To the Point for the Week of April 10, 2026
To the Point for the Week of April 10, 2026
A pre-budget poll could be cause for concern for the Ontario PCs as the Ontario Liberal Party nomination race for the provincial Scarborough Southwest by-election features tensions, and presumptions, among candidates. Another floor crosser will change more than seat counts.
ONTARIO
Running Unopposed, Acting Uncontested
With three federal by-elections heading into the final stretch this weekend, and Election Day on Monday, plus all the commotion around majority math and floor crossings, we wouldn’t fault you – or ourselves – for forgetting a provincial by-election is pending in Scarborough Southwest. The upcoming by-election will have an impact on the Ontario Liberal Party leadership race.
Four individuals are vying for the nomination in the coveted Toronto riding. To the Point readers are familiar with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith since we’ve been profiling him at various points over the past year. The current federal MP for Beaches–East York is running to position himself as the front-runner in the Ontario Liberal leadership race and the likely favourite should he win the nomination and the riding.
Qadira Jackson is the candidate of record in the riding from the 2025 provincial election and reportedly was the first to declare her intention to seek the nomination. She has local roots, with a legal practice in the riding, and is framing her campaign as one grounded in deep personal and professional ties to the community, insisting it’s not an attempt to position herself as a leadership candidate. Jackson was appointed by former leader Bonnie Crombie exactly two weeks before the writ dropped in 2025. This will be her first contested nomination campaign.
Two other candidates, both with ties to the local Bengali community and the federal Liberal Party, are also in the mix. Ahsanul Hafiz is a Domino’s Pizza franchise owner and former Liberal Party of Canada senior vice-president (Ontario). Hafiz is a long-time resident of London but now claims to be a homeowner (not necessarily a resident) in Scarborough Southwest. Mahmud Nasrin rounds out the slate. An immigration consultant by trade, Nasrin, like Jackson, can lay claim to community roots as a long-time resident and active member of the federal Electoral District Association (EDA).
Even though an official nomination contest has yet to be launched, things are already competitive and tense. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is without a doubt the most well-organized campaign so far. His long-time chief of staff, Andrew Goodridge, is his key strategist, having managed multiple NES campaigns federally, and is expected to play a central role in his nomination, by-election (if he secures the nomination), and leadership campaigns (if he wins the by-election). NES is hosting events, knocking on doors, and framing the race as a choice between a candidate who can represent Scarborough Southwest and one who can defeat Doug Ford as leader.
While NES is generally framed as the frontrunner in the Ontario Liberal leadership race, primarily because no other name has officially proclaimed their intent to run, its positioning has insiders wondering if he is being too presumptuous. The Toronto Star’s Queen’s Park Bureau reporter Rob Ferguson and Chief Robert Benzie reported last week that Nathaniel Erskine-Smith had been reaching out to nomination opponents and – depending on whose words convince you most – asking them to drop out of the race.
Qadira Jackson told Ferguson that Erskine-Smith had called her to ask her to bow out of the race and join his team. She refused. “Not going to happen,” she said. Ahsanul Hafiz also claims that NES, while not explicitly telling him to drop out, was, in his words, “indicating that, you know, eventually he will become leader of the party, and then potentially becoming premier.” If you read between the lines, the implication – if we take Hafiz’s words at face value – is that NES essentially made a friendly suggestion not to resist the presumptive future leader of the party. Any attempt at such would be futile. Like Jackson, Hafiz made it clear that he had no intent on leaving the race.
Of course, NES disputes the intent of his discussions with either candidate, adding that he merely invited them to join his team. That’s very generous of him. However, the move is being perceived as entitled. Some insiders suggest that NES believes he is owed the nomination, the by-election win, and the leadership, and that his inability to prevent attacks on his candidacy from a consensus of Ontario Liberals will undermine his leadership potential.
Regardless of whether his intent was to get Jackson and Hafiz to bow out of the race or not, the optics don’t come off well for a candidate positioning himself as the front-runner in a field of one. Should the outcome of the nomination be a slim victory for Erskine-Smith, with Hafiz and Jackson finishing not too far off, NES’ leadership campaign (assuming he would also win the by-election and depending on the final field) may struggle to consolidate support among the membership and key political organizers, operatives, caucus members, and candidates, which could doom any head-to-head matchup against Doug Ford.
