To the Point for the Week of April 20, 2025
Week of April 20, 2025 – To the Point
Perhaps the most consequential federal election in a generation is entering its final days. In our final To the Point before election day, we assess the state of the race going into the weekend and give our best guess as to what the outcome will be.
INTO THE FINAL STRETCH
Our April 6th edition of To the Point highlighted a perceived shift in the election that, at the time, was not reflected in the daily bombardment of polling data from various polling companies. Fast forward two weeks, and those signals are now being confirmed: multiple pollsters are showing the race progressively tightening. Some, like Mainstreet, even have the Tories pulling ahead.
Since Canada’s worst fears leading up to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” did not come to fruition, Canadians have refocused their attention on the issues that made the Trudeau Liberals so incredibly unpopular in the first place: the rising cost of living, a housing crisis with no foreseeable end, rampant violent crime, and stagnant economic growth. Poilievre and the Conservatives are using these issues as a beachhead to launch their counteroffensive against Carney’s positioning as the best candidate to stand up to President Trump. And it’s working. Without the spectre of Trump looming over the campaign, Canadians—particularly young people—are zeroing in on the condition of their own lives.
Poilievre hasn’t just campaigned on these issues—he’s owned them. While Carney and the Liberals have tried to keep the focus on Trump, Poilievre has stayed locked in on what Canadians are actually feeling: rising prices, housing instability, urban crime, and a growing sense that the country is adrift. His message hasn’t changed—but that’s the point. It’s simple, relentless, and emotionally resonant.
And it’s not just rhetoric. Over the past two weeks, the Conservatives have shown message discipline and operational strength. Their ground game is real—targeted, organized, and built around voter contact in the ridings that matter. The campaign has made smart use of digital, leaned into Poilievre’s authenticity online, and sharpened its attacks on Liberal economic management without sounding overcooked.
Carney may still win the leadership optics war, but Poilievre is increasingly winning the argument about how Canadians are living. And in a race this tight, that distinction might matter more than anything else.
We cannot stress enough that we are all about signals and not noise—and the biggest signal that these issues are overtaking Trump’s trade war as the ballot question is Carney’s sudden decision to thrust Trump back into the spotlight. Carney stated this week that his March 28th call with President Trump did not go as he had originally described. According to Carney at the time, the call between the two leaders was very productive. The two reportedly found common ground and began establishing a path toward a workable post-election relationship. Most significantly, Carney said President Trump respected Canada’s sovereignty and had cooled talk of making Canada the 51st state. It was a big win. The perception was that the Prime Minister stood up to Trump—and that Trump backed down. But maybe it worked too well, reinforcing the idea that only Carney could hold the line.
The call took place a month ago, but only now is Carney suggesting that no, the call didn’t go as smoothly as he first claimed. He now says the President did bring up making Canada the 51st state. Trump is back in the spotlight.
The prevailing read among politicos, journalists, and pundits is that Carney lied about the call at the time—and is only now coming clean about Trump’s renewed ambitions. Our reading is the opposite. Why would Carney lie and say Trump respected Canada’s sovereignty? If Trump truly posed an existential threat to Canada, why not lean into that narrative right after the call? Because the Liberals recognized that the ballot issues were shifting. They needed to pull out their Trump card (pun most certainly intended). And while both the media and the Tories are calling out the inconsistency, the move might still succeed in one key respect: putting Trump back in the minds of Canadians as they head to the ballot box.
Our assessment of the race at this very moment is that Poilievre and the Tories continue to slowly build momentum heading into the final days of the campaign. Peaking in the final stretch is exactly where you want to be if the race is as tight as it appears. That said, Carney still benefits from the lingering perception that he’s the only candidate capable of staring down Trump. The question now is whether that perception is enough to carry the Liberals across the finish line—or whether Canadians have a true desire for change. Turnout among younger voters, especially men, and how much oxygen Trump ends up consuming in the final news cycle could decide it.
