To the Point for the Week of April 12, 2026

To the Point for the Week of April 12, 2026

Another poll shows a narrowing gap between the Ontario PCs and leaderless Liberals as a new contender is expected to enter the ring. We break down the good, the bad and the ugly of Mark Carney’s majority.

ONTARIO

Bains, Navdeep Bains

In Ian Fleming’s 1959 James Bond novel Goldfinger, 007 is tasked with investigating and following the main villain, Auric Goldfinger. Bond keeps turning up in the same places as Goldfinger. He tracks him to Miami, Sandwich, and Geneva. After repeated “chance” meetings, Goldfinger realizes his bump-ins with Bond indicate purpose and intent. Goldfinger confronts the British spy, catching on to his mission, saying, “Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: ‘Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third is enemy action.’” Goldfinger realizes that his run-ins with Bond are not random.

The shifting Ontario political landscape is akin to Goldfinger’s realization that something isn’t random. In early February, an Abacus Data poll first picked up signals of a shifting Ontario political environment, Ford’s PCs down four points and the leaderless Liberals up eight. It was too early to tell at the time if these results were meaningful or a fluke. Later that month, a Liaison survey also picked up on a narrowing gap, with the PC lead cut to four points as Liberal support began to coalesce in the 416 and 905 regions. Not a coincidence, perhaps. Then in early April, a fresh Abacus poll (PCs 39%, Liberals 31%, NDP 21%) found the PCs back under 40 and both the Ontario Liberals and Marit Stiles’ NDP gaining momentum. This week, Pallas Data, polling for The Trillium, published its most recent survey, showing the narrowest gap between the two parties in the last two years, 40% to 31%. Safe to say these results are neither random nor coincidental. It is now a pattern that the PCs should carefully consider.

A shifting landscape in Ontario comes at an interesting time for the Ontario Liberal Party. We have noted in recent editions of To the Point that the by-election in Scarborough Southwest is a key race to watch, as current federal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, a contender for the Ontario Liberal leadership, is in a contested race for the nomination. Erskine-Smith is betting that securing the nomination and winning the by-election will pad his resume for the leadership race. The riding’s Liberal Party Electoral District Association this week set the date of the nomination meeting for May 9. Recent Toronto Star reporting suggests that Erskine-Smith may not be the shoo-in he believes he is. 

Not only might the nomination be tough for NES, but he may also face a formidable challenger in the leadership race. Various outlets reported this week that former Trudeau cabinet minister Navdeep Bains is being courted by individuals in both the federal and Ontario Liberal parties who have been strongly encouraging him to run. The Toronto Star’s Robert Benzie also reported this week that federal and provincial elected Liberals received calls from Bains seeking their input and, in many cases, confirming their support. Other insiders have confirmed that Bains is reaching out to gauge support for a potential run and that the response has been very positive. The affable Bains was also reportedly working the room at the federal Liberal convention last weekend in Montreal.

Bains had considered the job in 2023 but declined to run due to family commitments. With his kids off to post-secondary education, it is said that Bains feels the timing is now appropriate for him to get back into public life. That makes him a direct challenge to NES, but could also make others considering a run, including sitting Liberal MPPs Rob Cerjanec (Ajax) and Lee Fairclough (Etobicoke–Lakeshore), think hard before entering the fray.

Bains’ roots in Liberal political circles run deep. He is widely considered an integral architect of the federal Liberals rebuild after the party’s third-place loss in 2011, namely as a chief organizer and fundraiser in the GTA. He has significant public sector experience in both opposition and as a cabinet minister, as well as cutting his teeth in the private sector on Bay Street.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith’s weakness is Navdeep Bains’ strength. Signals suggest that Bains can generate consensus support among key Liberal politicos as well as grassroots members. This is critical to leading with confidence that generates momentum and drives supporters out to the polls, an area Crombie failed. Moreover, Bains doesn’t appear to have a public reputation as entitled or owed the leadership. Bains stepped away from public life when the timing felt right for him. He has enjoyed a private life for several years while still being politically active and has built a rewarding corporate resume. Liberals in the know say Bains has been watching what’s happening in Ontario and feels a mix of motivation and political alignment with the desire-for-change mood in polling creating a favourable environment for his chances of winning.

