To the Point for the Week of May 3, 2026
To the Point for the Week of May 3, 2026
We do a quick check-in on the Scarborough-Southwest provincial by-election and the Ontario Liberal Leadership race. The Prime Minister’s endeavour to align Canada with the EU may bring greater risk than benefit.
ONTARIO
The Final Hours
The political environment in Ontario has markedly shifted over the last several months. The electorate’s mood feels a little different. Ontarians’ feelings of uncertainty have grown. At the outset of the trade war with the United States, there was a strong sense of confidence and reassurance amongst the voting public that Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC government were poised to weather a very turbulent near future. It’s why there was no change in the status quo after the provincial election last year. Alas, the more things stay the same, the more they change, or something like that. The desire for change amongst voters has risen 12 points since October to 54%, according to Abacus Data.
Not only does the mood of the electorate feel more pronounced, but there is also a growing sense that the PC government is in a very vulnerable position. One could credibly argue that this is the only real moment of political vulnerability Doug Ford has faced during his premiership. The growing perception is that the Premier may no longer be in touch with the average Ontarian. The jet purchase likely worsened that awareness among voters.
All of this sets up a very interesting and timely backdrop to the Ontario Liberal Party Scarborough-Southwest nomination meeting this evening. We’ve been profiling the race over the last several months with keen interest as the front-runner going into tonight’s contest, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, is going all in on his party leadership ambitions by fighting for the nomination. Erskine-Smith is vying for the nomination to increase his chances in the leadership race should he win the byelection that must be called by early August, a very explicit objective that has drawn accusations of opportunism and blind ambition.
Erskine-Smith has been considered the front runner for the entire nomination, but his Achilles heel, both in this nomination and during the 2023 leadership race against Bonnie Crombie, has been his inability to galvanize broader Liberal Party support around his candidacy. That threatens to throw a wrench into his very specific and highly dependent pathway to becoming the riding nominee and ultimately party leader.
What should have been a coronation has instead become a stress test of Erskine-Smith’s ability to consolidate Liberal support.
The current federal MP has accused Ontario Liberal Party Queens Park staffers of working for his chief rival, Ahsanul Hafiz, by coordinating support amongst Scarborough’s Bengali community. Of course, paid staff are allowed to pursue, let’s call them extracurricular political activities, outside of regular work hours. But the perception of Ontario Liberal staffers supporting candidates in the nomination doesn’t sit well after over 1,800 potential voters, many believed to have taken a party membership to vote for NES, were removed from the voter rolls due to apparent irregularities. Not quite the broader rallying around his candidacy for which NES had hoped.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith’s struggles to unite the party around his nomination in Scarborough-Southwest worsened after Qadira Jackson, the Liberals’ candidate of record in the last election, and Hafiz formed a pact to prevent Erskine-Smith from running away with the nomination. Since the race is a ranked ballot voting system, both candidates have asked their supporters to list the other candidate as their second choice. This may prove to be the most consequential move of the campaign due to Hafiz’s strong ties to the Bengali community that Shahidul Mintu, editor of the Weekly Bangla Mail and CEO of Bengali television channel NRB TV, says will make up a significant voting bloc in the contest.
All the same, Erskine-Smith is pulling out all the stops to win. Late last night, the still-sitting MP posted a video featuring an endorsement from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Even if Nathaniel Erskine-Smith survives the nomination, his candidacy will have a looming cloud over it; an underlying sense that he lacks the ability to energize the party around his vision and plans to defeat Doug Ford in the next election. But it’s still hard to tell at this point. A sign that confidence in Erskine-Smith’s ability to win the nomination is thin, thus making the leadership race more competitive, came in the form of rookie Ontario Liberal MPP Lee Fairclough’s leadership bid announcement. Fairclough was one of three Liberals who stole seats from the Progressive Conservatives in Doug Ford’s stomping grounds of Etobicoke. Her leadership announcement may be a sign that the Party’s leadership race is more competitive without Nathaniel Erskine-Smith having a seat in the legislature.
While we can’t say for certain whether Nathaniel Erskine-Smith wins the nomination, what we can say is that for those who know him, an unsuccessful nomination bid won’t deter him from remaining in the leadership race. Which raises an important question: would it even matter whether the next Ontario Liberal Party leader can’t energize their party around their candidacy? Or will a “change election” framing be enough to unseat Doug Ford? We’ll revisit these questions again after tonight’s vote.
FEDERAL
Eurovision
The Prime Minister loves Europe; and that’s not to be taken as a sarcastic, partisan statement. He really does. It makes perfect sense when you consider he spent almost two decades of his finance career in London, either with Goldman Sachs, as Governor of the Bank of England, or as Chair of both the Bank for International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board based in Basel, Switzerland. It was his experience in these roles that shaped his views on European governance, economics, and Europe’s role in the “rules-based international order.”
