To the Point for the Week of June 21, 2026

To the Point for the Week of June 21, 2026

As we head into the final weekend before Canada Day, we wanted to wish everyone a very safe but happy day celebrating 159 years of this great country. 

Brad Bradford is closing the gap with Olivia Chow at just the right time. We perform a SWOT analysis on the federal government as the summer begins. 

TORONTO MAYORAL RACE

The World Cup Will Eventually End

There is an adage in political campaigns that the optimal time to peak in support is on Election Day. Peaking too early in the campaign leaves room for soft supporters to consider other options and second-guess how they plan to vote, especially during a longer-than-typical writ period. Peaking too late is indicative of a campaign’s failure to convert latent support into votes on election day, leading to thoughts of “if only the campaign were a week longer.” For Toronto mayoral challenger Brad Bradford, this week’s polling numbers suggest his campaign is trending toward peaking closer to election day.

Good news for the Bradford campaign, right? Yes, with a big caveat. The challenge for the Bradford campaign is now carefully managing that upward trajectory because, when the World Cup comes to an end, all the hype and festivities will be gone and the city will revert to its natural state, which an increasing number of voters see as a problem.

In early February, Bradford was behind the pack in a three-way race. Both Liaison and Mainstreet had Bradford in third place behind Olivia Chow and a potential return to politics for former mayor John Tory. Come springtime, with Tory out of the picture, Bradford’s numbers improved significantly. Liaison’s April poll had Bradford down by nine points to Chow, but their May poll had the twice-elected Ward 19 councillor back trailing the incumbent mayor by double digits.

This week’s Mainstreet poll has Bradford behind by six points (44%–38%), which is the closest Bradford has come to Chow in any poll during this election cycle, with 18% indicating they’d vote for another candidate. Those numbers look even more impressive when putting Bradford and Chow together in a strict head-to-head matchup. Bradford bests Chow 52% to 48%.

The average campaign watcher may look at these numbers and think the Bradford campaign has a tough hill to climb. The Mainstreet poll suggests the opposite is true. Bradford’s campaign doubled its support among decided/leaning voters from 17% to 38% in just four months. Chow, on the other hand, has slipped to the mid-40s. This is significant given how a previous Liaison poll indicated that 33% of voters either did not know Bradford or didn’t have a firm opinion about him.

Combine the room to improve on name recognition and “definitely would not vote for” metrics, and Bradford has enormous potential to increase his support. Close to 45% of voters say they will definitely not vote for Olivia Chow. Only 25% gave a hard pass on a vote for Bradford. Alternatively, 45% said they would definitely vote for, or consider voting for, Bradford.

The mood of voters, perceptions of Chow’s performance, and the top issues bode well for Bradford. Sixty percent of voters believe the city is on the wrong track. Fifty-six percent disapprove of Chow’s job performance, and top issues – traffic/congestion, cost of living, and crime/public safety – all align with Bradford’s campaign focus on the three C’s – congestion, cost of living, and crime.

Here’s the most important thing to consider when viewing these poll numbers: they come at the start of the summer and during an international event in the heart of Toronto that gives the impression the city is thriving. All the pomp and circumstance that comes with the World Cup will be done on July 2 when the last game is played in Toronto. The city will experience a typical short but sharp comedown. The temporary economic bump (which BMO suggested would primarily come from resident spending rather than tourism dollars) will fade, while both the financial and opportunity costs will linger.

And here’s where things get interesting for the race. Virtually no one will earnestly begin paying attention to municipal campaigns until after Labour Day, with too many summer distractions going on. However, the post-World Cup hangover lingering throughout the summer can be expected to be a multiplier on perceptions of how the city is run and the direction in which it is heading. The challenge for the campaign will be managing Bradford’s gradual rise into tangible momentum toward a political apex on election day.

FEDERAL

Official Start to Summer in Canada

Although this past Sunday marked the Northern Hemisphere’s start of summer, in Canada, summer unofficially starts on July 1st – Canada Day. The start of the summer recess – although Parliament has been adjourned for a full week now – presents an opportunity to assess the government’s current positioning by identifying its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats as the summer weeks roll on towards the return of Parliament on September 21st.

