To the Point for the Week of February 22, 2026
What a difference a year makes in Ontario politics. Poilievre attempts a reset in an tough political environment.
ONTARIO
Time Flies
Yesterday marked exactly one year since the Ontario PC Party, led by Premier Doug Ford, secured its third consecutive majority mandate. The political environment at the time heavily favoured the government.
While housing and affordability were among top concerns, voters were squarely focused on Trump’s tariffs and the resulting economic chaos and uncertainty. Although pollsters detected change sentiment, including Abacus reporting that 57% of voters said it was time for a change, Ford and his party were still broadly viewed as the most trustworthy and competent to lead the province through the turmoil. The PCs maintained a mid-40% lead throughout the campaign and secured a resounding victory.
Ford and his party’s polling position largely remained unchanged but dominant throughout 2025. The PCs’ mid-40 point positioning at the end of the campaign surged as high as the low 50s, with Ford’s personal numbers reaching a multi-year high and the Ontario Liberals trailing by over 20 points. Firmly in control, large regional and demographic leads, coupled with a leaderless Ontario Liberal Party, figuratively and literally, made the Ford PCs’ armour appear almost impenetrable.
But we all know time flies when you’re having fun, and if early polling trends are any indication, the fun may be coming to an abrupt halt for the PCs in 2026.
While the PCs started the year in the high 40s, public sentiment began to shift. Voters’ disapproval of the government began to inch upward, sentiments in favour of change increased, and more Ontarians, about two-thirds according to Liaison, thought the province was on the wrong track. The gradual erosion trend continued into early February, where Abacus saw the PCs inch down to the low 40s while the Liberals remained stable. This week’s Liaison poll confirmed that trend, now pitting the Ford PCs and Ontario Liberals within a four-point margin. The PCs eased to the low 40s, with the Grits showing a modest bump to 36%.
Sure, we’re only one year into a four-year mandate, but the material tightening between the first and third place parties in the Ontario Legislature should force the PCs to take a step back, assess the current trends, and establish a course of action to initiate a reversal or at the very least stop the short-term slide. You see, it’s not the horse race numbers that should be most concerning; it’s the underlying sentiment that should be of greater concern for Ford.
The Liaison poll this week revealed that the ceiling for the Liberals is rising, again keeping in mind there is no leader in place. The Liberals also lead in the 416 by ten points and are statistically tied in the 905. Northern and Central Ontario are also troubling for the PCs, with Ford’s disapproval in the mid 60s and north of 70 in some regions. According to Liaison, the PCs’ resiliency in Southwest Ontario is largely being held up by the Protect Ontario ad blitz throughout the region. Without the TV spots, the PCs may very well be underwater there as well.
The surface level reasons for the PCs’ decline in support can arguably, in part, be attributed to a perception of limited policy impact. The bulk of the government’s response to tariffs has focused on creating economic resiliency through increased government funding to business and developing resource infrastructure. However, little has been done to make structural changes aimed at increasing productivity, competitiveness, and foreign investment. For example, the government has not undertaken any serious or rapid tax or regulatory overhaul, defaulting instead to infrastructure spending, short term relief funds, and loan programs like the $1 billion Protect Ontario Financing Program and the $150 million Ontario Together Trade Fund, on top of capital injections into Invest Ontario and the Skills Development Fund. These programs were not designed to deliver structural productivity or competitiveness reforms.
The public is noticing. The perception taking hold is that the government is spending heavily to manage the symptoms of the trade war without fundamentally strengthening Ontario’s long term economic footing. In fact, according to Abacus, about half of respondents say the government’s actions are making things worse.
Below the surface rests a brand issue, not for the PCs, but for the Ontario Liberals. The federal Liberal brand is smoking hot right now, both for the party and for the Prime Minister. Consequently, the Ontario Liberals are getting a residual bump from the feds’ economic moves, riding the coattails of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s international travels in search of new markets, inking trade and investment MOUs, and at least putting in an earnest effort to develop resources.
We don’t have firm polling data to verify that provincial voting intentions are directly linked to the federal Liberal brand, or whether voters are consciously making that connection. However, the remarkable recovery of the federal Liberal brand under Carney is clearly blowing wind into the sails of the Ontario Liberal Party, which struggled to improve its brand under Bonnie Crombie. With MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith fully invested in another run at the provincial Liberal leadership, it stands to reason that he will lean into an improved Liberal brand to strengthen the provincial party’s momentum.
