To the Point for the Week of October 26, 2025

The week of October 26, 2025, marks the one-year anniversary of the launch of our To the Point weekly insights and analyses. We continue to be blown away by the level of engagement our insights receive every week from clients, friends, and followers of ONpoint Strategy Group. 

Our goal has been to deliver insights and analysis to your inbox that you will not find anywhere else. The type of inside baseball perspectives that will help you make sense of the ebbs and flows of the political landscape that impact you and your business. 

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With that, let’s jump into this week’s edition. 

The government of Ontario puts it’s One Project, One Process to the test, and we preview the federal budget that’s set to drop next week.

ONTARIO

Ad Hoc

The fallout from the Ronald Reagan anti-tariff ad aired by the Government of Ontario continued this week, and reportedly included an expletive-laden rant by U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Hoekstra directed at Ontario’s Trade Representative in Washington. The ad quickly became a rallying cry for Canada’s anti-Trump contingent, who heralded it as a complete success. A paradox, to say the least.

While the dust-up around the ad carried on, another set of spots quietly began circulating on television and social media. These ones promoted Ontario’s Ring of Fire region, highlighting the province’s $22 billion economic potential and 70,000 projected jobs tied to critical mineral development. The message was clear: unlocking Ontario’s mineral wealth isn’t just about the North. It is about protecting the province’s broader economy from tariff turbulence.

Behind the headlines, the Ford government scored a major policy win of its own. The One Project, One Process (1P1P) framework officially launched on October 17th, marking a major step in Ontario’s plan to accelerate mine approvals and attract investment to its critical minerals sector. This week, Frontier Lithium’s PAK Project became the first approved under the new framework, a symbolic win for both the company and the province’s effort to streamline development in the North. And this project is no minor undertaking.

It is a world-class asset that places Ontario at the centre of North America’s clean energy transition. With one of the highest lithium grades on the continent and rare technical-grade quality comparable to Australia’s Greenbushes deposit, PAK stands as a globally significant resource. Its fully integrated “mine-to-battery” model, linking extraction in Red Lake to lithium hydroxide production in Thunder Bay, is the first of its kind in Canada and ensures that value creation, jobs, and innovation stay within the country. Strategically timed with the rapid buildout of the North American EV supply chain, the project will help secure domestic lithium supply for major automakers while reducing reliance on Chinese refining. Beyond its industrial footprint, PAK is driving investment in northern infrastructure—roads, power lines, and broadband—and creating new opportunities for Indigenous economic reconciliation through employment and equity partnerships.

Ontario’s One Project, One Process framework is reshaping how mines get built. By law, approvals for designated projects must now be completed within 24 months, a sharp reduction from the decade-long timelines that once made Ontario an outlier among advanced economies. The process moves fast: a meeting with the Ministry of Energy and Mines within 10 business days, coordinated permitting across ministries through a single plan, and Indigenous consultation launched within weeks. Regular monthly check-ins keep projects on track. The idea is not to cut corners but to cut lag time. If it works as promised, 1P1P could turn a once-glacial approval system into a competitive advantage for Ontario’s critical minerals sector.

The approval of Frontier Lithium’s PAK Project under the new framework is more than a regulatory milestone. It is a test of whether Ontario can still build big. For years, major resource projects have been defined by red tape, endless consultation, and court challenges that outlast governments. 1P1P is designed to break that pattern through coordination, compressed timelines, and genuine consultation that does not stretch into infinity.

The PAK Project is now the proving ground. If the framework delivers on its 24-month promise, if permits stay on schedule, Indigenous partnerships remain constructive, and infrastructure keeps pace, Ontario will have shown that the system can work. Success would re-establish Canada as a credible destination for critical mineral investment, open the door for the Ring of Fire, and restore confidence that this country can still turn resources into projects, not just plans.

If PAK falters—if delays, litigation, or opposition drag the process back into paralysis—the verdict will be clear. 1P1P will be seen as optics, not overhaul. The stakes are bigger than one mine. They are about proving that Canada still has the will, and the consensus, to build.

