To the Point for the Week of April 13, 2025
To the Point for the Week of April 13, 2025
With Ontario’s spring legislative session officially underway, the Ford government used its latest Speech from the Throne to double down on long-standing priorities: housing, infrastructure, and workforce development while drawing new fault lines with Ottawa. We break down what’s new, what’s not, and what’s missing. Meanwhile, the federal campaign heats up as the most high-stakes leaders’ debates in a generation kick off this week. And in Washington, Canada’s trade standing is quietly slipping from view.
ONTARIO
PC Government Outlines Its Priorities and Agenda
The Ford government opened the spring legislative session with a Speech from the Throne that stuck to familiar terrain: build big, train fast, and brace for global headwinds. Titled Protect Ontario, the speech leaned on historical references to the 2008 financial crisis and flagged growing volatility in the U.S. as a reason to double down on economic self-reliance. The message wasn’t new, but the tone was more urgent. It’s less victory lap and more weather report. It positioned Ontario as a jurisdiction preparing for instability, not just reacting to it.
The government’s priorities largely reaffirm existing directions. On housing, the 1.5 million home target remains the north star, with continued efforts to streamline approvals and reduce building costs. On infrastructure, the speech reiterated commitments to major projects like Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass, and the Ontario Line. On the labour front, Ontario is putting over $1 billion toward the Skilled Trades Strategy and will introduce legislation to recognize credentials from other provinces, aimed at closing labour gaps and improving mobility. Economic policy focused on reducing red tape, keeping taxes low, and introducing legislation to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers. Healthcare remained a central theme, with pledges to build 30,000 long-term care beds, hire 27,000 staff by 2028, and continue rolling out the province’s mental health roadmap. The affordability file also made an appearance, with renewed commitments to cut fees and keep everyday costs down.
The speech hits all the important notes, building homes and infrastructure, investing in workers, and keeping costs down. However, it carries a bit of a Groundhog Day feel, with Ontario waking up to the same promises and priorities we’ve heard time and again.
Take, for example, the Ring of Fire critical mineral deposit in Northern Ontario. The government once again highlighted the Ring of Fire as a pillar of Ontario’s economic future, emphasizing critical minerals, Indigenous partnerships, and infrastructure planning. But seven years after Premier Ford vowed to "hop on a bulldozer" himself, there are still no shovels in the ground. Progress remains stuck in environmental assessments and early-stage agreements, with little to show beyond more promises and planning.
Or how about solving the housing crisis? While Canada more broadly is said to have had a lost decade of economic growth and productivity, the same could be said for the province’s performance on housing in the last two years. The province continues to tout its goal of building 1.5 million homes by 2031, but the numbers tell a different story. As of early 2024, only 285,000 homes had been started since the target was set in 2021—just 19 percent of the way there, with six years left. Hitting the target requires an average of 150,000 new homes per year. In 2023, Ontario managed just over 109,000 completions, and projections for 2024 are even lower at 81,300 starts. At the current pace, the goal is not just ambitious, it’s out of reach. Ontario has never built 1.5 million homes in any ten-year period, and experts say that doubling the current pace would be necessary just to keep hope alive. Even the government's own projections quietly admit the gap is growing. The commitment remains, but so far, the progress does not.
The speech also focuses on improving healthcare and making Ontario more economically self-reliant. Has hallway healthcare been solved? Are we any more self-sufficient since COVID ended? Remember how we weren’t going to rely on the rest of the world? That was two years ago. These are huge structural problems that could take decades to fix. After seven years in power, the PCs are still learning that big, complex challenges require steady, focused action. Tackling everything at once has stretched capacity and slowed momentum. Real progress will depend on prioritizing and sequencing what comes next.
The issues outlined above are dependent, in part, on action from the federal government: increasing health transfers from 22% to 35%, sharing revenues generated by reciprocal tariffs with businesses and workers, eliminating interprovincial trade barriers, improving regulatory processes for critical mineral and resource development, and fixing the bail system. As of today, Prime Minister Carney has made no specific commitments to increase health transfers. He has promised—again, with limited detail—to address bail reform, eliminate trade barriers, and support resource projects.
One request that’s conspicuously missing from the speech, and which many experts argue is essential to solving the housing crisis, is a call to fix Canada’s broken immigration system. A recent Fraser Institute study found that annual housing starts from 2022 to 2024 were virtually identical to those from 1972 to 1974, despite the country’s population growing more than three times faster. CIBC is also forecasting higher-than-expected population growth over the next few years that will certainly add strain on already overstretched housing supply.