Another way of viewing Bains’ potential entrance into the race is as a coordinated effort among senior federal Liberal organizers to prevent NES from winning. Insiders say NES does not hold sway among high-level Liberals and is viewed as an opportunist cut from the progressive cloth within the Party. Bains, more of a “business-Liberal,” would be more aligned with a Carney-style leadership and policy outlook. Not a yes man, but a leader whose corporate experience naturally dovetails into that economic approach.

Bains is expected to jump into the race, and we expect he will. One doesn’t get multiple media write-ups about a potential leadership run only to decide against it. His entry would put a spotlight on the head-to-head match-up with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, potentially generating momentum and excitement around the Ontario Liberal Party that hasn’t been felt in a long time, assuming all the stars align for NES. One could say Bains entering the race would shake, not stir, the Party.

FEDERAL
The Good, the Bad & the Ugly

Well, there you have it. Three by-election victories on Monday night, combined with the defection of five MPs to the Liberals, have given Mark Carney his coveted majority government, sixteen months after he proclaimed his intent to seek the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. It really is a historic achievement for someone who has never previously held public office. Under the Canada Elections Act, the next federal election date is set for the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the last election. That would make the next election October 15, 2029. With that in mind, we break down the good, the bad, and the ugly of Mark Carney’s majority.

The Good

After seven years of minority government, Carney’s new majority signals the end of constant threats of government collapse and permanent election campaign readiness. Four years without the threat of an election means the government has the capacity to pass legislation, table budgets and implement long-term policy initiatives unencumbered by the threat of a lost confidence vote. Political stabilization translates into concrete signals for the economy, providing policy certainty for investors, businesses and trading partners. It reduces the risk of sudden policy reversals, shortens decision timelines for major projects, and gives firms the confidence to hire, invest and expand in Canada over a multi-year horizon. The Prime Minister is virtually unencumbered from aggressively moving forward with his promised economic policies, namely trade diversification and U.S. de-risking, turning Canada into an energy superpower, and his pledge to collaborate with Premiers to alleviate Canada’s housing crisis. With no threat of an election, voters will now get to see the Carney economic agenda in full effect.

Simultaneously, four years gives the Conservatives enormous runway to rebuild ahead of October 2029. It provides breathing room for Pierre Poilievre to continue reshaping and reforming his image into a Prime Minister in waiting, which he has managed to improve upon since his appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience. It also provides an opportunity to go harder as an opposition under a weak majority than a strong minority to strike a clear contrast with the government’s policy direction. Lastly, it gives Poilievre time to reevaluate and, if necessary, reform the Conservative Party’s candidate selection practices to ensure firm buy-in of the leader’s vision for the Party and the country from those who wish to be part of a governing Conservative Party Caucus.

The Bad

While every success in this new majority will squarely be attributed to Prime Minister Mark Carney, so too will all the failures. The Prime Minister no longer has the excuse of opposition parties hindering policy, legislative and spending priorities under a minority government. He will now have to own it all, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

And Canadians will be watching closely. If groceries are still unaffordable by 2028, if the 500,000 housing units a year target remains a promise rather than a reality, and if trade diversification away from the United States stalls, there will be no Parliament to blame and no opposition to point at. The alibi is gone. What remains is the record — and in 2029, voters will render their verdict on it.

The Ugly

Sure, there’s a strong case that a majority government brings stability, regardless of how it came to fruition. However, the way Carney and the Liberals secured their majority brings into question not the legitimacy of the government, but the legitimacy of the majority itself.

The 2025 general election produced a strong Liberal minority, but the Conservatives added 25 seats, received their highest vote share since 1988, and in raw vote totals won the popular vote. That doesn’t equate to winning, but it does complicate Carney’s proclamation at the recent Liberal convention that his majority reflects national trust. The floor-crossers were elected under different party banners and contrasting policy platforms. Welcoming MPs into your caucus with resources, status, and riding investments does not constitute a mandate for sweeping democratic change. It constitutes a parliamentary manoeuvre. The narrow mandate voters granted covers trade diversification, nation-building infrastructure, and housing affordability. Anything beyond that is a reach.

Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group

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About ONpoint Strategy Group:

ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.