To The Point Week of July 20, 2025
To The Point Week of July 20, 2025
Welcome to this week’s To The Point, where we cut through the noise to bring you sharp, actionable insights on the stories shaping Ontario and Canada. From trade wars to immigration debates and municipal budgets, we’re diving into the issues that matter.
Premiers Unite Against U.S. Tariffs: Elbows Back Up?
This week, in picturesque Muskoka, Premier Ford hosted the Prime Minister and the 13 premiers in an effort to unite against President Donald Trump’s ever-evolving tariff threats on Canadian goods. In what could best be described as a mutual admiration society, the Prime Minister and Premier Ford heaped praise on one another for their tireless work to confront tariff impacts on Canada. To underscore the strength of their relatively new relationship, the Premier made a point of mentioning that the Prime Minster spent the evening at his cottage, where the two spoke well into the night.
The evolution of this newly minted friendship aside, Carney’s self-imposed July 21st deadline, pushed to August 1st, looks like it might be kicked out even further, as the Prime Minister emphatically shifted his language to a “fair deal” for Canada.
Businesses reliant on cross-border trade are already bracing for disruption and we hope that the government is listening to industry leaders on the ground who would much prefer to negotiate zero tariffs and protect their businesses than subsidize job losses. The Ontario Together Trade Fund is a good start to support this approach, but we suspect it will be largely oversubscribed, which makes further investments from the province through the Fall Economic Statement all the more necessary.
As the new deadline fast approaches, we suspect the feds will lean more into the “fair deal” language to buffer some space for the lack of a signed deal, a major Carney campaign promise. We will be watching closely.
Ford’s Work Permit Plan Pickle: A Response to Immigration Frustrations
Doug Ford is taking immigration matters into his own hands, announcing plans to issue provincial work permits to asylum seekers using powers under Section 95 of the Constitution. “We aren’t going to wait for Ottawa to act,” Ford declared at the recent Premiers’ summit. With nearly 100,000 asylum seekers in Ontario last year, many stuck in hotels awaiting federal permits, Ford argues faster access to work will ease pressure on public services and housing.
The timing of this announcement is utterly bizarre. The move comes as public sentiment shifts. A recent Environics Institute poll shows 58% of Canadians believe immigration levels are too high, a sharp departure from decades of open-door policies. Youth unemployment in Canada, hovering at 14%, is adding fuel to the debate, with critics arguing that prioritizing asylum seekers for jobs could further sideline young Canadians. Ford counters that enabling asylum seekers to work will reduce reliance on social assistance and boost local economies.
As emotions on the topic evolve, we should expect heated debates as immigration remains a divisive issue. Keep an eye on how Ottawa responds to Ford’s challenge.
Municipalities Called Out on Hording $10 Billion Reserve Fund
Ontario is calling on municipalities to dip into their $10 billion reserve fund, from years of over-collecting, to sustain them through the strained economy. Premier Ford’s government has rolled out a $22 billion infrastructure boost and $10 billion in tax deferrals for businesses, and municipalities are being asked to step up with their own financial firepower. “We need all hands on deck to protect jobs and families,” Ford said, urging local governments to invest in community projects and economic resilience.
This push follows Ford’s $5 billion Protect Ontario Account, aimed at supporting industries hit by tariffs. Municipalities, however, face their own tough choices. Tapping reserves could strain future budgets, especially with housing and service pressures already mounting. All the more reason to look at Municipal Service Board models, for example, as part of a broader strategy to build much-needed housing, which will require significant infrastructure investments.
Folks should settle in as we will watch the municipal-provincial-federal blame game unfold as always, but the fact remains: there is only one taxpayer. Municipal leaders should weigh the long-term impacts of dipping into reserves against immediate economic needs. They cannot operate at a deficit, but the province and the feds can, and are, to the projected tune of ~$14.6 billion and ~$69 billion, respectively.
Businesses and residents are already feeling squeezed from all sides, and knowing there are $10 billion in unused funds while property taxes increase by an average of six percent year over year could create an interesting dynamic in the 2026 municipal elections. Zero-based budgeting might be the cure.
ABOUT TO THE POINT
To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
