To the Point for the Week of April 19, 2026
To the Point for the Week of April 19, 2026
Some fear Doug Ford’s time as Premier may be entering its final decent. We examine the early style and tone of Mark Carney’s majority against the early perceptions of the Canadian public.
ONTARIO
Death by a Thousand Cuts
Polymarket is an online prediction market where people trade shares on the outcomes of real-world events, effectively betting on what they think will happen and using the prices as odds. On March 31st, the online prediction market platform, Polymarket, published a new prediction market: Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31st. It’s an intriguing prediction market, considering the Premier himself insisted at the Ontario PC Party convention in late January that he would be piloting the party into the 2029 election. The market currently sits at a 14% chance that Ford resigns as Premier and PC Party leader by the end of the year.
On Polymarket, users can suggest questions, but only markets that pass the platform’s internal review for clear resolution rules, legality, and likely demand are created and listed. This process screens out illegal or toxic bets, ensures every question can be resolved cleanly, and reassures regulators that it isn’t running an unpoliced, free-for-all casino. Nevertheless, Polymarket has come under scrutiny recently for how prediction markets can be gamed by “insider traders” who know outcomes well in advance. For example, markets have predicted the timing of Israeli and US airstrikes against Iran, the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, and even a one-day-old account that accurately predicted 17 of 20 Super Bowl halftime show elements, netting tens of thousands of dollars.
That raises a more uncomfortable question about the Doug Ford market. Does someone know something the public doesn’t, or is the market picking up on something politics hasn’t fully priced in yet? What inside baseball prompted a market that, on the surface, appears out of alignment with the current political landscape in Ontario?
Or is it? At the time the market was created, the idea was easy to dismiss. The Premier had just reassured party members he’d give it another go in 2029. Sure, some public polling has shown a closing gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals, with voters beginning to consider whether it’s time for a change at Queen’s Park, but overall, the Premier and his party held the confidence of voters during this economically volatile era. However, the recent fiasco over the government’s purchase of a 10-year-old Bombardier private airplane for government business may be the straw breaking the proverbial camel’s back, the kind of moment that turns a long list of issues into a real political vulnerability.
It’s not that the government bought a private plane. After all, as columnist Matt Gurney explained in his Toronto Star piece this week, Ontario is a massive landmass with infrastructure gaps, especially in the North, that necessitate travel by airplane. Ontario’s economy is bigger than many European countries, and officials need an efficient way to travel across the province, and sometimes to the United States. Besides, as the Premier pointed out, other provinces have purchased aircraft for government business too. Why not Ontario?
It’s the way in which the airplane issue has been handled, particularly the political communications around it, and the fallout that suggests Premier Ford’s premiership is suffering a slow death by a thousand cuts. On its own, it’s not fatal. But stacked on everything else, it starts to look like risk.
Make no mistake, this is largely self-inflicted. The Premier has expended a significant amount of political capital on issues that could have been better spent elsewhere. Booze in corner stores, banning US booze from LCBO shelves, speed cameras, Ontario Place, the Reagan ad campaign, and FOI changes are all examples of misspent capital, leaving the most pressing files, like healthcare, housing, and affordability, perceived to have received less time, attention, and ambition than Ontarians reasonably expect from a government with such a large majority.
Pollster David Coletto commented this week that the “gravy plane” clashes directly with Ford’s long-cultivated retail political brand of the politician for the everyday Jane and John Doe Ontarian. It reveals a juxtaposition many voters won’t overlook; it feels like a breach of trust. Global News’ Colin D’Mello and Isaac Callan reported this week that even some Progressive Conservative insiders, although unclear if these are sitting MPs, staff, or political confidants of the PC Party, think the jet ordeal was a communications disaster, warning that his brand has been eroded and that it may be the beginning of the end of the Doug Ford era.
The timing of the government’s most recent unforced error is perfect for the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership race. A weakened Ford brand sets up a contrast that leadership contenders can exploit if disciplined enough to do so. The leadership hopefuls can frame themselves and the Party as the antidote to mounting, misordered priorities, one that feels serious, disciplined, and empathetic to cost-of-living issues rather than slogans and gimmicks.
We will see what snowball effect these compounding issues will have for the Premier and the PC Party in the coming months, and whether the Premier will be able to rebound or if shifting public sentiment will intensify in subsequent polling. One thing is certain: the next several months will be critical for Ford and the PCs to regain the trust and confidence of the public as attention shifts toward the race to replace Bonnie Crombie. Either way, the next several months will tell us whether the market was ahead of the story or just reacting to it. You can bet on that.
