To the Point for the Week of April 6, 2025

To the Point for the Week of April 6, 2025

ONTARIO 

Ford Executes on Campaign Tariff Response Promise

Premier Ford kicked the week off by delivering on his campaign promise to respond to President Trump’s tariffs, executing Phase 1 of Ontario’s Economic Action Plan (EAP). The EAP delivers a mix of tax deferrals, targeted grants, and sector-specific relief designed to shield businesses and communities from immediate trade fallout. Key measures include a six-month deferral on ten provincial business taxes, a boosted LCBO wholesale discount for bars and restaurants, a $40 million grant program for trade-impacted communities, and a $2 billion WSIB surplus distribution to eligible employers. It’s a stopgap—yes—but one that sends a clear message: Ontario is preparing for a prolonged period of economic disruption, and Phase 1 is just the starting point.

Based on our decades of experience in government and our read of the political landscape, we expect more structural responses to unfold in the months ahead. Future phases will likely include expanded financial support for businesses and workers in exposed sectors, along with a broader push to modernize the province’s economic development toolkit. Interprovincial trade reform may re-emerge as Ontario seeks to improve market access, and infrastructure tied to supply chain resilience is expected to be prioritized—particularly in manufacturing-heavy regions. Sector-specific support for industries like EVs and advanced manufacturing is also likely, framed through the lens of innovation and job creation. Finally, don’t rule out another round of regulatory reform focused on reducing red tape and bolstering investor confidence. While nothing is yet confirmed, the direction of travel is becoming increasingly clear.

The Ontario government is framing its $11 billion Economic Action Plan as a significant relief package, but much of it leans on temporary cash flow measures rather than direct financial aid. The $9 billion in support comes from a six-month tax deferral on provincially administered taxes—relief that will need to be fully repaid by October 1, 2025. While helpful in the short term, it functions more like an interest-free loan than a subsidy. The additional $2 billion WSIB surplus distribution is also not new funding, but a return of existing surpluses to eligible Schedule 1 employers. For clients, the key takeaway is that while Phase 1 signals intent, the most meaningful opportunities may emerge in future phases—making proactive engagement with government critical in the weeks ahead.

FEDERAL ELECTION

Something’s Happening Here

But what it is ain’t exactly clear. Before the federal election began, we anticipated a toss-up. But just one week into the campaign, it seemed the political terrain had tilted decisively against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Their failure to move quickly in January during the tariff crisis allowed the Liberals to seize the narrative, refocus public attention away from Trudeau, and position Mark Carney as a calm, statesmanlike alternative. At that stage, the Liberals appeared to be trending toward majority territory.

Fast forward to the halfway point, and the landscape feels markedly different. The Conservatives may have taken the advice of Premier Ford’s longtime strategist, Kory Teneycke, who publicly warned the campaign for failing to establish a ballot question. Since then, the Tories have refocused their message on familiar territory: China, resource development, and criminal justice. While tariffs and Trump remain headline issues, the absence of the "51st state" rhetoric may have created space for the Conservatives to push other priorities into public view. As we’ve written before, politics is about signal, not noise—and there are growing signs that this race may be tight or tightening.

The turning point arguably began with Liberal candidate Paul Chiang’s controversial comments suggesting his opponent be delivered to the Chinese Consulate. Since then, Carney has faced persistent criticism over his connections to individuals, businesses, and organizations linked to the Chinese Communist Party. His response to media questions, perceived by some as dismissive or aloof, has only amplified scrutiny. The issue gained further traction with the revelation that Peter Yuen, parachuted in to replace Chiang, had previously attended a 2015 Chinese military parade hosted by the People’s Liberation Army. These developments have punctured some of the aura around Carney’s candidacy and raised new questions about his positioning on national security.

In parallel, the Liberal campaign has appeared reactive. After Poilievre rolled out his “One and Done” policy to expedite resource project approvals, Carney quickly announced a similar “single window” approach, inviting comparisons that suggest the Liberals are repackaging Conservative ideas in red. The Conservatives also turned up the volume on criminal justice this week, unveiling a “Three Strikes and You’re Out” proposal. Within 24 hours, both Carney and Public Safety Minister Bill Blair promised tougher bail, sentencing reforms, more police, and stronger border controls—positions that stand in contrast to the government’s posture over the last decade.

As expected, the Liberals have also returned to familiar terrain when the news cycle turns unfavourable, specifically guns and abortion. This week saw the return of proposals to “remove assault weapons from our communities,” a phrase often deployed as a catchall during difficult stretches. Although not officially introduced by the party, media surrogates like Toronto Star columnist Althia Raj have begun raising the issue of abortion access that establishes a runway for the Liberals to insert it into the broader election narrative.

Lastly, Carney briefly suspended his campaign to attend an in-person cabinet meeting in Ottawa on the tariffs file. While the Prime Minister could have joined virtually, the optics suggest a strategic pivot: reinforcing Carney as Prime Ministerial while also placing physical and narrative distance between him and the ongoing controversy surrounding China, business ties, and temperament.

While the race began with a clear Liberal lead, recent developments suggest momentum may be shifting. The Conservative campaign has sharpened its message, while the Liberals find themselves on the defensive. Although there is no definitive polling swing cited here, the dynamics of the race are evolving. For clients, this means staying alert to a potential narrowing of the gap and preparing for policy volatility on issues like trade, national security, and resource development depending on how the final stretch of the campaign unfolds.

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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.