To the Point for the Week of August 3rd, 2025
A quick word before jumping into this week’s To the Point. ONpoint Strategy Group is launching Points of Interest — a daily roundup of the top political, policy, and business stories you need to know. Starting Monday, August 11, we’ll send a concise, curated briefing straight to your inbox, spotlighting the developments that matter most to our clients. It’s a quick read designed to keep you informed, save you time, and make sure you never miss an update that could shape your priorities or sector.
Ontario’s Premier made waves on the U.S. media circuit, while in Ottawa, Pierre Poilievre is preparing for his return to the House of Commons. Both are navigating moments that could define their political capital, Ford in the context of tense trade negotiations with Washington, and Poilievre as he works to reset his image and rally his caucus behind a revamped Conservative agenda.
ONTARIO
The Premier’s U.S. Media Engagement and Trade Implications
Premier Ford’s appearances on CNN have been a regular occurrence in 2025, most recently in an interview with Wolf Blitzer regarding President Trump’s tariffs this past Thursday. His earlier appearances, both before the provincial election and at the outset of the trade war, served diplomatic and domestic political purposes. However, participation in partisan-leaning U.S. outlets carries potential drawbacks. While CNN still reaches a sizable American audience (though in steady decline), that audience has little influence over the decision-makers driving trade policy in Washington. Consequently, the Premier’s tone and messaging have the potential to negatively impact ongoing negotiations.
Domestically, Ford’s strong public comments have coincided with emerging differences among his fellow premiers and risk deepening fissures that could be exploited by negotiators in Washington. BC Premier David Eby has cautioned against adding tariffs without strategic purpose, while Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has suggested rolling back some counter-tariffs. Prime Minister Carney has also signalled openness to adjusting measures that may be negatively affecting Canadian businesses and consumers. What began as a unified provincial approach has shifted toward competing perspectives on Canada’s next moves at the bargaining table, potentially making it more challenging for Ottawa to maintain a consistent position with the U.S.
For our clients engaged in cross-border trade, these developments illustrate the difficulty of maintaining a unified front while each province seeks to protect its jurisdictional interests. Alignment can quickly give way to internal divisions. A fragmented domestic message and varying policy priorities can reduce Canada’s negotiating leverage, especially when dealing with counterparts in President Trump’s administration who have shown a willingness to use divisions to their advantage. The takeaway for our clients is that highly charged rhetoric carries a higher risk of undermining the progress made by presenting a united front.
Ford has stated that Canada shouldn’t settle for anything less than the right deal, a position that aligns with the federal government’s stated objectives. However, overuse of combative rhetoric can backfire, leading to an awkward walk-back. The Premier’s earlier threats to cut electricity exports to Northern U.S. states — and the subsequent reversal — illustrate how public statements without a clear follow-through plan can create strategic and reputational risks. While it appears the incident did not derail negotiations, it is a reminder for our clients of how quickly elevated emotions can influence the negotiation environment, even if remarks are primarily aimed at domestic audiences.
Negotiating with the Trump White House requires a careful combination of credibility, strategic firmness, and practical deliverables. The President responds to clear leverage and tangible outcomes rather than symbolic gestures. A balanced approach — firm but not combative in public forums, paired with coordinated, behind-the-scenes engagement — is more likely to preserve negotiating strength while avoiding unnecessary escalation.
The coming months will bring significant tests, with negotiations on lumber, energy, and agriculture expected to run parallel to broader trade talks. Ford and his provincial counterparts would be well served to coordinate their positions and messaging with the federal government. Toning down the intense combativeness and easing bitter feelings could help course-correct negotiations and secure a deal in the short to medium term. We will continue to monitor for our clients any shifts in messaging from the Premier’s Office toward a more unified Canadian strategy, whether counter-tariffs are adjusted, and how public statements are calibrated to support — rather than complicate — the negotiation process.