And for a candidate already acting like the presumptive leader, that’s a risky place to start.
FEDERAL
Gladu Bids Adieu
To bid adieu is to say goodbye, usually in a slightly formal, deliberate, or even dramatic way. The phrase carries with it a sense of finality. When someone bids adieu, often with an explicit implication that they won’t return, they are parting ways. That’s exactly what Marylin Gladu, MP for Sarnia–Lambton–Bkejwanong, did this week by crossing the floor to sit as a Liberal.
We would be lying if we said we were shocked. Not that a floor crossing doesn’t come with a flair for the dramatic, but that the federal political scene has witnessed a floor crossing every quarter since Q4 2025. It’s almost become so commonplace as to be expected, with another nine caucus members rumoured to be considering flocking to the Liberals.
It seems that Gladu’s defection is more of a flashpoint than the previous four crossings, with major implications for the Liberals and Conservatives.
Gladu’s crossing essentially guarantees Canadians wake up this coming Tuesday morning to a majority Liberal government. The Liberals only need to win their Toronto strongholds in Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale to pass the 172-seat threshold for a majority. Even still, there is a reason the Liberals were explicit in their desire to win the Quebec Terrebonne by-election that they narrowly won by a single vote in 2025, an outcome later overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada.
If the Liberals can secure a convincing win in Terrebonne, it will lend further legitimacy to Carney’s newly formed majority. A by-election sweep would cement the perception, backed up by polling, that the Liberal government’s agenda continues to receive real, broad-based support among Canadians. The floor crossings, therefore, would appear to the average person less as sleazy backroom dealings and more as elected officials listening to the will of their constituents.
“Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems,” as the kids used to say, which in this political context means that a slim majority for Carney (assuming there are no more floor crossers waiting in the wings) may present bigger headaches. The welcoming of what many perceive to be a capital “C” conservative in Marylin Gladu is sparking blunt reaction from the Liberals’ progressive wing who are wondering whether the party needed a caucus member who are wondering whether it is was the right move to bring on a caucus member with a history of controversial statements and positions.
Predictably, ultra progressive Steven Guilbeault downplayed the issue. Guilbeault insisted that the party’s values aren’t changing and that it remains a progressive party. But behind the scenes, many are unhappy, and this has the potential to be a festering issue for Carney. Progressives may feel emboldened to form power blocs behind the scenes to push for very progressive policies or legislation under threat of withholding votes, a dynamic not as prevalent in a minority setting. It will be a tricky balancing act for Carney moving forward.
One can’t help feeling a little bad for Pierre Poilievre. We noted in an edition of To the Point some weeks ago that his appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience was a meaningful and potentially consequential rebrand that reframed him from a combative partisan into a credible, measured national leader. No one expected it to immediately close the gap on the Liberals’ double-digit polling advantage, but it was successful in drawing positive attention to his leadership in opposition.
The timing of Gladu’s defection appears aimed at kneecapping Poilievre’s rebrand and may be more indicative of a perception on the part of the Liberals that Pierre Poilievre may, in some scenario, pose a threat. Otherwise, why astroturf an effort to get him deposed as Leader of the Official Opposition? Many are viewing this latest defection as yet another blow to his leadership, but an alternative point of view is that fewer fence-sitting, status-seeking, waffling conservatives within caucus makes for a more united, formidable opposition. A leader is only as strong as the degree of confidence his or her followers have in their skills, expertise, and experience. Who wants anyone on their team who isn’t dyed-in-the-wool committed to the Party’s vision, values, and principles?
Pierre Poilievre’s next steps should be to resist calls to pull the party to the centre. That’s been tried. It failed. Politics is about contrast, and the current political landscape doesn’t need a wishy-washy version of the Liberal Party of Canada. Appropriately, Poilievre is pressing forward and focused on being an alternative to the current government. His and his party’s focus on protecting property rights in British Columbia yesterday is a great start.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.