The Prime Minister was in Yerevan, Armenia this week to attend the European Political Community (EPC) summit as a distinguished guest of the organization, making Carney the first non-European leader to participate in the event. Carney’s address to the 47-country organization was the latest in a long line of speeches in which the Prime Minister expressed his belief in Europe’s re-emergence as a zone of stability in a fractured and turbulent world. “It is my strong personal opinion,” the Prime Minister expressed, “that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.” The Prime Minister reiterated that, by interest, identity and values, Canada is more closely aligned with Europe than ever before.
It seems that every time the Prime Minister jets off to Europe, a fresh crop of stories emerges musing about Canada, in one scenario or another, joining the European Union or binding itself into deeper, more formal ties with the continent. For example, the National Post reported on a YouGov poll that found a majority of respondents in each of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain supported Canada joining the European Union. As well, the EU’s Ambassador to Canada, Geneviève Tuts, said the Eurozone is looking to “take to the next level” its relationship with Canada. The Hill Times interviewed Lithuanian Economy and Innovation Minister Edvinas Grikšas, whose country will assume the EU Presidency in 2027, who expressed support for deeper economic ties with Canada.
Each of these storylines assumes that “more Europe” is an uncomplicated win for Canada. But there is a world of difference between being Europe’s closest partner and becoming, in effect, an adjunct member of the European Union. The issue is not cultural affinity or diplomatic cooperation. The issue is whether Canada slowly begins orienting itself economically and politically away from North America and toward a slower-growing, more heavily regulated European model. For many, these are worrying signals from a prime minister who has long placed deep faith in multilateral institutions and extra layers of bureaucracy, supposedly to speed things up. Behind the rhetoric, critics see a broader political project taking shape, one that could ultimately position Carney as the leader who anchored Canada more closely to Europe.
Maintaining the cultural and historic bonds between Canada and Europe is an obviously noble pursuit. Diversifying and increasing fair trade with our European counterparts is a no-brainer. Security and defence coordination, particularly around the North and procurement, is strategically necessary. However, beyond these obvious areas of mutual interest, aligning Canada more closely with EU rulemaking would inevitably pull Canada further away from the North American system.
Since 2000, the European Union has increasingly lagged behind the United States in growth, productivity and innovation. In 2024, the United States economy grew by 2.8% while Europe grew by only 1.1%. IMF projections for 2026 show the United States once again outpacing both Canada and the EU. The broader issue is not simply slower growth. Europe’s economy has become older, more bureaucratic and less competitive than its American counterpart. Real disposable income for Americans has grown roughly twice as fast as it has for Europeans since 2000, while productivity gaps continue to widen. This is the economic model with which the government is seeking deeper alignment.
The EU’s social model is also coming under enormous fiscal strain. Average European government debt-to-GDP stood at 81.7% by the end of last year, with five member states above 100%, including Italy, France and Spain, which collectively account for roughly 40% of the EU’s GDP. This is the model the Prime Minister believes will help rebuild the international order.
Most significantly, full or partial alignment with the EU has the potential to destabilize the North American economy, risk Carney’s economic agenda and weaken Canada’s sovereignty. Businesses and economists already regularly cite Canada’s regulatory regimes as a hindrance to growth and internal trade. Adding another layer of European regulatory alignment would significantly compound the issue. At a time when Canada should be reducing barriers, streamlining approvals and improving competitiveness within North America, deeper integration with Europe risks moving in the opposite direction.
Should Canada seek integration with the EU economy beyond the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement, which itself has still not been fully ratified by all 27 member states, Canada would eventually have to align with the complete body of laws, rules, court decisions and obligations governing EU member states. It’s more than 170,000 pages. Whatever benefits deeper integration with Europe may offer, they would come at the cost of making Canada less economically aligned with the continent that overwhelmingly drives our prosperity.
This type of regulatory realignment, according to Mark Camilleri of the Canada-EU Trade and Investment Association, would “invariably destabilize the Canadian economy and North American market.” When 63 cents of every dollar Canada earns in trade flows south to the United States and only 8 cents goes to Europe, the economic case for significantly deeper integration with Europe becomes difficult to justify. Replacing one dependency with another that offers substantially less economic benefit is not diversification. It’s strategic confusion.
If Mark Carney isn’t in the House of Commons for Question Period, or at an onsite announcement, you can almost certainly bet he has flown to Europe to participate in yet another round of talks, meetings, official visits, or international gatherings. In fact, since becoming Prime Minister in March 2025, the Prime Minister has taken eight trips to Europe visiting fourteen different countries, including multiple visits to France and the United Kingdom. What’s clear is that more trips are on the horizon and the rhetoric is sure to evolve and escalate as CUSMA negotiations move forward (or backwards). At some point, Canadians are going to ask exactly where the Prime Minister believes this relationship with Europe should ultimately lead, and what Canada stands to gain from it.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.