To the Point for the Week of May 24, 2025
To the Point for the Week of May 24, 2025
It feels like it’s been a long time since both Ontario’s Legislative Assembly and Canada’s Parliament were both in session at the same time. Both the Premier and Prime Minister vowed to move full steam ahead on invigorating and protecting the economy during their respective election campaigns. The Premier’s priority of unlocking the Ring of Fire (finally) is facing a significant headwind.
While the Premier has had a head start over the Prime Minister in his legislative moves, the Speech from the Throne this week provided a glimpse into the federal government’s priorities and next steps. However, the opening of the new session of Parliament has us waiting for the other shoe to drop and deeply concerned on a key issue – one that will have a worsening impact on housing, the delivery of services, and wages.
ONTARIO
Unleashing the Economy, Unleashing a Fight
The PCs wasted no time acting on their campaign promise to unleash Ontario’s economy. Two bills lead the charge: Bill 5 – Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act, and Bill 2 – Protect Ontario Through Free Trade. Both aim to accelerate growth by streamlining project approvals and reducing regulatory barriers. Bill 2, focused on removing interprovincial trade restrictions to allow freer movement of goods, services, and workers, is headed to third reading and expected to pass with little resistance. Bill 5, however, is far more contentious.
It grants cabinet sweeping authority to create “special economic zones” anywhere in Ontario, exempting projects from provincial laws—including environmental, labour, and municipal regulations. It repeals the Endangered Species Act, replacing it with a narrower framework that reduces habitat protections and allows government to override independent scientific advice. Mining approvals are fast-tracked, certain environmental assessments waived, and cabinet is empowered to block foreign investment in the electricity sector. Ford says it’s vital for competitiveness and securing critical minerals. Critics warn it erodes environmental safeguards and centralizes too much authority.
Late last week, the government filed a motion to fast-track Bill 5 through committee—with or without approval. Clause-by-clause review resumes Tuesday at 1 p.m., and if it isn’t done by midnight, the bill will be automatically rubber-stamped and sent back to the House. On Wednesday, the Speaker must call a vote—no debate—followed by third reading under a strict one-hour cap.
The motion slams the door on any opposition filibuster. Amendments not moved by Tuesday will be deemed moved automatically, and everything still on the table goes straight to a vote. Even recorded votes will be capped at five-minute bells instead of the usual 30. The message is clear: this train is leaving the station.
The fiercest pushback is from First Nations leaders, who argue there was no meaningful consultation. In response, the government introduced amendments affirming the duty to consult when developing regulations under the Act, floated the idea of “Indigenous-led economic zones,” and pledged not to designate the Ring of Fire without substantial consultation. Still, many Indigenous voices say the process remains flawed and the bill undermines treaty rights and land governance. Calls for full repeal persist.
Some leaders are warning of a redux of Idle No More—the Indigenous-led movement that emerged in 2012 in response to the Harper government’s Bill C-45, which also overhauled environmental protections and was seen as infringing on Indigenous rights. What began as peaceful protest—sit-ins, round dances, and social media campaigns—later escalated to blockades of roads and rail lines. Enforcement of injunctions led to clashes with police, including property damage and arrests.
Until now, the Ford government has maintained relatively constructive relationships with First Nations communities—backing initiatives like the First Nations Data Table and pursuing economic partnerships. But Bill 5 puts the Premier in a difficult bind: unlock economic potential or honour constitutional duties to consult. The recent amendments may help, but they likely won’t be enough on their own.
Adding to the complexity is a shifting political climate. A decade of federal deference to protest movements—however well-intentioned—has emboldened groups willing to block projects with little concern for legal approvals or economic urgency. As some see it, a quasi-veto now exists, exercised not in courts but on highways, tracks, and construction sites.
It’s a classic damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t scenario. Push forward and risk disruptive protest. Pause for further consultation and risk watering down the legislation.
This may be the biggest political challenge of Ford’s second term—and possibly his legacy. The Ring of Fire represents a generational opportunity for both Ontario and First Nations communities. If legal and constitutional obligations are met, the Premier will need to show resolve—not just to pass Bill 5, but to use every legal and political tool available to ensure critical mineral projects can proceed.