Ultimately, while media appearances and strong messaging can rally domestic audiences, it is the quiet, coordinated diplomacy that often drives results in trade negotiations. Our clients should be prepared for continued high-visibility statements from political leaders, while also watching for the less-visible diplomatic signals that may indicate substantive movement in Canada–U.S. trade relations.
FEDERAL
Poilievre Prepares to Re-Enter the Ring
We’ve spent a lot of time in recent months focusing on the major policy and political moves of the Carney government. The seat distribution in the legislature, coupled with continued public support, gives the Liberal government a sort of quasi-majority. This has left little room for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre to maneuver. Without a seat in the legislature, Poilievre is relegated to making statements outside the chamber after question period or weekly caucus meetings. It has been a tough slog for the Conservative leader to get meaningful airtime or exposure beyond social media. Canadians typically tune out between election cycles, and the longer Poilievre is without a seat, the more irrelevant voters perceive him to be.
It’s not surprising, then, that polls show the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by about ten points, give or take. The numbers have remained relatively stable since the election. Canadians still see Prime Minister Carney as their top choice, and if an election were held today, the Liberals would likely win a supermajority handily.
The Liberals, however, should not take this for granted. One hundred days into Carney’s tenure has yet to produce a comprehensive trade deal with the United States. The Prime Minister has not identified any resource or infrastructure project considered a nation-building initiative under Bill 5. First Nations communities have vowed to be a thorn in the side of the Carney government if it is perceived to be overstepping its duty to consult. He has not tabled a budget. Crime is rampant. Immigration remains a major concern. The housing crisis persists.
The Prime Minister may come to regret his commitment to avoid political games, as he lived up to his promise to call a by-election shortly after the general election to give Mr. Poilievre an opportunity to secure a seat in the House. The Conservative leader is expected to dominate the competition in the Battle River–Crowfoot (AB) by-election on August 18th, even with 214 names on the ballot.
Poilievre appears to be taking nothing for granted and is putting in work. Perhaps the political veteran, who held his Ottawa riding for over twenty-one years, was humbled by the loss in the general. He has spent the past several months consulting caucus members on lessons learned from the defeat and mapping the party’s next steps. He has noticeably toned down the sloganeering and the confrontational approach toward legacy media, which is predominantly consumed by those aged 55 and older. Personnel changes were made this week as long-time Poilievre ally and 2025 campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, is stepping out of her role to focus on her consulting business.
He has also outlined the Conservative agenda for when he returns to the House this fall. Poilievre announced this week that the Conservatives will introduce an opposition bill called the Canadian Sovereignty Act. According to the party, the legislation would take a sledgehammer to regulatory barriers by repealing Bill C-69, scrapping the oil and gas emissions cap, eliminating the tanker moratorium, and essentially “legalizing” every major project currently at risk of being tied up in red tape.
The plan goes further than removing barriers. It calls for eliminating the capital gains tax on reinvestment, protecting Canadian innovations from American buyouts, and setting hard deadlines for getting shovels in the ground on pipelines and Ring of Fire infrastructure by March 2026. It’s an ambitious play that argues Canada can’t build anything under current laws — even when projects are approved — because overlapping bans and caps strangle development before it starts. There are also signs that Poilievre will pivot to crime and immigration, with policy positions expected in the coming months.
Poilievre is crafting an agenda with the potential to shift the political landscape. None of these positions are new; he held them before the election, and Canadians largely supported the policies, just not Poilievre himself. By distilling lessons from his loss into the Canadian Sovereignty Act, he has given his caucus a rallying cry: cut the red tape choking pipelines and major projects, defer capital gains taxes when reinvested domestically, and lock in deadlines for the Ring of Fire and energy infrastructure. The Conservatives wouldn’t just have talking points. They’d have a legislative anchor capable of turning voter frustration into forward momentum. If Poilievre can keep the focus on policy over personality, he may finally have the foundation to mount a serious challenge to Carney’s quasi-majority upon his return to the ring.
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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