PREDICTIONS
Folks who have worked for decades in politics and campaigns tend to develop a sixth sense about elections—it becomes easier to predict the outcome based on a combination of factors. Sometimes, you can even call the result before the writ is dropped (see Ontario Election 2025).
All this being said, we cannot recall an election in recent memory—either federal or provincial—where the outcome was not easily discernible going into the final days, or even at the outset. Our team has been wracking our brains, oscillating between potential outcomes, looking at all the factors like trying to read tea leaves.
Are the polls accurate? Depends on who you ask. Obviously, polling firms will insist their methodologies and data are sound, within a reasonable margin of error. But there’s something to be said about who is responding to polls in the traditional sense. Older voters are often heavily weighted in polls since they are more likely to pick up the phone. Younger voters, almost universally, will not answer a call from an unknown number.
Candice Malcolm of the independent news outlet Juno News posted an interesting piece arguing why the polls are wrong. She explains that her outlet has pioneered the “neighbour poll,” a method that asks people who they think their neighbours are voting for, aiming to capture community sentiment and enthusiasm while reducing response bias. Malcolm suggests it is Poilievre and the Conservatives with the lead—albeit a slight one.
Whether you believe the mainstream polling firms or these unique methods of capturing voter sentiment, the fact remains: it’s still difficult to predict the outcome either way. Poilievre has the momentum. Carney still holds the edge on Prime Ministerial qualities. The question is whether a late Liberal pivot to Trump can freeze a Conservative surge already in motion.
Popular independent polling analyst and internet personality Bryan Breguet posted an analysis of advance voting data and concluded that the typical advance voter is older, more educated, wealthier, and likely a woman—demographics that heavily favour the Liberals. In other words, Pierre Poilievre’s path to victory rests on an overwhelming turnout among voters 55 years and younger to put him over the finish line.
While the Conservatives appear to be peaking at the best possible time, is it enough? We can’t help but look back to January when the tariff crisis emerged. The Tories made a critical error by assuming the Liberals would collapse under their own weight. Instead, the Liberals used the moment to frame the election around Donald Trump—with help from media allies—which tilted the early momentum in their favour. It was a miscalculation that made Poilievre’s task far harder than it needed to be. To his credit, Poilievre’s strong campaign performance has made it competitive. But it may not be enough to fully overcome that early setback.
Therefore, we predict the election will result in a minority government that will last a couple of years at most, propped up by the Bloc Québécois (the NDP, by contrast, appear to be on a collision course with irrelevance under Jagmeet Singh). Bloc support is likely because of their preference for securing concessions for Quebec while avoiding a destabilizing federal election. The result will be a fractured, ineffective Parliament—not unlike the political gridlock that led to prorogation. Another election in 2027 or 2028 seems inevitable.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This election marks the beginning of a new political era in Canada. Whether it becomes an era of renewal or division remains to be seen. The traditional political coalitions that shaped Canadian elections for a generation are breaking down. Younger voters, particularly younger men, are moving in a more conservative direction. At the same time, boomers who once anchored Liberal and centrist coalitions are slowly aging out of the electorate. What replaces the old order will define the next decade of Canadian politics.
The cracks in national unity are also becoming harder to ignore. Alberta and Quebec are already positioning themselves to demand greater autonomy from Ottawa. Regional economic divides are deepening. Discontent with federal leadership is not confined to any one province anymore. If political leaders fail to adapt, Canada could face a prolonged period of gridlock, regional instability, and weakening national cohesion.
What happens next will depend on whether the country’s political class can recognize the changes underway and rise to meet them—or whether they continue to cling to old assumptions while the ground shifts beneath their feet.
ONpoint will continue to deliver clear, strategic insights to help our clients anticipate these shifts and make informed decisions. As Canada's political landscape transforms, we will be ready to guide you through what comes next.
ABOUT TO THE POINT
To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
