To the Point for the Week of August 30, 2026

To the Point for the Week of August 30, 2026

Here we are at the last long weekend of the summer. We are going to keep it short and sweet this week, so you can enjoy the last remanence of the summer heat as the Earth’s northern hemisphere gently tilts away from the sun, soon to usher in sweater weather. 

From all of us at ONpoint Strategy Group, have a wonderful Labour Day long weekend. 

The Ontario byelection results confirm the status quo, despite what others may tell you, and the federal government moves at a speed Canadians have come to expect.

ONTARIO

Don’t Call it a Comeback

The more things change, the more they stay the same, so they say.

And that’s essentially what happened Thursday night as a triple-header of provincial byelections was held in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, York—Simcoe, and Scarborough Southwest. The former two ridings were previously held by PC MPPs Neil Lumsden and former cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, while the latter was held by former NDP MPP-turned-Liberal MP Doly Begum. There was no change following Thursday’s vote as the PCs held on to Hamilton East—Stoney Creek and York—Simcoe, while the NDP retained the Scarborough riding, for which former Ontario Liberal Party leadership contender Nathaniel Erskine-Smith failed to secure his party’s nomination.

The simplest takeaway from Thursday’s results for the PCs is simply nothing gained, nothing lost. In other words, the status quo was upheld, but others would disagree.

A very experienced and intelligent politico close to the Ontario PC Party was insistent that Thursday’s byelections weren’t simply an indication of the status quo in Ontario politics. On the contrary, he argued that a summer of polling that put the Liberals ahead of the PCs—and Ford personally—demonstrated that this was anything but a return to the status quo. If anything, this was a demonstration that observers shouldn’t count the Premier down and out when he is trailing in the polls.

To him, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is not a PC safe riding, even though Lumsden won it twice—in 2022 and 2025—and the PCs held it with a non-star candidate. No shade being thrown at Jeff Beattie. Lumsden is a four-time Grey Cup winner and Canadian Football Hall of Famer. Beattie won by 1,614 votes with 38.87% of the vote—not a landslide, but enough to keep a riding the PCs had only flipped in 2022.

However, the PCs have held York—Simcoe since the riding’s inception, when the late PC MPP Julia Munro was elected there in 2007. Munro had also represented the predecessor area in York North since 1995. So PC candidate Susan Lahey’s victory isn’t a surprise whatsoever. Lahey won nearly half the vote, taking 49.81% and defeating her nearest competitor by 2,549 votes.

Scarborough Southwest wasn’t a surprise either. Begum had held the riding since 2018, stealing it from Ontario Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti. The Ontario Liberals thought they had a shot to take it from Stiles’ Dippers, but Ahsanul Hafiz couldn’t best Fatima Shaban. Hafiz’s victory over Nathaniel Erskine-Smith in the riding’s controversial Ontario Liberal Party nomination race may have saved NES and the Ontario Liberals from a much more serious embarrassment. Shaban won with 40.47% of the vote, a margin of 2,240 votes.

This is a status quo result not simply because the seat count at Queen’s Park remains stable, but because political volatility and uncertainty due to the trade war is the status quo. Just like during the 2022 election, during COVID, the political, social, and economic uncertainty and volatility produced during that period was the status quo. And just as we laid out in last week’s edition about where voters place their support during periods of perceived instability, the voters at the riding level were not prepared to change horses mid-race.

There is one important caveat: turnout was low. It was 29.25% in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, 21.0% in York—Simcoe, and 26.5% in Scarborough Southwest. These results are meaningful, but three low-turnout local contests are not a province-wide referendum.

So long as Trump’s spectre hovers over the province’s economy and politics, don’t expect to see much change, even if two midsummer polls suggest otherwise.

FEDERAL

“At Speeds We Haven’t Seen in Generations”

Prime Minister Mark Carney set a grand expectation for his newly elected government on election night, April 28, 2025. Carney proclaimed: “We will need to think big and act bigger. We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven’t seen in generations.”

It was a bold commitment and set an incredibly high bar for results, especially after years in which Canadians had steadily lowered their expectations of government’s capacity, and willingness, to act in consequential ways.

Speed is relative. The Earth spins at approximately 1,670 km/h. Compare that to gas giants like Jupiter, which spins at about 45,000 km/h, and suddenly Earth’s rotation does not seem that fast at all.

The lightning-speed message Carney committed to on election night was the cornerstone of his signature campaign promises. In Carney’s May 21, 2025, mandate letter to cabinet, he wrote: “Canada must build an enormous amount of new infrastructure at speeds not seen in generations.”

At the launch of his Major Projects Office (MPO) on August 29, 2025, Carney declared: “We are moving at a speed not seen in generations to build ports, railways, energy grids, the major projects that will unlock Canada’s full economic potential.”

On October 15, 2025, Toronto’s Downsview was selected as the first site for the federal government’s modular housing plan. The Prime Minister posted to X: “We’re going to build homes at speeds not seen in generations.”

And even as recently as August 25, when announcing a community centre expansion in Mapleton, Ontario, Minister of Housing and Infrastructure Gregor Robertson insisted: “The Government of Canada is building infrastructure at a speed and scale not seen in generations.”

The theme of generational change remains the linchpin of the Carney government’s messaging. But a gap is emerging between ambition and delivery. Over time, that gap will become a political problem.

The two most glaring examples of that gap rest in the expectations set around housing and the Major Projects Office.

Housing is where the rhetoric runs furthest ahead of the results. Carney campaigned on doubling the pace of homebuilding to roughly 500,000 homes a year. Build Canada Homes was then launched with the promise of building at a pace not seen in generations. But the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. In July, housing starts in Canada’s larger urban centres were down 19% from a year earlier. The six-month trend in housing starts sat at an annualized pace of roughly 247,000 homes, about half of the government’s 500,000-home objective.

Build Canada Homes is not standing still. Projects have been announced, partnerships are being signed, and units are beginning to enter the pipeline. But that is the point. They are in the pipeline. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates the agency will add about 26,000 homes over five years, equal to a 2.1% increase over what would otherwise have been built. That is progress. It is not a generational surge in construction.

The same gap is apparent at the Major Projects Office. Bill C-5 was sold as the tool that would finally move nationally important projects through Ottawa’s approval maze at an unprecedented pace. The MPO has built a growing list of projects, and the government has begun work to designate several as being in the national interest. Carney does deserve credit for The Contrecœur Container Terminal expansion at The Port of Montréal that broke ground in April. The project is a real and visible early accomplishment for the Major Projects Office.

But one project does not establish a new national pace. More than a year after Bill C-5 became law, the government had started the process of considering projects for fast-track status, but had not officially listed a project under the Building Canada Act itself. The first potential listing, Alberta’s proposed West Coast oil pipeline, is expected this fall. Even there, early construction is not anticipated until 2027.

That is the distinction Carney’s government will increasingly have to answer for. It has moved quickly to create offices, pass legislation, announce funding, select sites, sign agreements, and develop project lists. Those are not meaningless accomplishments. They are often necessary first steps.

But Canadians were not promised a faster process. They were promised things previously thought impossible, done at speeds not seen in generations. The test is no longer whether the government can announce what it intends to build. It is whether Canadians can see homes, railways, ports, energy projects, and community infrastructure rising fast enough to meet the standard Carney set for himself.

Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group

ABOUT TO THE POINT

To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."