To the Point for the Week of July 6, 2025
To the Point for the Week of July 6, 2025
A grand alliance forms to hold the Prime Minister to his word on nation-building projects. Domestic politics may have handcuffed the Prime Minister on negotiations with the United States.
ONTARIO
A Grand Alliance Forms
The Calgary Stampede, also known as “the greatest outdoor show on Earth,” was the backdrop of the annual congregation of elected officials, business leaders, and various politicos from across the country in the great city of Calgary. It’s a chance to ditch the suits and don a Stetson and leather boots to take in Western Canadian culture, traditions, and hospitality. And it makes for great photo ops, that is, if you can successfully flip a pancake, which should just be good fun and not an indication of a politician’s competence or relatability.
The political gatherings during the Stampede had a different vibe this year, as Alberta’s resources and its place in the nation were in the spotlight. The federal government’s Bill C-5 has given way to cautious optimism around resource development—an optimism buoyed this week by the news that, according to Prime Minister Carney, a new oil pipeline to Canada’s West Coast would “highly likely” be on the list of projects to be approved under the new legislation. It will be hard for Westerners not to take the Prime Minister’s comments seriously, as federal Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, just last week, stated that Trudeau-era climate policies – most notably the tanker ban in Bill C-69 and federal impact assessments – could be addressed (or potentially repealed, although unlikely in full) “over time.”
While there is confidence, so far, that the Prime Minister is sincere in approving nation-building oil pipelines, there is anticipation and angst among many Westerners waiting for the other shoe to drop. After all, the Prime Minister said it was “highly likely” that a pipeline would make the list, not a certainty. And Hodgson laid out no timeline or which specific Trudeau-era policy would be addressed.
Enter Premier Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Despite tensions between the two leaders at the outset of the US-Canada trade debacle, both leaders buried the hatchet this week and inked two memorandums of understanding that recognize their shared national interests and objectives under a new economic paradigm. The most significant of the two is a coordinated advancement of west-to-east pipelines as well as support for rail projects that would boost both oil and critical mineral exports.
Specifically, the memorandum supports both rail and oil pipeline infrastructure that would connect Alberta oil to southern Ontario refineries and export terminals, as well as a deep-sea port connection in James Bay for international export. The agreement also included support for a critical minerals rail network that would connect Ontario’s Ring of Fire region and western Canadian ports and processing facilities.
The two provincial leaders were steadfast in their explicit calls to repeal the coastal tanker ban, the Impact Assessment Act (many now see as irrelevant or redundant with the passage of Bill C-5), clean electricity regulations, the oil and gas emissions cap, and the electric vehicle mandate. Lastly, both leaders agree to lobby the federal government for regulatory certainty that would encourage private sector investment in these projects. The agreed-to measures will be reinforced by a feasibility study set for Fall 2025. It will be a joint comprehensive analysis of optimal routes, financing, and supply chain solutions. It will also examine various funding models, including public-private partnerships (also known as P3s), and Indigenous consultations.
Bill C-5 is the One Canadian Economy Act. The objective is to bring all 13 economies into one. “Build big, build bold, and build now” is the slogan and the objective is to remove barriers and speed up projects. The actions taken by Premier Ford and Premier Smith represent a significant forcing function on the federal government to live up to its promises. Ontario and Alberta are not satisfied with “highly likely” that a pipeline will be included in the fed’s conception of nation-building projects. They want more.
Building a pipeline, cross-country rail lines, or any other type of critical infrastructure isn’t merely checking a box to quell intra-provincial grievances, nor should it be a one-and-done. Ford and Smith understand that the nation is at a critical juncture and will require not just big dreams but bold action. To strengthen their alliance, both Ford and Smith’s next steps should be to expand its membership, bringing Manitoba and Saskatchewan into the fold where provincial interests intersect. A Western-Central grand alliance will make it politically risky for Carney to be conservative (no pun intended) on nation-building infrastructure projects and will isolate BC Premier David Eby, who has been less than enthused by the prospect of a pipeline making it to BC tidewater.
The greatest outdoor show on Earth may turn out to be the backdrop of the greatest comeback in Canadian history. With Alberta and Ontario aligning on energy, infrastructure, and national interest, this may represent the groundwork for a new era of economic cooperation and industrial resurgence. If Carney’s government is truly ready to build big and bold, this alliance may be the most critical step for the great Canadian comeback.
FEDERAL
Let’s Stop Pretending We Can do Without the United States
Here we go again. President Trump announced another round of potential 35% tariffs by August 1st if a tariff agreement is not reached. We’re starting to feel more and more like weatherman Phil Connors (played by Bill Murray), who found himself in a time loop, a cycle in which the same day repeats endlessly, in 1993’s Groundhog Day.
Connors is forced to relive the same experiences until something fundamentally changes in himself or his circumstances. It creates a sense of déjà vu, powerlessness, and eventually, the opportunity for transformation. It’s exactly where Canadians are now.
Just like in Groundhog Day, we’re caught in a repetitive cycle of threats, deadlines, extensions, and seemingly random or unresolved issues, like supply management. We haven’t seen the emergence – or even the semblance – of a potential solution, despite the never-ending talks. The fundamental problems, though we still have no clear line of sight into what those problems truly are, remain, leaving us stuck in a loop.
One could make the case, and many are, that political sloganeering may have complicated things for the Prime Minister in trade negotiations with the United States. Let’s not mince words here: the Liberals ran a very effective anti-American-style election campaign. “Elbows Up” and other variations riled the public into a frenzy, and panic, for some, who openly expressed their willingness to take up arms against a feared American military invasion. It won the Liberals the election, but it also bound Carney to unrealistic expectations among Canadians that we could very easily replace our economic relationship with the United States with the European Union and maintain a standard of living to which we are accustomed.
It turns out that’s not so easy to do. We cannot simply pivot away from the United States. Pivoting toward the EU may sound like a bold strategy, but it carries significant risks to Canada’s economic stability. The U.S. isn’t just our largest trading partner. It’s the backbone of our export market and supply chains. Even a partial shift would result in immediate losses, as Canadian goods would lose access to the world’s most integrated and accessible market. Our supply chains are built for North American logistics and retooling them for Europe would be costly and slow, with no guarantee the EU could absorb the same volume, especially in key sectors like auto, energy, and agriculture.
The EU’s complex patchwork of regulations, languages, and standards makes market entry slower and more expensive. New agreements with Europe require unanimous ratification by all member states in a process that can drag on for years. Meanwhile, a sudden move away from U.S. suppliers could provoke retaliation in the form of tariffs, sanctions, or reduced imports, putting Canadian jobs and investment at risk. Not all sectors would benefit equally, and provinces most reliant on U.S. trade would likely resist any shift that threatens local economies. In short, while diversification is important, the scale, speed, and cost of moving away from the U.S. make it a very risky bet.
The federal government’s sole focus after the 2025 election should’ve been to strike a deal with the United States. Instead of investing energy and resources in signing the Canada-EU Security and Defense Partnership in June, the Prime Minister should have put all other trade initiatives on hold to ensure Canada maintains access to the U.S. market. Would doing so require some major concessions? Of course. But negotiating a good deal with the United States in the immediate term may have been an easier sell to Canadians than a deal that could be perceived as giving up too much to get too little (think: supply management).
Phil Connors broke his time loop by changing himself. If we want to break ours, we need to fundamentally shift how we approach trade negotiations. That starts with making a deal with the United States our top priority. We need to normalize the relationship, reestablish trust, and secure long-term access to the market that matters most. We can also diversify our trade relationships, but that effort must come from a position of stability, not political expediency.
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