To the Point for the Week of October 5, 2025
A MOMENT OF THANKS
As warm weather recedes and sweater weather settles in, we’re reminded that Thanksgiving is upon us. Canadian Thanksgiving rivals Christmas when it comes to dinner spreads, and it’s become a bit of a tradition within the ONpoint family to share photos of our own. Every year, our group chat lights up with pictures of turkeys, side dishes, and desserts that delight the eyes but terrify the waistline.
Canadian Thanksgiving traces its roots back to the 16th century, making it more than 40 years older than its American counterpart. English explorer Martin Frobisher held a feast in 1578 to give thanks for safe passage during his search for the Northwest Passage in what’s now Nunavut. While early celebrations varied, it wasn’t until 1879 that Thanksgiving became a national holiday, and in 1957, federal legislation officially set the date for the second Monday in October.
A lot has changed since 1578, but one thing remains the same: Thanksgiving is about more than the feast. It is a collective pause — a moment to reflect and appreciate our blessings, both tangible and intangible, for ourselves, our families, our friends, and this great country we call home.
At the heart of it all is a deep sense of gratitude and excitement for what’s ahead. Gratitude for our clients who trust us to help navigate complex policy and political landscapes. Gratitude for our partners and readers of To the Point who continue to follow our work and share in the conversations shaping the province and the country.
From all of us at ONpoint, thank you for your continued support and partnership. Wishing you and your families a wonderful and well-deserved Thanksgiving weekend.
And with that, we’ll keep it short and sweet so you can get back to giving thanks — but not before we dive into this week’s To the Point, where we explore why talents honed in the world of finance don’t always translate in politics.
FEDERAL
Expectation vs. Reality
Elon Musk, love him or hate him, learned a very hard lesson over the past couple of years. While the highest echelons of the business world are subsumed with ultra-driven, highly competitive, and cutthroat high performers, politics is a uniquely brutal blood sport. The skills, talents, and experiences a CEO—or perhaps even a central banker—develops during their career in the private sector don’t always transfer to the realm of politics.
Anyone in the corporate world with limited exposure to politics who seeks to implement meaningful change in government quickly has their reality shattered after being inside the belly of the beast—or deep state, depending on your preferred terminology. That was the lesson Elon Musk learned. His Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) mandate to uncover waste and corruption in government spending was a noble cause, even if the methods were controversial. But like many other attempts at grand historical change in government, it ran into the harsh reality of competing and converging power structures, interests, and entrenched bureaucratic sloth that ultimately stymied DOGE’s most ambitious goals.
The business world operates, or at least strives to operate, on a sum-sum logic. Both sides enter a deal expecting mutual benefit: one provides value, the other invests or collaborates in a way that helps both grow. It’s an ecosystem built on value creation, where innovation, efficiency, and partnership expand the pie rather than divide it.
Politics, by contrast, often plays out as a zero-sum game, even when it’s framed as cooperation. Political capital, public opinion, and legislative wins are finite resources. One actor’s gain usually comes at another’s expense. There’s often a veneer of sum-sum thinking through calls for bipartisanship or “win-win” policies, but beneath it lies a reality driven by competition for power, not shared growth.
Failing to recognize the difference can prove costly, and it’s especially true in foreign policy or trade negotiations—a reality turned up to eleven during the Trump era.
The federal Liberals sold the expectation that the Prime Minister’s international business acumen was suited for the existential crisis facing the country; that his experience in corporate boardrooms would translate into wins in the Oval Office. This is why the meeting this week between Prime Minister Carney and President Trump was so revealing. It demonstrated that Prime Minister Carney was playing by the rules of a sum-sum world, the kind shaped by his leadership at the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and as UN Special Envoy for Climate Action, while President Trump was keeping score in a zero-sum one.
Throughout the meeting, President Trump intentionally sucked up the oxygen in the room, while Prime Minister Carney attempted several times to find a pinhole-sized opening to get a word in. Trump, yet again, tried to sell the value proposition of becoming the 51st state, receiving very little pushback from the Prime Minister, and insisted that Canada would be very happy with whatever eventual trade deal would be struck—as if it were up to him to tell us that.
This is the type of game Trump plays: one defined by dominance, disruption, and the relentless pursuit of leverage. Every conversation is a negotiation, every interaction a test of strength. For Carney, whose instincts were shaped in a world of consensus-building and shared value, it was unfamiliar terrain. The tools that served him well in global finance—collaboration, credibility, and calm—carry little weight in Trump’s zero-sum universe, where unpredictability is the strategy and control is the prize.
The Prime Minister’s apparent misjudgment of the political landscape could have significant political and economic consequences. It is rumoured that to strike a deal on aluminum, steel, and energy, Canada will need to make major concessions on supply management and the auto sector—a political third rail in Quebec and Ontario respectively.
The sum-sum mentality is also playing out in other files, most notably in his push to get large nation-building projects to completion. He has said repeatedly that major infrastructure shouldn’t be a partisan issue and that prosperity can be shared if governments, industry, and communities work together. It’s the same collaborative logic that defined his time in global finance: build consensus, align incentives, and let the market deliver.
But politics is rarely that straightforward. While Carney envisions a grand coalition of public and private interests, the reality is a patchwork of competing jurisdictions, regulatory bottlenecks, and special interest opposition. The result is a government trying to apply corporate logic to a political system that rewards friction, not cooperation. Look no further than the firestorm playing out over pipeline politics between BC and Alberta and expect Premier Ford to go nuclear if Carney is willing to hold the auto industry up as the sacrificial lamb.
Carney’s test isn’t intellectual; it’s instinctual, the kind that separates technocrats from tacticians. The skills that made him a global financial heavyweight don’t automatically translate to the blood sport of politics. His sum-sum worldview may inspire confidence in markets, but it leaves him exposed in a zero-sum arena where power, not partnership, determines outcomes.
It’s a hard lesson he’s quickly learning, one Elon Musk already did. But unlike Musk, Carney doesn’t have the luxury of walking away. Canadians are growing impatient. The Tories are gaining ground. And he can’t afford to keep coming back from Washington empty-handed.
ABOUT TO THE POINT
To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