FEDERAL

Ottawa’s Balancing Act

Next week’s federal budget will be Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first true test as steward of Canada’s economy. He enters it promising “generational investments” in housing, defense, and infrastructure while assuring markets and voters that fiscal discipline remains intact. The contradiction at the heart of Budget 2025 is clear: how to go big without losing control.

The headline reform is a historic one. Ottawa will permanently separate capital from operating spending, marking the most significant change in federal budgeting in decades. The new Capital Budgeting Framework aims to distinguish long-term investments from day-to-day operations, making it easier to see where public dollars are building assets versus paying bills. Economists like former Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Kevin Page call it a long-overdue transparency fix. Others see creative accounting in the making. The definition of “capital investment” is so broad it could let Ottawa classify almost anything, from tax incentives to housing subsidies, as long-term spending. Critics at the Fraser Institute and the PBO warn that the move could make deficits look smaller without meaningfully changing Canada’s fiscal position.

Still, the Carney government’s spending ambitions are sweeping. Defense is getting its largest boost in generations, with Canada pledging to meet NATO’s 2% target immediately and reach 5% of GDP by 2035. That’s roughly $540 billion over a decade, much of it directed toward Arctic ports, northern infrastructure, and dual-use facilities that serve both civilian and military needs. Housing is the other pillar. The new Build Canada Homes agency, armed with $13 billion, will focus on non-market housing and modular construction, starting with a 540-unit project at Toronto’s Downsview site. The government also launched a $1.5 billion Rental Protection Fund and announced $283 million to expand Toronto’s Black Creek sewer system to unlock tens of thousands of new homes. Together, these measures signal a government betting heavily on construction, capacity, and long-term growth.

To balance the books, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is pursuing an aggressive spending review. Departments are expected to cut 7.5% from operating budgets next year, climbing to 15% by 2028. Transfers to provinces and social programs like childcare and pharmacare are exempt, leaving a narrow slice of discretionary spending to absorb deep reductions. The C.D. Howe Institute estimates that even if fully implemented, these cuts would save less than half of what’s required to stabilize the federal debt ratio. That ratio, once the Trudeau government’s key fiscal anchor, is now projected to rise from 42% to roughly 43% over the medium term—reversing years of progress.

Economists are split. Supporters like Kevin Page and RBC’s Cynthia Leach argue that Canada’s debt position remains among the strongest in the G7, giving Carney room to spend. Others, including the Fraser Institute and the Business Council of Canada, see rising risks. They warn that interest payments will soon consume 14 cents of every dollar in revenue, nearly double pre-pandemic levels. With growth projections slowing to just over 1% and trade tensions with Washington weighing on exports, critics worry that Ottawa’s fiscal optimism may rest on shaky ground.

Markets are watching closely. RBC predicts this year’s deficit path could run 60% higher than last fall’s projections, averaging 1.5% of GDP versus 0.9% previously. Desjardins economist Randall Bartlett cautions that ballooning defense commitments without offsetting cuts could test Canada’s AAA credit rating. Scotiabank, in a more diplomatic note, calls the plan “an effort to go big without spooking markets.”

For Carney, the stakes are both economic and political. The former central banker built his reputation on prudence and credibility; this budget will test both. Success means convincing Canadians that record investments can coexist with stability, that debt can be productive rather than reckless. Failure, whether through stalled growth, rising rates, or eroding confidence, would cement a narrative that Ottawa has lost control of the fiscal wheel.

Budget 2025 is not just about numbers. It will also test whether the Carney government has built enough good will with the opposition to ensure it passes. Count the Conservatives out and the Bloc Québécois will only support the budget if their “six essential demands” are met, which seems unlikely. Rumours abound that the NDP won’t vote against it, though they might abstain, lowering the threshold required for the budget to pass. The NDP remain broke and leaderless, so this seems a likely outcome. Either way, this is definitely Carney’s budget: part Bay Street, part Keynesian revival. The question is whether Canadians and financial markets will buy in.

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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."

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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.