To the Point for the Week of April 27, 2025
To the Point for the Week of April 27, 2025
Now that Federal Election 2025 is over, Canada enters a new era, one that early on is still gripped with insecurity and uncertainty. With this new and emerging political landscape, we assess Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first press conference and take stock of two of the immediate headwinds facing his government.
SETTING THE TONE
Yesterday, the Prime Minister gave his first media availability following his party’s election victory. Conservative voters may have tuned in expecting the same hyper-partisan arrogance and theatre that defined the Trudeau years. Instead, they got something very different.
Prime Minister Carney—perhaps refreshingly, and in contrast to his pre-election style and tone—channeled his inner central banker and came across as somewhat boring, but not dismissible. He was confident but not arrogant. He appeared Prime Ministerial and in command of the moment.
Unlike his predecessor, who may not have passed up the opportunity to twist the knife into the party that was hellbent on his political demise, Carney declared “no games” when expressing his intent to call a by-election in short order if needed to allow Pierre Poilievre to run for a seat in the House of Commons. A solid gesture that may contribute to bringing down the partisan temperature and bringing the country together a little.
The Prime Minister outlined his approach to governing, insisting he has no intention of entering a formal agreement with the NDP to ensure his policies and legislative agenda get passed. It’s not like he must, since Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois can make up the difference where the NDP refuses. It’s a signal that the Prime Minister intends to be more measured in his approach to pushing through legislation, as opposed to ramming it through Parliament with the help of the NDP.
An agenda for the coming weeks was also laid out by the Prime Minister. His immediate priority is a face-to-face with President Trump, which he confirmed will take place on Tuesday, May 6th in Washington, DC. The Prime Minister revealed that his phone call with President Trump earlier this week was positive, emphasizing that the President did not bring up 51st state rhetoric.
Cabinet will be named on May 12th, with Carney hinting that those expecting to return to their pre-election posts should wait until a final decision is made. Parliament will be recalled for May 26th. Both are good signals and a departure from the Trudeau years. The Prime Minister is correct to hit the ground running to instill confidence and some certainty in Canadians who for months were stymied by Parliamentary gridlock culminating in the prorogation and calling of the federal election.
Overall, the Prime Minister set the appropriate tone for a nation seeking a departure from the last ten years. He ditched hyper-partisanship for a more measured approach, harkening back to his days as Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. Even staunch conservatives may find some relief in the shift in tone and rhetoric—at least for now. That, on its own, is a good sign for the country.
This style and tone will not be one-size-fits-all for the political and economic scenarios the Prime Minister may face in the coming days, weeks, and months. Domestic and foreign crises may require more than a central banker’s style. His government’s policies and decisions will affect millions of lives, and approaching these matters like an objectively cold central banker may come across as callous, unrelatable, and condescending to voters who are facing financial and economic hardship.
It is our hope that the Prime Minister keeps his promise of being a Prime Minister for all Canadians. Our country’s problems require coordination and cooperation, a truly unified approach. However, if the Prime Minister pursues some of the more controversial policy prescriptions he very publicly and proudly advocated for before entering public life, his tone may quickly revert to what Canadians were accustomed to and a majority disliked, over the last ten years.
CARNEY’S HEADWINDS
While the Prime Minister appeared confident and in command of the moment during yesterday’s press conference, former Conservative Cabinet Minister Ed Fast cautions the Liberals against taking a victory lap. Two early, but fundamental, domestic and foreign headwinds will directly challenge his ability to govern in multiple crisis situations.
A Looming Recession
The early days of the Carney government are already colliding with economic headwinds that could derail its political momentum. While Mark Carney enters office with global credibility and a mandate focused on climate, equity, and long-term competitiveness, economists are sounding the alarm. Concerns are mounting over rising government spending, weak business investment, and regulatory overreach, all while inflation remains stubborn and productivity continues to flatline.
The greatest long-term threat to Canada isn’t ideological… it’s economic stagnation. Productivity is lagging, capital is fleeing, and an overreliance on government spending has created structural fiscal pressures. Carney’s economic credentials are his strongest asset, but they will mean little if he doesn’t act decisively. His government must prioritize tax and regulatory reform, infrastructure investment, and monetizing Canada’s innovation economy. Unleashing the full potential of the resource sector, including oil and gas, would be a smart place to start.
