To the Point for the Week of January 25, 2026
To the Point for the Week of January 25, 2026
Is the Premier campaigning? The Tories convene a critical conservative convention.
ONTARIO
“Not Yet.”
Businesses shuttered. Schools closed. Emergency orders extended. The COVID-19 pandemic was rapidly spreading by May 2020, forcing the Premier to take drastic, controversial measures that at the time were believed to be essential to stopping the spread of the virus. Despite the widespread fear, anger, and confusion, there was a light-hearted moment that in hindsight was not just an off-handed joke, but perhaps an explicit foreshadowing of the Premier’s plans for his political future.
“Not yet,” the Premier said with a grin in response to a reporter mistakenly referring to the Premier as Prime Minister during one of his daily COVID-19 news conferences. “You called me Prime Minister, and I just said not yet,” he added, clarifying his comment. The press gallery had a good laugh.
But what if it wasn’t a joke?
That was six years ago, and speculation about the Premier’s long-term political ambition of becoming Prime Minister as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada has ebbed and flowed ever since. The recent signals of the Premier’s ambitions have been subtle, and fly under the radar for most, but they have been more frequent as of late in the lead-up to the Ontario PC Party’s convention this weekend. The Premier’s increased vocality on hot-button federal issues, coupled with the timing of the convention, may lead many to ask: is he laying the groundwork for a federal Conservative leadership run?
The Premier’s recent public statements on several hot federal issues may be by design and indicate his attempt to establish a conservative leadership narrative that would appeal to the Conservative Party’s base, as well as their broader basket of supporters. His remarks walk a fine line between appealing to the base and the broader pool of small “c” conservatives.
For example, the Premier’s visceral reaction to Prime Minister Carney’s overture to China, specifically the plan to allow an initial 49,000 Chinese-made electric vehicles into the Canadian market, speaks to a near universal mistrust of the Chinese Communist Party among the Tory base. On the other hand, the Prime Minister’s reassurance that the new federal auto task force would be designed to enforce the conditions of China’s market access, namely that the vehicles are built here, parts are locally sourced, keep Canadian intellectual property within the country, and protect local jobs, appeal to more pragmatic conservatives.
The Premier also took a strong stance against the federal government’s gun buy-back (confiscation) program. Gun rights are a uniquely conservative position. The Premier’s defiance in the face of what essentially amounts to repossessing private property appeals to the most hardened supporters on the right. Even more so, Ford emphasized the essential need to tackle crime, especially violent crime committed with illegal guns.
Most recently, Ford tackled simmering separatism to his East and West and reaffirmed his commitment to being a unifier. He called on Danielle Smith to denounce the separatists who held meetings with Trump officials. “It would be a disaster for the country if the separatists got elected,” the Premier said of the Parti Québécois, which is leading polls in Quebec ahead of the next provincial election. At the First Ministers’ meetings this week, the Premier continued his pledge to Team Canada, saying, “I’m going to continue defending Ontario and Canadians right across the board.” Ford is framing himself as a unifying candidate, one that can keep the country from breaking apart.
These comments would be innocuous if not coupled with the fact that the Ontario PC Party convention taking place this weekend in Etobicoke was explicitly scheduled to conflict with the Conservative Party of Canada’s convention taking place in Calgary. Ford’s chief campaign architect, Kory Teneycke, confirmed as much on the Curse of Politics podcast. According to Teneycke, the federal and provincial conservative parties have diverged from being two sides of the same conservative coin. The idea is to avoid muddying the waters between two distinct positions held by the respective parties; one that wins and one that does not. Teneycke’s admission can also be seen as a deliberate tactic to draw some attention away from Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is facing his own leadership test this weekend. The content and tone of Ford’s comments during the fireside chat this afternoon, as well as the dinner event later in the evening, will be very telling as to whether all the above-mentioned signals are indicative of a carefully laid out political roadmap, or just a pissing match between two conservative camps.
If all of this is true, and the Premier is gearing up to lead the federal party, his operating assumption must be that the Prime Minister will call an election this spring or summer and that, given the current political environment, Carney will win regardless of whether the result is a majority or minority. The predictable consequence of another Carney victory will be the resignation of Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Tories. Ford can then begin organizing to run for the top job.
But could he pull it off?
Ford’s advantages include a unique ability to combine retail populism along with a more establishment type of politicking. He has recognition and a proven ability to win repeatedly, something that is increasingly at risk if Ford tempts fate for a fourth straight provincial win and a trait lacking in federal Conservative leaders since Stephen Harper.
The flipside is the Premier has struggled getting done the things he has so many times promised to get done. Healthcare continues to face significant challenges. Housing activity has slowed markedly. The Premier’s approval ratings have moved into negative territory, and he may face an uphill battle if he chooses to run primarily on his record of accomplishments outside of his undefeated performance during the writ. Even more so, the Premier’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the perception among the Conservative base that Ford handed Carney the election by not supporting Poilievre.
FEDERAL
The Members Have Spoken
Canada’s conservatives converge in Calgary this weekend for the Conservative Party of Canada’s 2026 policy convention. Party faithful will schmooze and mingle with their right-wing paramours, debate and vote on policy, elect a party executive, and, most crucially, conduct a leadership review of Pierre Poilievre.