Time flies. So does political capital. One year ago the PCs looked untouchable. Today they look governable, but no longer invulnerable. The question heading into 2026 is not whether they can win again, but whether they can arrest the slow erosion before it becomes something more permanent.
FEDERAL
The Limits of a Reset
It was a busy February for Liaison Strategies. Just weeks before they were in the field conducting their latest Ontario poll we noted above, Liaison was collecting data on voter sentiments on the federal horse race. Conducted between February 9th and 21st, Liaison shows the Liberals opening a 12-point lead over the Tories, with Carney’s job approval reaching 63%, versus 32% who disapprove. Poilievre continues to be buoyed by strong support among decided voters and a positive approval rating in the West, but nationally, 57% of voters disapprove, while only 32% approve of his leadership.
The timing comes as speculation over a federal election has been a slow boil. Almost a year since being sworn in as Prime Minister, Carney continues to benefit from a combination of perceived competence, experience, and a statesman-like temperament alongside improving polling for the Liberals. Add Conservative caucus defections to the mix, and observers are left pondering whether Carney is considering an attempt to consolidate the Liberal comeback by calling a snap election.
The benefit is crystal clear. Majority-level polling and sky-high personal approval mean Carney could turn a working majority in a minority setting into a stable majority mandate. The timing is optimal too. The NDP has no leader, and their only Quebec MP is making the provincial switch. Poilievre’s leadership is regarded as weakening, both internally and externally, and securing a majority now would avoid fighting an election when experts expect the economy to soften.
The risks, however, are real. Voters could see the move as cynically opportunistic and return Parliament to a minority status quo. The volatility of campaigns could result in Liberals snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And don’t say it could never happen. Liberals were polling in clear majority territory heading into election day last year, only to secure a minority. Parties have paid the price assuming massive polling leads are guaranteed wins. Adrian Dix’s NDP blew a double-digit lead over the BC Liberals, led by Christy Clark, allowing the Liberals to secure another majority in 2013. Besides, all Carney really needs to do is wait out the results of the three upcoming by-elections in Terrebonne (Quebec), University–Rosedale (Christia Freeland’s old riding), and Scarborough Southwest. The only one that is essentially a toss-up is Terrebonne, but even a loss there puts Carney within a single seat of a majority. That theoretically can easily be fixed with another floor crosser.
Poilievre is hoping the Liberals see the costs outweighing the benefits to give him runway to relaunch his own image and brand. We noted in last week’s To the Point that the Conservative Party Leader’s leadership was eroding. However, this week, Poilievre gave a very well received speech on Canada-US relations at the Economic Club of Canada. His remarks framed his new image as a patriotic reset on Trump, rejecting 51st state attacks and affirming Canada’s political and economic sovereignty. It was less sloganeering and more honing and articulating his policy package, most notably a proposed tariff-free auto pact with the United States that would create a tariff-free auto zone across North America and serve as a beachhead against Chinese electric vehicles.
For Poilievre, the more things change, the more they stay the same. By that we mean that his policy proposals are largely the same, which were solid to begin with, but are now reinforced with a more measured tone and political maturity. Whether it is enough to motivate soft Liberal voters to give Poilievre a second chance remains to be seen.
We’ll see soon enough, but right now the reality is bleak for the Conservatives, with two things working against them. First, for as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States, the Conservatives’ electoral prospects will be slim. The Tories will be forced to fight a defensive election. Any time the President opens his mouth, they will immediately be put on the defensive, denouncing his rhetoric and having to explain why they don’t align with MAGA, etcetera. This environment may completely negate any sound policy proposals or personal rebranding of the Conservative leader.
Second, while the Tories could make the case that the Liberals under Carney have not really achieved anything, voters generally like what Carney is doing and the direction of the country, which is easy to achieve given the state of the economy over the last ten years. Going from 0 to 1 is still a 100% increase. Recognizing this, Canadians are very willing to give Carney the benefit of the doubt and the opportunity to finish what he’s started. However, that public mood is not on sound footing.
While the polling trends favour the Liberals, it may not be enough for the Grits to call a snap election. That’s the opportunity for Poilievre. His reset is real, measured, disciplined, and policy focused. Tone alone, however, does not reverse polls or change the terrain.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.