A Speech from the Throne is as much an agenda-setting document as it is a political tool. Given the speculation around Premier Ford’s future ambitions, it’s hard not to see this one as a preview of a federal campaign platform. The speech positions Ford as a nation-builder—pushing for free trade within Canada, championing infrastructure, and warning about U.S. protectionism. It also outlines clear battlegrounds with Ottawa on healthcare, energy, and economic sovereignty. If Mark Carney becomes the face of the federal Liberals, this speech reads like the first contrast case: Ford as the voice of provincial autonomy, pragmatism, and a Canada that builds again. Beyond the policy checklist, the speech offers a glimpse into how Ford sees his own political trajectory.
FEDERAL
Let’s Get Ready to Rumble
The most anticipated federal leaders’ debates since John Turner versus Brian Mulroney are set to kick off this evening with the French-language debate in Montreal. The timing is pivotal. The spectre of Trump economically crippling Canada and swallowing our sovereignty has somewhat dissipated, and other issues are rising to the top. The Liberals appear to have reached their ceiling, even while still holding a slight edge. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to have momentum.
We noted several signals last week that the race might be tightening, despite the lack of definitive polling data at the time. What a difference a week makes. Ipso’s Darrell Bricker now confirms that tangible tightening is underway, with issues like affordability moving to the forefront. That’s good news for Pierre Poilievre.
He may have more good news coming. The debates fall just ahead of a long weekend aligning with a pattern that historically has produced significant voter shifts. In 2006, the Martin Liberals were leading before the Christmas break, but the Harper Conservatives pulled ahead afterward and won a minority. In 2015, Canadians decided over Thanksgiving weekend that it was time for a change, handing Trudeau a majority. Maybe family dinners matter more than we think.
All of this sets the stage for intense debates that could reshape the race.
To hold off the Conservative surge, Mark Carney needs to keep the focus on Trump, tariffs, and sovereignty. He must contrast his image as a safe, steady, and experienced leader with Poilievre’s perceived brashness and populist style. Policy-wise, he needs to reinforce how different he is from his predecessor—on criminal justice, resource development, and economic growth—even if some of those positions echo Conservative ones. He also needs to highlight quick wins, especially the zeroing out of the consumer carbon tax. And he must keep his cool. A flash of arrogance or a quick temper could undo everything. Carney’s job this week is to lock in his status as the confident frontrunner.
For Poilievre, the debate could make or break his chances of pulling off an upset. A recent Postmedia–Leger poll found that voters backing him cite “hope” as their motivator, while Carney supporters mostly cite “fear.” Poilievre should lean into that contrast and make the debate about long-term leadership, not short-term reaction. He has openings. Carney’s handling of the Paul Chiang affair and his proximity to Chinese Communist Party interests could be pressure points, but he needs to raise them without sounding like Trump. If the focus shifts away from Trump altogether, Poilievre has the advantage.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet have one job: take votes away from Carney. The NDP has hemorrhaged support to the Liberals and needs to reconnect with its labour base. That might mean sounding a little more centrist. Blanchet must split his fire between Poilievre and Carney while reminding Quebecers that only the Bloc truly understands La Belle Province’s unique identity and place in Confederation.
There are two things every campaign team knows going into the debate. First, the full debate will mostly be watched by voters aged 55 and older who are firmly decided and tuning in to cheer on their candidate. Second, the undecideds and potential swing voters will consume the debate through viral clips. Gen X, millennials, and Gen Z will be driving that engagement. That gives Poilievre the edge. His brand is built for social media, and those clips have the potential to reach non-voters and first-time voters. That’s not to say Boomers won’t be sharing videos too—especially on Facebook—but high-impact moments will dominate timelines and could ultimately shape the outcome.
DISPATCHES FROM WASHINGTON
While Canadians prepare for the leaders’ debates, Washington is looking elsewhere. Through ONpoint’s expanding network of contacts in the United States, we’re picking up signals that Canada’s standing in Washington is shifting. Not in a hostile way, but in a quiet, strategic sidelining. The headlines might suggest hostility and a deeply strained relationship, but the mood behind closed doors is more complicated. Canada is no longer top of mind, and in a hyper-competitive trade environment, that silence speaks volumes.
Support for USMCA is still strong, and most officials recognize the value of Canadian trade, especially at the state level. But the conversation is changing. Washington is fixated on China, the European Union, and domestic reshoring. Canada is not seen as part of a broader North American strategy, but as one of many players in the background. Even the most Canada-friendly voices are framing the relationship in terms of local jobs and exports, not continental cooperation. Longstanding irritants like dairy keep bubbling up, and there’s quiet speculation that a federal leadership change could help reset the tone.
The U.S. trade agenda is crowded and moving fast. Canada is no longer the first call, and in some rooms, it isn’t in the conversation at all. For businesses exposed to tariffs, cross-border supply chains, or shifting regulatory climates, this is a moment to pay close attention. Stay informed, monitor developments, and be ready to adapt. The policy landscape is changing, and the companies that succeed will be the ones that see it coming.
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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
