To the Point for the Week of November 23, 2025
To the Point for the Week of November 23, 2025
A shake up of the Premier’s front bench might be in the stars. Bill Gates cleared the runway for the Alberta-Ottawa pipeline MOU.
ONTARIO
A Front Bench Shake Up on the Horizon
For many of our readers, this final week of November begins the countdown to Christmas, and with it, the mad dash to wrap up loose ends at the office before signing off for the break. So too is the Ford government as it pushed through its final legislative workload, moving forward two large bills, one wrapping up its journey through the legislature and another just getting started, as well as following through on its plans to shore up energy infrastructure and access to critical mineral deposits.
But the thing that caught the ONpoint team’s attention wasn’t what appeared in print. It was what didn’t.
Inside the legislature, the government passed Bill 60, the Fighting Delays, Building Faster Act. It came with loud criticism and an especially chaotic session where protestors accused the government of weakening renters’ rights. At one point, Premier Ford told a protester to “find gainful employment,” which didn’t exactly cool the room down.
The government also dropped a major justice omnibus, the Keeping Criminals Behind Bars Act. Bill 75 would introduce a series of reforms if it passes, including changes to dangerous driving offences and a new requirement for cash bail as a condition of release.
Meanwhile, the Premier and Energy Minister Stephen Lecce were busy on the infrastructure and energy side. On November 26, Minister Lecce announced the government had given the green light on Ontario Power Generation’s plan to refurbish four CANDU reactors at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. The very next day, the Premier revealed a 39.5-million-dollar partnership agreement with Marten Falls First Nation to build an all-season road that will connect the community to the Ring of Fire.
On the surface, everything pointed to a government that had moved past its recent distractions and was trying to quietly finish the session before the holidays. But as is often the case at Queen’s Park, the real story usually lives in the conversations no one is having publicly.
What we’re hearing suggests the normal end-of-session rhythms are catching up to the government. The post-election burst of energy appears to be running out of steam, and the signs indicate the Premier is taking a serious look at his cabinet lineup.
Cabinet shuffles happen for plenty of reasons — rewarding loyal caucus members, balancing internal factions, responding to a vacancy or a scandal, or dealing with performance issues on key files. In this case, we read it as part of the same broader adjustments the Premier appears to be preparing for.
From our perspective, the anticipated shuffle fits the pattern. The Premier will take advantage of downtime at Queen’s Park to move people around the table without the immediate scrutiny that comes with an active session. Cabinet moves almost always signal shifts in emphasis or direction, and this one is likely to be no different.
We will be watching how the government publicly frames a potential cabinet shuffle as it sets out its 2026 policy and legislative priorities. We anticipate the government is going to shift gears from tariff-impact mitigation to improving the province’s economic competitiveness. Energy-infrastructure development is going to feature prominently in 2026 as a key growth lever while simultaneously recalibrating its housing policies to course-correct toward the 1.5 million homes by 2031 target.
Of course, the key question is: who will be chosen to execute?
FEDERAL
Danielle Smith’s Pending Thank You to Bill Gates
You might be scratching your head wondering why on Earth Alberta Premier Danielle Smith would be penning a thank-you letter to Bill Gates. After all, Gates, like many other billionaires, has spent years warning about the threat of climate change and the need for governments to reach net-zero. His activism helped justify the idea that Alberta’s oil should remain in the ground. Recently, however, Gates stepped off the “climate change is going to kill us all” train and embraced something far more nuanced.
In an October essay, Gates said what many had argued for years but were dismissed as “climate denialists”—a label that never made much sense. He wrote that climate change will have serious consequences but will not lead to humanity’s demise. To call that a pivot understates the significance. His piece signaled the end of an era defined by rigid climate dogma that confined governments to narrow, unrealistic policy choices. In Canada, that dogma meant one thing: phase out fossil fuels immediately, eliminate their derivative products, and sprint toward a 100 percent renewable future.
A new sense of policy pragmatism has now taken hold, rooted in a simple truth: modern economies require reliable and affordable energy. Governments and voters have learned that trying to eliminate hydrocarbons overnight carries staggering financial and political costs. Many now recognize that fossil fuels will remain part of the energy mix for decades and that developing those resources responsibly is not taboo but a key element of national prosperity. This shift in thinking created the political space that allowed Alberta and Ottawa to finally strike an energy agreement.
The deal itself reflects the new consensus. On its surface, it is a routine MOU. In reality, it is the practical expression of the logic Gates articulated. He argued that the apocalypse narrative was wrong and that governments should manage energy rather than attempt to ban it. Carney and Smith built a governing framework around that idea. The agreement accepts that Alberta’s oil will continue to be produced for decades and treats it not as a temporary embarrassment but as a foundational piece of the Canadian economy. It sets clear conditions for that reality through a carbon price of 130 dollars a tonne, a requirement that the Pathways carbon capture project move forward, and meaningful Indigenous equity ownership. It also signals to investors that Canada is open to major energy projects beyond wind and solar.
This marks a significant political shift. For years, Ottawa treated Alberta as the problem. Now it treats Alberta as a partner. The reaction has been immediate. Steven Guilbeault walked away. British Columbia’s Premier is warning of legal action. Environmental groups feel betrayed. But the underlying dynamic is straightforward: the federal Liberals realized that the old “climate or economy” posture was politically unsustainable. They embraced a “climate and economy” approach that plays better in energy-producing regions and gives them room to occupy the pragmatic centre. It also creates distance between the Liberals and the NDP’s more rigid stance on energy and weakens Conservative attacks by allowing Ottawa to point to a plan backed by industry and capital, not just rhetoric.
Of course, pragmatism does not eliminate risk. The entire framework rests on two assumptions. The first is that the private sector will actually finance and build the pipeline. The second is that carbon capture technology will scale quickly enough to operate at commercial cost. If either piece fails, the deal collapses. Alberta would be left with a higher carbon price but no new export capacity, and Ottawa would have suspended its emissions cap for nothing. In that scenario, the agreement becomes an uneven exchange of concessions and unmet promises.
Both leaders are making a calculated wager. Carney is betting on markets. Smith is betting on technology. Together they are betting that pragmatism will outperform ideology. Whether that bet pays off remains an open question, but the political conversation has already changed. The debate is no longer about whether oil should be produced at all. The question now is how to produce it cleanly. That shift alone represents a major victory for Alberta and for the broader turn away from climate absolutism.
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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