The new government doesn’t have the luxury of a soft start. Early signals such as weak business investment, shaky consumer confidence, persistent inflation, and sluggish productivity suggest the economy may already be in a recession.
How Carney responds will define the early arc of his government. A recession, even a mild one, would quickly test the durability of his mandate and the credibility of his governing agenda. Canadians didn’t elect a central banker for symbolism, they expect results. The Prime Minister must move beyond tone-setting and act decisively, or risk losing the public’s patience before his government finds its footing.
Charting a Path Away from the United States
Carney has frequently stated that the relationship with the United States has fundamentally changed. The trade war Trump initiated has soured relations between the two nations, even though anti-Trumpism was a feature of the Trudeau and early Carney governments. Carney views this as an opportunity to shift Canada away from the sphere of influence, shadow, or however one wishes to describe the relationship, of the United States of America.
The expected move away from America comes with perils for Canada. We are a natural partner of the United States, born of the same colonial power, although we charted very different paths to the present. We do need the United States, both as an economic partner and military ally. We are a fraction of the U.S. economy, and our military is but a drop in the proverbial bucket of capability compared to the world’s greatest superpower. Resetting a relationship and pivoting away from the United States are two different things. The former recognizes the value of the relationship in past, present, and future terms while working toward mending political wounds. The latter comes stark with economic and security risks.
Carney has prided himself as a “Globalist,” a label that President Trump has frequently lashed out against as the source of America’s plundered blood and treasure over the late 20th and early 21st centuries. As such, Carney is naturally pulled toward Europe, China, and global institutions that those of his ideological ilk see as the mechanisms through which domestic policy—particularly economic and monetary—should be channeled. The Prime Minister isn’t just seeking new markets for Canadian goods (natural resources excluded); he’s attempting to fundamentally reorient Canada toward very unfamiliar and risky territory.
If Canadians’ chief concern is the economy, then aligning ourselves with the EU could potentially worsen the situation. The EU is often bogged down by bureaucracy, overregulation, and slow, consensus-driven decision-making that stifles innovation and economic growth. Its one-size-fits-all policies have left weaker economies behind, while democratic accountability suffers under layers of unelected institutions. As Canada faces its own economic stagnation, emulating a system marked by low productivity, high debt, and centralized control is a risk we can’t afford to take.
Canada’s cultural, economic, and security alignment has always leaned toward the United States, not Europe. From trade and defence to media and technology, our daily lives are more intertwined with American institutions than with Brussels. A deliberate pivot away from the U.S. in favour of deeper alignment with Europe may play well in elite circles, but it risks feeling unnatural to most Canadians. It’s a shift that could come across as out of step with our lived reality and one that undermines decades of practical integration with our closest ally and largest trading partner.
Mark Carney has not shied away from his affinity for and appreciation of China’s economy and domestic leadership. He has personally met with Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping (although he insists on being referred to as President), praised China’s role in the development of artificial intelligence, and has relationships with key business elites who have vested interests in the Chinese economy.
While polling suggests Canadians are warming to closer economic ties with China, it comes with significant risks. Replacing dependence on the U.S. with reliance on an authoritarian state does not achieve true diversification, it simply swaps partners while keeping the vulnerability. China’s record of using trade as a political weapon, most notably during the Meng Wanzhou dispute, has directly harmed Canadian farmers and exporters. It is not a reliable trading partner, and its protectionist, state-driven policies undermine fair competition. Beyond the economics, the ideological gulf between our two countries is widening. From human rights abuses to election interference, there is growing public and political resistance to aligning more closely with Beijing. Canada would be wiser to pursue real diversification by strengthening trade with stable, like-minded democracies, rather than cozying up to a regime that sees commerce as a tool of coercion.
Both China and the EU have stated their intent to form a global opposition to the United States and have invited Canada to join them. If Canadians thought Trump was targeting Canada over trade issues before, imagine being caught in the crosshairs between President Trump, Ursula von der Leyen, and Xi Jinping. If Canada is proven to—or even perceived to—be helping the EU or China circumvent trade restrictions or rules that undermine Trump’s agenda, suddenly 25 percent tariffs seem like nothing. Make no mistake, that scenario would be nuclear for Canada.
ABOUT TO THE POINT
To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