Poilievre’s review comes during a challenging period for the party. Polls consistently put the Conservatives in a 6 to 7 (no, not that 6–7) point deficit to the Liberals. A recent Léger poll pegged the Liberals as high as 47% following Carney’s trips to Beijing, Doha, and Davos. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s favourability has increased. Pierre Poilievre’s is backsliding, stemming from the Tory leader’s inability to shake the perceptions and criticisms that hung over him in the last election. Perceptions of a divisive style of leadership, poor campaign personnel decisions, and failure to articulate an appealing alternative to the Liberals on his response to US tariffs continue to linger over Poilievre.
The convention is being closely watched as a test of whether grassroots members still believe Poilievre has what it takes to win the next election. Poilievre and his supporters can point to silver linings that—depending on who you talk to—soften the blow from squandering a 20+ point polling advantage in late 2024 and early 2025. The party secured the highest share of the popular vote (43%) since 1988, gained roughly three million additional votes compared to the previous election, picked up 24 seats, and won over voters chiefly concerned about affordability, crime, and immigration.
Poilievre needed to secure 50% support to remain leader. Most observers predicted he would land somewhere between 60% and 70%, but history suggests even those numbers are no guarantee of continued employment as leader. Erin O’Toole secured 73% yet was forced out months later. Andrew Scheer received 50% and resigned shortly after. Stephen Harper set an exceptionally high bar in 2005, drawing 85% support after coming within 99 seats of the Martin Liberals a year earlier. Harper went on to win two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority in 2011.
Could we be watching early glimpses of history repeating itself? Maybe. Pierre secured a convincing level of support by garnering 87% support from party members. We can now put to rest weeks of speculation regarding his political future. This settles the leadership question inside the party, not the one facing the country.
Poilievre’s speech before the leadership vote hit all the right tones for party members. Smaller government, unimpeded resource development, a strong military, protect gun owners, etcetera. The most telling part of his speech, squarely directed to the membership, was “one of the most important lessons I have gained from listening to you at this convention is that you told us to ignore the voices that keep telling us to abandon our Conservative principles.” Our view is this line secured his convincing review.
It’s all well and good that the membership was satisfied, but what about everyday Canadians, especially those who voted for Carney the last time around? Not the hardcore Libs, but those who care about the things the Conservatives campaigned on but were too squeamish on Poilievre. Did this speech appeal to them?
It was confident, coherent, and compelling, leaning further into the three issues that made the 2025 campaign competitive: affordability, crime, and immigration. Except this time Poilievre laid out policy initiatives, however preliminary, that did a very effective job at weaving in a vision of reforming the Canadian dream. Even Andrew Coyne, a longtime Poilievre critic, noted that Poilievre’s speech was solidly mainstream. It will be appealing to the broader voting public. It may not flip the tables, but Poilievre will be given a second chance.
With the leadership question settled, attention now turns to what comes next. Indications of an early election call are visible. Carney wants a majority. He needs a majority. He’s not going to get it with floor crossings, so he needs to create favourable political conditions should he need to pull the trigger early. He’s been very busy flying across the globe, racing to shore up his economic bona fides and shield himself from attacks that his criss-crossing serves political and economic elites, rather than everyday Canadians.
Sticking a thumb into Trump’s eye may work well enough, but the Liberals understand the polls are showing that affordability and the cost of living are just as important to Canadians as dealing with Donald Trump. This helps explain the Prime Minister’s announcement of the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit. Economists such as Jack Mintz argue the rebate is simply another costly social program that masquerades as tax fairness.
Calling the road ahead an uphill battle for Poilievre is an understatement. Poilievre is not just running against the Liberal Party of Canada machine; he is also swimming against a media ecosystem consumed by Donald Trump twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. Every day, Poilievre risks being framed, fairly or not, as unable, unwilling, or unprepared to take on Trump. That perception, regardless of its accuracy, will be one of the core metrics voters use to judge his readiness to lead the country.
Canada’s economy is no longer slowing quietly; it is stalling in plain sight, and the numbers are beginning to stack up. Real GDP was flat in November, following a 0.3% contraction in October, according to Statistics Canada. Manufacturing output fell 1.3% in a single month, with motor vehicles and parts among the largest drags on growth. Even the early estimate for December offers little comfort, coming in at just +0.1%, a rounding error rather than a rebound. Taken together, the data point to a real risk that Q4 GDP contracted on an annualized basis, a threshold that tends to shift the conversation in Ottawa from “soft landing” to damage control.
Trade is actively making things worse. Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $2.2 billion in November, up from $395 million in October. Exports fell 2.8% month-over-month, driven by declines in gold shipments and autos and parts, while imports were essentially flat. In other words, Canada is exporting less, not importing more, a sign of weakening external demand. For a trade-dependent economy, that combination is toxic, particularly when it coincides with declining industrial output at home.
The political implications are uncomfortable for the Carney Liberals, but potentially fertile ground for Poilievre and the Conservatives. Flat growth, contracting manufacturing, and a ballooning trade deficit undercut any narrative of economic momentum, especially as households continue to feel price pressure with little evidence of rising productivity or real wage growth. The economic conditions are deteriorating in ways that usually favour opposition parties, not incumbents, and that window will not stay open indefinitely. A stalled economy, eroding confidence, and a government leaning on rebates instead of growth create an opening, but only for a leader who can project discipline, seriousness, and credibility beyond the base. If this convention marks a reset, it will be because Poilievre proves he can convert internal legitimacy into a broader governing case.
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