To the Point for the Week of August 31, 2025
The ONpoint team hopes you and your family had a joyous, healthy, and eventful summer. We are back to weekly editions of your favorite political insights and with good timing, too. The federal House of Commons will be in full swing starting this coming Monday, September 15th while Queen’s Park will be busy once again beginning on October 20th.
This week, we’ll delve into the politics of “pouring one out” and examine some key issues to watch out for as the federal parliament returns next week.
ONTARIO
Premier Ford Pours One Out
What began as a good news announcement for Kitchener and Waterloo’s housing targets ended with the Premier dumping out a bottle of Crown Royal Whiskey. Upset with Crown Royal’s parent company, Diageo, for shuttering its Amherstburg facility and moving bottling operations to the United States and Quebec, the Premier railed: “A message to the CEO in France: You hurt my people. I’m going to hurt you. You’re going to feel the pain in February when these people don’t have a paycheque.” The Premier unscrewed the top of the bottle, turned it over, and emptied its contents, which took longer than anyone present anticipated.
The spectacle was very on brand for the Premier, and that’s not a criticism. We wish more politicians would be intensely moved by how business decisions impact working people, even if it had nothing to do with Trump’s tariffs. In this case, it was Diageo’s long-standing decision to cut costs as the popularity of spirits waned over the last several years. Unfortunately, Ontario workers got caught in the middle.
It is easy to view the event as simply a political stunt and nothing more. However, the event turned out to be a microcosm of the current state of Ontario politics, impacting the province’s ability to weather headwinds that are progressively getting stronger.
The demonstration is indicative of the government’s growing preference for the performative versus performance. That’s not to say performative politics aren’t useful or critical in selling a particular policy to the public, especially if it’s perceived as unpopular. Nor is a strong performance in government a qualifier for re-election (see Prime Minister Stephen Harper 2015). The Premier’s elevation to Captain Canada and the combative rhetoric employed in the months following the trade tensions were critical to positioning his proposed policy responses to tariffs and generating support for their implementation.
This combative speech is unfortunately showing diminishing returns, as both Secretary Howard Lutnick and the US Ambassador to Canada cited it as a barrier to getting a deal done. Furthermore, the tariff responses implemented by the government must have something to show as data begins to signal serious economic problems in the form of stagnation and higher unemployment. Otherwise, the bombastic words would all be for naught.
Granted, the impact of the types of programs and policies in response to US tariffs may take time to realize. But there is mounting pressure for Premier Ford and his government to show tangible results, not just attention-grabbing moments. If public demonstrations and combative rhetoric are to translate into durable economic protection for workers, there must be visible, measurable progress in the form of job creation, investment, or industry stabilization, especially as job losses and plant closures continue to impact communities across Ontario.
Without clear evidence that these dramatic gestures lead to substantive gains, the risk increases that performative politics will become a substitute for effective policy, leaving workers and local economies exposed to volatility. In this climate, it is increasingly important for the government to bridge the gap between impassioned advocacy and practical outcomes to safeguard Ontario’s future through these economic storms.
FEDERAL
Setting the Stage for Parliament’s Return
Politics can truly be a roller coaster. Before the 2025 election, the Trudeau Liberals looked cooked. Enter stage left, Mark Carney, with the help of President Trump, completely flipping the script and putting the Conservatives on the outside looking in, especially Conservative leader Pierre Poilievere.
It seemed like the Liberals had it made in the shade for at least the short and medium term. The opposition leader didn’t have a seat. Virtually impenetrable public support, despite no significant short-term accomplishments. Top that all off with a broken and battered NDP. It was no wonder that polls were indicating a Liberal supermajority if an election were held over the summer.
Fast forward to August 18th and the dynamic has changed. Pierre Poilievre won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection by an expected landslide and regained his place in the House of Commons. Poilievre has wasted no time since his re-election drawing lines in the sand over immigration, crime and resource development.
A combination of Poilievre’s return to the media spotlight (or maybe a return to under the microscope), a clear lack of progress on securing a trade agreement with the United States, and worsening economic conditions is reducing the amount of sunlight between the Liberals and the Conservatives as indicated in recent polls by Anguis Reid, Liaison Strategies, and Abacus Data.
The emerging shift in the political landscape will surely make for a very raucous return to parliament next week, and while there is a myriad of issues that will dominate the Fall sitting, here are the three key items that could spell trouble for the Liberals.
The Austerity vs Investment Budget
The new parliamentary session opens with the federal budget front and centre. Mark Carney’s Liberals face the daunting task of delivering not just a spending plan but also clear fiscal discipline, with promised operational cuts running up against years of new commitments and a ballooning deficit. The opposition will seize on every line, seeking clarity on where cuts land, what spending grows, and how the government balances “austerity and investment”. In a minority House, even routine financial decisions could trigger political showdowns.
The Economy and Trade
Trade and the economy are a live wire. U.S. tariffs and the slow pace of negotiations cast a shadow on growth expectations, with tens of thousands of jobs, especially in manufacturing, already lost. Parliament will be a platform for local job anxieties and the government’s promises to fast-track resource development and steady market confidence. With recession fears lingering, expect debates to focus as much on how to jumpstart lost investment as on who’s to blame for the current pain.
Immigration and Crime
On immigration and crime, Conservatives are pressing for a total reset. The Temporary Foreign Worker program, which saw over 20% more permits issued than pledged, will be a daily flashpoint. High youth unemployment and job scarcity will figure in pointed questions, with tough-on-crime rhetoric building through private members’ bills and motions to expand self-defence rights. Liberal messaging on reviews and gradual reforms risks sounding weak against calls for clearer action.
With the Liberals trying to walk a political tightrope on spending, Parliament will be a daily pressure cooker. Carney’s budget must convince both nervous markets and a skeptical House that the government can cut fat, deliver strategic investments, and keep deficits in check, all without triggering an immediate showdown with opposition parties eager to pounce on any misstep. The slow drumbeat of layoffs, tariffs, and stalled U.S. trade talks will keep the economy and growth, or lack thereof, squarely in the spotlight and drive heated exchanges on the floor.
Expect little breathing room on immigration and crime. The Temporary Foreign Worker Program has deepened frustrations around youth unemployment and job security, and high-profile calls for tougher crime legislation will be front and centre. Every question period will test Liberal resolve, and every answer will be measured against public impatience and growing opposition confidence.
In this environment, parliamentary survival will depend not only on words but on swift, visible progress. With the ever-present threat of a snap vote, there is no room for political drift. The government will need to prove it can steer Canada through economic and social turbulence; otherwise, another election may come sooner than anyone wants.
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