The Prime Minister and the federal Liberals continue to enjoy an exceptionally favourable polling environment. Nanos, Léger and Liaison all point to consistently strong numbers for the federal government and Prime Minister Carney, both on personal approval and party support. The Toronto Star’s Signal polling aggregator, unsurprisingly, shows the Carney Liberals would handily win another majority government. Voters still perceive the Liberals as the most stable choice among the other parties. That shouldn’t give the Liberals any reason to sit back and think they’ve perfected governing. On the contrary, their strong polling position is more attributable to weak opposition and a lack of real policy alternatives.

The Liberals’ greatest strength remains Mark Carney. He is broadly seen as the person in charge, the central – and often sole – decision-maker in this government. His elder-statesman persona has held up surprisingly well after more than a year in partisan politics, not just as prime minister. Expect Liberals to continue leaning hard into that asset: using the BBQ circuit to preserve his “serious steward of the economy” reputation while trying to humanize him as the kind of elite businessman you could still have a beer with. The risk, of course, is that the same centralizing, high-finance image that makes him look competent can also sharpen perceptions that he is too elite and too controlling if the mood in the country turns.

One of the government’s – and by extension the Prime Minister’s – main weaknesses, which also happens to present them with one of their most pressing opportunities, is the personnel that occupy the government front bench. Politico’s Mickey Djuric reported a little under a month ago that Ottawa insiders – including MPs, lobbyists and bureaucrats – aren’t impressed with many cabinet ministers’ performances, and a growing chorus of them is asking why many perceived-to-be-weak ministers are still in their respective roles. Some cabinet ministers carry a reputation for not having a firm grasp on their portfolios and for lacking the managerial skills to run a cabinet office. According to Djuric, some are beginning to openly muse about which cabinet ministers need to be removed.

A weak front bench has downstream effects. Underperforming or weak cabinet members weaken the government’s optics of competence. Djuric notes Immigration Minister Lena Diab and Housing Minister Gregor Robertson as names that keep popping up in conversation, the latter believed to be a very poor communicator, while many see Robertson’s weakness in making contradictory statements that slow delivery on his housing mandate. Many see Mélanie Joly as having botched relationships with the auto sector. Carney’s choice of who sits in cabinet will eventually reflect poorly on him and may lead many to question his management capabilities as a leader and his ability to identify personnel potential and talent. This would have a dual effect of the Liberals eventually over relying on Carney’s own personal brand to make up for his team’s shortfalls and further centralizing decision-making and authority in the hands of the Prime Minister’s Office.

Here’s the opportunity for the Prime Minister: use the summer to determine who is up for a promotion and shuffle cabinet. For those who served in cabinet under Prime Minister Trudeau, this might be an opportunity for Carney to move on from familiar faces and promote fresh talent into important roles, particularly on sensitive files like housing, defence and public safety.

The threats facing the government are twofold. First, it is not the perception of whether things are getting done, but the question of for whom they are benefiting. Canadians’ moods on affordability are not improving, and it is becoming an increasing pain point for the government, particularly the impact of persistent food inflation. Projects being fast-tracked without any downstream impact on job creation, condo “bail-outs,” and the Prime Minister being sidelined from 17 government deliberations due to conflicts of interest – including $3.1B to support housing loans, the potential export of electricity to the United States, and the development of the country’s new nuclear strategy, according to the Toronto Star – threaten to undermine the sense that the government is truly working to alleviate major pain points for regular Canadians rather than the interests of Bay or Wall Street.

The Liberal government’s positioning as the dog days of summer begin is strong but not indestructible. Carney still looks like the safest pair of hands in Ottawa – but on a much thinner foundation than what the polling numbers suggest. Growing frustrations around a weak-performing cabinet are a weakness that is also hiding an opportunity to refresh cabinet to keep key files like immigration and housing from going completely off the rails. The ethics screens are keeping Carney out of too many rooms and may give pause to Canadians who believe the current government has their interests at heart, and Canadians’ patience on affordability and housing is wearing down faster than the government anticipated. The question for the summer BBQ circuit isn’t whether the Liberals can keep their lead; it’s whether they can convince Canadians that he and his team are acting to alleviate their pain.

ABOUT TO THE POINT

To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."