To the Point: For the Week of February 9th, 2025.
To the Point for the Week of February 9th,
The election swings back to President Trump as Premier Ford goes to Washington. We review the current federal political landscape over the last 30 days and assess each party’s position as the probability of a spring federal election increases.
ONTARIO ELECTION 2025
The Oscillating Election
In last week’s To the Point, we noted a very real shift in the tone of the Ontario election after President Trump granted a short reprieve on tariffs. It was looking like the contest was becoming another run-of-the-mill election. It was exactly what the Ontario Liberals and Ontario NDP needed, an opportunity to draw the attention of voters away from tariffs and towards the Premier’s record, especially on “hallway healthcare”. Leave it to President Trump to dash both parties’ hopes of breathing new life into their campaigns. The President announced on Monday the United States would proceed with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports effective on March 12, 2025.
Marit Stiles’ NDP is most affected by this development. She announced her Party’s tariff plan last week to very little attention, perhaps because it was largely aligned with the Liberals’ plan, save for other measures like reducing the small business tax by half. The NDP simply cannot compete on this issue, and they know it. Consequently, it is in the party’s best interest to put their best foot forward and bring Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals down a peg. The NDP once again criticized the Crombie Liberals on healthcare, accusing them of starting the hallway healthcare crisis that Ford pledged to fix in 2018. For Stiles and the NDP, this election has become about survival. Stop the bleeding and salvage the party’s position in the legislature (and Stiles’ federal ambitions).
Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario Liberals are not faring any better. When asked about her party’s response to the first onslaught of tariffs, she joked that her “fight tariff fund” could also be called the “F Trump fund”, and then followed with a vague answer about business having access to capital (this was preceded by Crombie challenging the Premier to a push up competition). Like the NDP, the Liberals are struggling to be taken seriously on tariffs. If their X feed is any indication, they’ve essentially given up on expending resources to stay relevant on the issue. As a result, the party is leaning heavily into healthcare as the secondary issue of this election to stave off the NDP. While we initially interpreted this as a sign the Liberals’ latching onto one of Ford’s vulnerabilities, it may be indicative of the Liberals’ strategic outlook in this election: if we cannot finish first, we cannot finish last. It may also explain why the Liberals have not made a peep on housing.
How many ways can it be written that the Premier’s control of the tariff narrative is ironclad. The Premier has held sway over the electorate on tariffs since Trump first threatened tariffs in November 2024. Premier Ford has firmly stated to a domestic audience, repeatedly, that Canada should hit back at the United States with all the levers at its disposal, and that he is prepared to use every lever possible to protect Ontario’s economy. Last week, Ford announced the party’s plan to support affected workers and businesses through tax deferrals, payroll relief, and investment incentives, each tied to a specific dollar amount. To put it simply, the PC’s were the first out of the gate to take advantage of the emerging perception that the Trump administration as a threat to Canada’s economy, as well as Canadians’ inclinations to respond in kind. Ford will not be knocked off this perch.
The optics could not get any better for the Premier this week as he jaunted to Washington, DC with fellow Premiers in tow to lobby Senators and congressional representatives on the importance of the US-Canada relationship. Ford came across as highly diplomatic, pulling back on the heated rhetoric he has regularly used with domestic audiences, and spoke to the interests of the administration. The Premier singled out China as a repeat trade rules offender and talked up the critical nature of our integrated economies. In what we believe was an overture to the Trump administration, the Premier announced this week a ban on Chinese components and state-owned enterprises from all future energy procurements and investments in Ontario’s critical energy infrastructure. Perhaps the biggest win for the Premier on his trip to DC, despite criticisms of violating the caretaker convention during an election, is his scoring of a last-minute meeting with White House officials that the Premier described as “very constructive” (even though they were relatively low ranking officials). Will this trip or meeting change Trump’s strategic outlook on trade and his administration’s adamant opinion that the country has been taken advantage of, even by its closest allies? No. Trump will still plow ahead with tariffs, no matter what, but the Premier did give it a good old college try. Politically speaking, though, it was a success. The Premier successfully delivered his message to the administration without risking a public relations nightmare, like when John McCain briefly suspended his 2008 presidential campaign to fly to Washington to personally try to cut a congressional deal on the bailout package during the financial crisis.
Given all that’s transpired this week, the Northern debate yesterday afternoon did not deliver any knockouts or home runs. We will see how each party leader adjusts their strategies and positions themselves for the main leaders debate this Sunday, February 16th. Will Crombie and Stiles ignore the Premier and go toe-to-toe? Will housing feature more prominently? Will voters care about anything other than tariffs? We will be watching every minute and have analysis next week.
FEDERAL
A Spring Election Looms
Hardened political operatives understand and appreciate that politics defies the laws of time and space. One month is 30 days, but in politics, it can feel like a lifetime. For this reason, we thought it would be valuable to our clients to provide a brief assessment of the federal political situation since the leadership race began and evaluate the parties’ advantages and vulnerabilities as the potential timeline to an election has shortened considerably.