FEDERAL
Setting the Tone
We are barely a week into the Mark Carney majority era, and the government has wasted no time in setting the tone and style that may very well dictate the Canadian federal political landscape for the next four years. The Prime Minister has projected seriousness and urgency, which is what he promised to Canadians. However, some feel he has also signaled glimpses of overconfidence, bordering on arrogance, as well as high-handedness and unresponsiveness that risk jeopardizing the good graces in which Canadians have placed the Liberals.
The tone set so far by the Prime Minister has been unsurprisingly steady and managerial. Carney’s first ten days as a majority Prime Minister are a clear juxtaposition to the Trudeau-era emotional, overtly antagonistic politics and culture-war theatrics. Carney continues to maintain that he is the experienced, measured adult in the room whose core focus is on repositioning the Canadian economy towards growth. The PMO also appears more formal and corporate, less campaign war room and more boardroom, with an emphasis on institutional discipline rather than personal brand-building. This has given the Prime Minister leeway to move forward on his economic agenda, particularly in resource development.
For example, the Prime Minister moved quickly in response to the dramatic increase in fuel prices sparked by the Israeli/US conflict with Iran, suspending some fuel taxes to ease the pain at the pump for Canadians. The Prime Minister also made moves this week on resources, including considering a new southern pipeline route from Alberta to BC that the government believes will be more palatable for Indigenous groups and resource-resistant BC Premier David Eby, as well as approving Enbridge’s $4B Sunrise natural gas pipeline expansion project.
This is the tone and expectation setting that has made Carney’s style appealing to Canadians. However, the biggest risk to this government is falling into all too familiar patterns of overconfidence and stretching beyond what the government has been given. The government secured a majority through incentivized floor crossing and by-election victories. That is not the same as a broad majority mandate. They hold a slim majority with less room than the numbers suggest. This is where the risk lies: voters being unable to reconcile the public persona of a seasoned statesman with a governing style that takes liberties to limit accountability and revive initiatives from the previous administration, pushing further and faster on structural decisions than voters are prepared to accept.
For instance, the government announced its intent to take control of all parliamentary committees, which would effectively give approximately 8% more representation on committees than the Liberals’ 50.7% majority of seats in the House. And what would a majority on every committee represent? The ability to shut down studies, witnesses and debate, like they did at the Science and Research Committee by shutting down witness Margaret McCuaig-Johnson, a human rights activist who appeared to speak on the issue of China’s use of slave labour to produce EVs. The Prime Minister was also called out by a reporter this week for his frequent absences from Question Period. Carney responded by insisting he remains accessible to media. Okay, but what about Parliament?
Abacus Data polling released this week confirms that the Prime Minister has been given a majority with constraints. The benefit of the doubt from the public is there, but it’s marginal. Abacus Data’s new survey is a reminder that Ottawa’s mood and the country’s mood are not the same thing. Yes, 48% of Canadians say they are satisfied with the Liberals securing a House majority, compared with 29% who are dissatisfied and 23% who are neutral. That tilt into positive territory matters, but it is a narrow balance, not a wave of enthusiasm. It reflects a public that is prepared to tolerate a procedural majority built through floor crossings and byelections so long as it delivers steadier government, not one that has suddenly developed an appetite for a more aggressive Liberal project.
Other Abacus work points in the same direction. When Canadians were asked what a Carney government should do, overwhelming majorities pointed to managing the economy through a difficult period, protecting Canadian workers from U.S. tariffs and making housing more affordable. By contrast, fewer than half believed he would take Canada in a different direction than Justin Trudeau, even though almost nine in ten said they wanted that change, underscoring how conditional their support is and how tightly it is linked to competence on core economic files rather than a broader ideological agenda.
Taken together, the data suggest the Liberals do not have the political leeway to govern as if this were a newly minted, big mandate majority. They have permission to be decisive on trade, growth and housing, but not much appetite for moves that look like partisan advantage seeking or a resurrection of unfinished Trudeau-era business. A government that came to majority status on the strength of 173 seats in a 338-seat House and a slim satisfaction margin in the polls cannot assume that Canadians will follow it into more nakedly partisan fights without cost. If Carney drifts too far from the reassurance-through-competence offer that brought him to this point, the same data that now give him the benefit of the doubt also suggest how quickly that benefit could evaporate.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.