questioning what they were getting in return. The tiny-shelter project, which saw estimated costs climb from $2.8 million to $7.9 million, reinforced concerns about project oversight. Horwath also struggled to articulate a compelling second-term vision, leaving room for Loomis to campaign on consensus-building and a change in leadership style. Hamilton voters replaced a highly progressive mayor with a challenger offering a more centrist approach to governance.

The Expected Results and New Faces

No surprise that the biggest victories of the evening included Patrick Brown in Brampton, Steven Del Duca in Vaughan, and Frank Scarpitti in Markham. These are very popular incumbents who entered the election in strong positions and faced no serious threat to their hold on office.

Durham municipalities saw some new faces ascend to the mayor’s chair. Marilyn Crawford won with 61% of the vote in Ajax to replace Shaun Collier, who did not seek re-election. Dan Carter did not seek re-election in Oshawa, where Tito-Dante Marimpietri won the top job with 38% of the vote. The incumbent advantage offered little protection in Clarington and Scugog, where Tom Dingwall bested Adrian Foster and Ian McDougall beat Wilma Wotten, respectively.

The Big Takeaways

Two things stand out more than anything during this election cycle. First, campaigns matter. No election cycle in recent memory stands out more than 2026 for how much the effective functioning of all campaign elements—messaging, platform formation, voter identification, and get-out-the-vote—made a difference. The incumbent advantage meant little in several key races. Even successful incumbents, like Olivia Chow, were made nervous by strong contenders. The successful challengers identified political weaknesses and opportunities, crafted a resonant campaign message, and fought like hell to win.

Second, resistance to the pace and scale of development played a major role in several key races. In municipalities targeted by Premier Ford for changes to facilitate faster development, candidates who supported or were quietly indifferent to these policies suffered losses. Bradford West Gwillimbury, Caledon, Oakville, Innisfil, New Tecumseth and Niagara Falls, among others, all saw a changing of the guard in favour of candidates who vowed to pump the brakes on the province’s moves.

Will the results in these municipalities prompt the Premier to double down on his approach, now that the next municipal election is four years away, or will he pivot to addressing the growth-related concerns these newly elected officials represent?

Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group

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