In the last month, we witnessed the strategically cultivated rise of Mark Carney, out of the shadows of Justin Trudeau and backroom political circles, jolting the Liberals out of their political coma. Although bedridden, the orange man is keeping them on life support. Irrespective of one’s opinion of his candidacy, Carney has not made any significant gaffes or missteps that would draw negative attention from those outside the Liberal echo chambers and algorithms. He has effectively leveraged poking the orange bear, and although he’s not charismatic like Trudeau, Carney is able to deliver his key message that the country needs someone with his business experience and expertise to captain the HMCS Canada in turbulent waters.
The fix was in for Mark Carney since the get go, to the point where you almost forget a leadership race is even happening. Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould and the also rans are very slowly becoming an afterthought even with three weeks left in the race. The leadership race was designed for Carney, and for all intents and purposes, he’s the presumptive Prime Minister of Canada.
In the same period, the Conservative Party of Canada’s perceived advantage in controlling the ballot box questions, namely Justin Trudeau’s record and the carbon tax, eroded. The Tories mistakenly allowed the Carney and the Liberals, as well as Premier Doug Ford, to fill a leadership void, using the flag as a rallying cry. Questions around whether Pierre Poilievre is truly a Prime Minister in waiting emanated in political circles in Ottawa. Many Conservative MPs have expressed frustration with campaign leadership, but the CPC’s core team of operatives are, for the most part, not keen on fundamental changes to the overall strategy and tone of their campaign plans. The party has planned a large rally for this evening in Ottawa, built up as a “Canada First” rally where the Tories will unveil adapted messages and some tease new policy positions.
Jagmeet Singh has become disregarded and an unimportant factor in this leadership race. He is almost universally regarded as the key player in the managed the decline of the federal New Democrat Party by keeping the Liberals’ heads above water. Singh did achieve some NDP-esque wins, like striking a deal on dental care, but was it all worth it just to watch their support be syphoned off to the banker with three different passports? The party has no fundraising momentum and are not in a financial position to fight an election.
However, it emerged later in the week that the NDP’s national campaign director, Jennifer Howard, sent a letter to candidates and campaign managers telling them to prepare for an election as early as March 10th, the day following the end of the Liberal leadership race. The letter firmly states sources in Ottawa confirm the presumptive Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada intends to call an election immediately after winning and notes that no Liberal leadership candidate has reached out to opposition leaders to discuss emergency legislation when parliament resumes. We can confirm the same rumours. Our relationships in Ottawa have also signalled to the ONpoint team that they expect Carney to win the leadership race handedly and to immediately call an election. Carney himself would not rule out the possibility of calling an election.
Without access to the Liberals’ internal polling figures, we presume the sudden shift in the Liberals’ calculation on whether to call an election is based on two recent polls. First, a Leger poll this week suggesting with Carney at the Liberal helm, the CPC’s massive lead would be obliterated. Second, Nanos released a poll last week that when asked “Which of the following politicians would do the best job at negotiating with U.S. president Donald Trump?” Canadians responded in favor of Mark Carney over Pierre Poilievre 40% to 26%.
Should the Liberals really be as confident as they appear? Is the hype around Carney justified? Perhaps not after Abacus Data released a poll on Thursday that found although the Liberals are increasing their vote share by siphoning off the NDP, the Conservative Party’s lead stands at 19 points.
Taking these polls into consideration, one can reasonably conclude two mutually exclusive premises upon which the Liberals’ calculation to call an election could be based. One, the momentum behind Carney is real and the Liberals are gaining meaningful support. If they can successfully frame the election about Trump and his persistent threats, a short writ period would be enough to ride the momentum to victory, avoiding any detailed scrutiny of Carney and his policy prescriptions.
Two, the decision to prorogue parliament and call a leadership race was a miscalculation and Canadians’ desire for change is insurmountable. In the latter scenario, cutting a deal with the NDP to stay in power is much riskier than going to the polls. The anticipated worsening political, economic and social conditions in the country could annihilate the electoral prospects of the Liberals for the long-term. It is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t predicament.
As of right now, we believe there is a 70%-80% chance of going to an election immediately following Carney’s victory as Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Recognizing this, it is appropriate and timely to assess the parties’ advantages and vulnerabilities.
Carney has had overwhelmingly favourable media coverage and is treated as the de facto Prime Minister while the actual Prime Minister flies overseas for his farewell tour. The pundit class is certainly drawn to him, and the cultivated media environment has allowed the campaign to frame Carney as the candidate with distinct crisis management experience (BoC governor during the 2008 financial crisis), a public perception of economic competency, and an image of not being overwhelmingly partisan. He has been knee deep in the political apparatus since before becoming an official advisor to the Liberal Party and has boasted about receiving briefings from cabinet ministers, setting the stage for a seamless transition out of the Trudeau era. He’s not charismatic like Justin Trudeau, but he’s also not boring. He represents stability and safety.
