To the Point for the Week of December 7, 2025
To the Point for the Week of December 7, 2025
Both the House of Commons and Ontario’s Legislative Assembly adjourn for the holidays. The former ended with a whisper. The latter saw a key personnel change in a critical diplomatic post.
ONTARIO
And That’s a Wrap, Folks
With Christmas fewer than two weeks away, and with no pressing legislative initiatives on the docket that really could not wait for the New Year, the Ford government decided to wrap things up a week early. As we noted in our To the Point for the Week of November 23, the government has expended most of its political energy, as well as its political capital, leaving very little gas left in the tank to push through anything still sitting on the order paper.
Early adjournments, much like cabinet shuffles, are tactical tools that give governments a bit of breathing room to make strategic adjustments and reset internal power dynamics. An early adjournment is generally understood to reset the agenda and reboot priorities, and to avoid the perception of a government limping toward the end of a session.
An extended break gives a government the chance to recalibrate its strategy and return with a fresh focus, especially if one policy issue starts to overtake another on the priority list. For example, current economic conditions suggest that while U.S. tariffs are having an impact on the economy, the worst-case scenarios have not materialized. We expect the simmering trade tensions to give way to an increased focus on energy and electrification and housing in the upcoming session.
Extended breaks also give the government an opportunity to pay attention to internal party dynamics. We anticipate this is where the cabinet shuffle we speculated on two weeks ago will end up being executed. No parliamentary scrutiny, a press gallery eager to start the holidays, and a quieter political environment gives the government a window to sweep away any controversies they hope will not follow them into the new session.
In some cases, however, an early adjournment is used in response to a major legislative defeat or scandal, either to avoid investigations or to prevent a confidence vote. The Premier and his cabinet have faced steady pressure from the opposition over the last few months, but the government has managed, at least for now, to navigate these choppy waters for smoother sailing come the New Year, assuming no storm clouds are forming on the horizon. The early adjournment effectively resets the news cycle. Any controversies or bad press will quickly fade as Ontarians, and intrepid journalists, disengage from political drama and focus on family, festivities, and food.
Several bills currently making their way through the legislature will simply be picked up where they left off when the legislature adjourned, including Bill 75 Keeping Criminals Behind Bars Act. Bill 75 is a large omnibus bill that passed Second Reading on December 11. When the legislature reconvenes for the Spring sitting, Bill 75 will move to a Standing Committee for public hearings where witnesses will be called to testify about the bill, after which it will proceed to a Third Reading and final passage.
When the legislature returns on March 23, 2026, the government will step back into a changed political landscape. A break of this length gives the Premier time to adjust priorities, manage internal dynamics, and prepare for a year that will be shaped by affordability pressures, energy demands, and whatever comes next on the U.S. trade front. The spring sitting will show whether this early adjournment provided the reset the government was looking for or simply pushed today’s challenges a little further down the road.
FEDERAL
Changing of the Guard
While not officially announced, Prime Minister Carney is expected to name Mark Wiseman as the new Canadian Ambassador to the United States. It would be a notable departure from recent practice. Wiseman would replace Kirsten Hillman, who has served in the role since March 2020 and is one of the longest serving ambassadors to the U.S. in modern Canadian history. Wiseman’s experience and reputation as a deal maker was born in the highest levels of finance, molded by it. He’s served as a senior executive at the corporate behemoth BlackRock and as CEO of the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB).
His appointment is considered a significant break from diplomatic tradition. Wiseman has no political experience, except perhaps in corporate back rooms where politics intersects with business. Yet his pending selection is seen as an attempt by the Carney government to send an important message to Wall Street’s investment funds, multinationals, and think tanks that shape economic policy: an end to the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will ratchet up negative pressure on supply chains, directly impacting quarterly earnings and long-term asset valuations. The thinking in the PMO is that Trump may ignore diplomats and bureaucrats, but he can’t ignore the U.S. financial sector in the city he called home for most of his life. Wiseman’s job is to mobilize this sector as a force multiplier for Canadian interests.
The timing of his ascension to the role is very interesting. Statistics Canada reported this week that the country posted its first trade surplus since the start of the trade conflict, snapping a seven-month consecutive streak of trade deficits. Exports surged 6.3% and imports fell 4.1%, representing a $153 million surplus in September, compared to the $6.4 million deficit for the month of August.
Why is this politically important?
The Prime Minister has signalled that the United States does not intend to withdraw from CUSMA. This contrasts with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s recent comments at the Atlantic Council, where he insisted that either withdrawing from CUSMA or negotiating stand-alone bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico were options. Carney and Leblanc chalk this talk up to negotiating tactics. Private conversations have indicated that the U.S. recognizes the importance of trilateral trade. After all, the 6.3% surplus was largely driven by exports to the United States, while the 4.1% drop reflected a pullback in U.S. imports that appears to be tied, at least in part, to Canadians avoiding discretionary spending on American goods. Canada may be heading into CUSMA negotiations with leverage. The next few months of economic data will indicate whether this is material or whether September’s surplus was an outlier.
All political appointments come with political baggage. Wiseman’s is no different. He is a Carney confidante and longtime friend. He was Carney’s bagman for his leadership and general election campaigns. He was appointed to the Canada-US advisory council after Carney’s election win. All this may point to a political decision based on trustworthiness and experience, but Canadians may view this as a shrewd attempt to elevate Bay Street over Main Street. After all, the whole point of electing Mark Carney and the Liberals was to alleviate the financial and economic pressures facing middle- and working-class Canadians. Wiseman’s selection raises questions about whose interests he will be representing during negotiations.
Wiseman also remains Chair of the Board of the Century Initiative. His impact on Canadian politics in that role has been felt for over ten years. The Century Initiative’s specific focus since 2011 was advocating for the increase of Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100 through significant increases in permanent economic migrants. He is seen as a facilitator of Canada’s surge in immigration during the Trudeau years, serving as a key member of then-Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth. Alongside Dominic Barton, another close ally of the Prime Minister, he co-wrote the Council’s economic blueprint for Canada based on using massive population increases to drive GDP. In short, Wiseman was the intellectual godfather of the Liberal government’s high-growth (immense failure) immigration and economic strategy, providing the “business case” that justified the policies Pierre Poilievre now attacks and of which Canadians have grown wary.
Taken together, Wiseman’s expected appointment tells us less about Washington and more about Ottawa. The Carney government appears prepared to fight the next phase of CUSMA negotiations on economic terrain, leaning on capital markets and financial leverage rather than diplomatic convention. That strategy may prove effective in Trump’s Washington. But it also sharpens a political risk at home: reinforcing the perception that this government instinctively turns to Bay Street to solve problems being felt most acutely on Main Street. Whether Wiseman succeeds abroad may matter less than how this choice is received domestically.
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