That may include support—or intervention—from the Prime Minister, if Ottawa’s commitment to speeding up major project approvals is more than just talk.
FEDERAL
The King’s Speech
Prime Minister Carney continues to experience all the “firsts” that come with not just being Prime Minister but being elected to office for the first time. Draped in symbolism, pomp, and circumstance, the Prime Minister invited King Charles III to deliver the government’s Speech from the Throne. The King’s participation in the opening of the new Parliament was seen by many as a bright spot in what has otherwise been a politically tumultuous first half of 2025.
The government opened Parliament with a speech focused on symbolism and shovels. With U.S. political rhetoric heating up, sovereignty was front and centre. The speech affirmed Canada’s independence and promised to forge new ties not just with Washington, but with global partners as well.
On the home front, affordability and housing took top billing. The government pledged to cut taxes for the middle class, remove GST on homes under $1 million for first-time buyers, and launch a new agency, Build Canada Homes, to double the pace of housing construction and boost supply.
To spur economic growth, Ottawa vowed to eliminate internal trade barriers by Canada Day, working with provinces, territories, and Indigenous partners to build a more unified national economy. Fiscal discipline also made a return, with promises of a balanced operating budget and new investments aimed at job creation and income growth.
Public safety wasn’t overlooked. The government announced plans to tighten border security, reform bail conditions for repeat offenders, and increase law enforcement capacity. In a major shift for the resource sector, it also committed to reducing project approval timelines from five years to two, with the goal of accelerating development without sacrificing regulatory oversight.
The speech touched on immigration, though only briefly. The government proposed capping temporary foreign workers and international students, aiming to keep them below five percent of Canada’s population by 2027. On paper, it signaled a shift toward restraint. But the numbers tell a different story. Over 817,500 newcomers entered the country in the first four months of 2025 alone, including nearly half a million work permits and almost 200,000 student visas. How this cap will be enforced remains unclear.
While the speech delivered on most campaign promises—tax relief, housing expansion, resource development—it left immigration, arguably the most consequential file, largely untouched. That’s even though immigration intersects with nearly every major policy issue, from housing and health care to wages and infrastructure.
Immigration is no longer the third rail of Canadian politics. Public opinion has shifted sharply over the last two years, with growing concern about the scale and impact of current levels. Resource strain, declining affordability, and job market shifts are fueling the discomfort. This week’s headlines are likely to add more pressure.
A new Bank of Canada report lays bare the consequences. Temporary foreign workers and international students are replacing Canadian-born workers in low-skilled jobs, contributing to wage suppression of over 22 percent in some sectors. Economist David Rosenberg noted that the latest labour market data is flashing red. Most job gains are going to non-permanent residents, while full-time employment for core-aged Canadians is declining. Wages are stagnating, and the newest additions to the workforce are younger, lower-paid, and often less regulated.
These trends expose a deeper contradiction. Immigration policy continues to operate on the assumption that Canada needs more workers. Yet labour market data suggests a mismatch between supply and demand. What was once viewed as a tool for economic growth now appears to be contributing to structural imbalances. The system may still boost GDP, but it’s failing to support Canadian workers.
And there’s more to come. Over the next three years, Canada is projected to admit another 1.73 million temporary residents. An additional 1.14 million permanent residents will arrive, including a significant number of French-speaking immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa expected to settle in small communities outside Quebec. Refugee intake is also set to grow by 168,000, even as homelessness among Canadian citizens reaches record highs. Billions are being allocated to house newcomers, while tens of thousands of Canadians remain without access to stable shelter. The strain on housing, health care, education, and wages continue to intensify.
Despite the shifting mood of the public, federal immigration policy remains largely unchanged. The government talks about balance, yet intake levels continue to rise. The contradiction is now impossible to ignore: a political class unwilling to course-correct, even as pressure builds across nearly every system Canadians rely on.
Immigration may become the most consequential issue facing the Carney government. For all the talk of sovereignty and national strength, the real test will be whether Ottawa can regain control over immigration in a way that reflects both economic conditions and public expectations. If not, the pressure on institutions, affordability, and social cohesion risks growing into something harder to reverse. Inaction could come at a cost not just politically, but nationally.
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