But is that enough? Mark Carney has only been in the spotlight for a hot minute, and while Liberals enjoy a favourable mainstream media environment, we cannot forget that news media consumption, particularly among Canadians under the age of 50, is almost exclusively online (see X’s impact on the US Presidential election). There is a growing perception online amongst average Canadians is that Carney is out of touch from the commoner. He has three different passports (Canada, Ireland and the UK), thinks the average consumer doesn’t use steel, and made flippant comments about the country’s opioid crisis.
Moreover, the attempt to frame Carney as the outsider, unconnected to the last ten years of policy failures, does not seem to be resonating. Carney is preparing a continuation of the policies that Trudeau insisted would balance climate change and the economy. It is a policy paradigm that has resulted in economic decline. He has flip flopped or backtracked on the carbon tax multiple times, finally settling on something more complicated than Trudeau’s own carbon tax. Carney has given lip service to expanding Canada’s energy infrastructure to reach global markets, but one of his biggest cabinet supporters does not seem to be aligned as Stephen Guilbeault revoked the environmental assessment of an $11B refinery project in Kitimat BC. The project would have had the capacity to refine 150,000 barrels of oil a day for shipment to Asian markets. Much like the Prime Minister, Carney also believes in concentrating more power in the hands of the executive by invoking emergency powers to deal with the economic crisis. Many Canadians are also curious to know the nature of his relationship with China’s Xi Jinping and whether the hope-to-be future Prime Minister plans on shifting Canada closer into China’s sphere of influence. Lastly, Carney has deliberately shied away from addressing issues like immigration (which to no one’s surprise has not ameliorated since Trudeau pledged to fix immigration issues), crime, affordability and housing. These are major, gaping holes in what we are being led to believe is an impenetrable political shield around Carney.
The Conservatives’ main weaknesses rest in perceptions of Pierre Poilievre and the reluctance to lean further into what many say are “Trump-like” policies. To the Tory base, Pierre Poilievre is appealing because they enjoy his confrontation with unfriendly media and his tough talk on issues like immigration and crime. Those outside his base, primarily those without any party affiliation, tend to view the qualities Conservatives find appealing as a turn off. He is perceived as arrogant and confrontational, while Canadians look for sort of an elder statesman vibe in their leaders.
While you will hear pundits sound off on why sounding like Trump will scuttle any chances of Conservative electoral success, the opposite is in fact true. In no way, shape or form do we believe that Poilievre should fully embody Trumpism, but there is something to be said about purposefully, resolutely and unapologetically speaking about the glaring issues Canadians are concerned about and the solutions being offered. It can inject a sense of urgency and duty in voters to elect a government that will swiftly deliver on the promises made. For example, Poilievre’s recent announcement to build an Arctic military base from savings found in reducing foreign aid drew comparisons to Donald Trump’s gutting of waste, fraud and abuse at USAID. Believe it or not, voters respond when politicians speak with conviction—especially on issues they see as serious, fraudulent, or criminal.
Poilievre’s political advantage lies in his laser-focused messaging on economic issues, particularly affordability, housing, and government spending— as well as on crime and immigration, issues that resonate deeply with an increasingly frustrated electorate. His populist, direct communication style and masterful use of social media have expanded his reach beyond traditional Conservative circles, giving him a distinct edge in engaging with a broad base of supporters. Many Canadians find his no-nonsense alternative to the status quo as refreshing, willing to challenge institutions and policies that have contributed to national stagnation. Tonight’s Ottawa rally is not a rebranding effort, but as a reinvigoration of the Conservative Party's policy stances and narratives. This move aims to reinforce the party's core messages and energize the expanded supporter base they have cultivated since 2022.
Our assessment of the current political landscape is that while the threat of Trump’s tariffs is certainly in the forefront of many Canadians’ minds, there is a diminishing rate of return for the Liberals if they continue squarely focusing on the madman in the White House. Yes, tariffs will damage the Canadian economy, but there are other many other extremely pressing issues Canadians are deeply concerned about, and the Liberals insist on avoiding talking about them. We believe the Conservatives still hold the cards in shaping the ballot box question for this election. Taking all the above into consideration, we assess that a spring election would result in a Conservative majority government.
However, the potential for Jagmeet Singh to completely gut the Conservatives’ chances of forming a government at all is real. Jagmeet Singh has demonstrated his willingness to strike deals with the Liberals, even at a political cost to both himself and his party. Pretend to be shocked when Jagmeet Singh pulls something like what we witnessed during the Ontario election this week. Ontario NDP candidate for Eglinton-Lawrence, Natasha Doyle-Merrick, withdrew her candidacy on Thursday in the hopes of avoiding a vote split on the left that would allow PC Party candidate Michelle Cooper to squeak out a victory. It is entirely possible – nay, expected – that if it meant torpedoing the Conservatives, Singh would pull candidates from three-way-race ridings to avoid a vote split, even if it means weakening the NDP.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
