To the Point for the Week of September 7, 2025

Bonnie Crombie faces her second biggest test as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. Prime Minister Carney initiates his nation-building balancing act. 

ONTARIO 

Bonnie Voyage?

The USS Gerald Ford is the largest aircraft carrier in the US Navy's fleet at 1,106 feet in length. It's so big, it can easily traverse through the space that separates Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives and Bonnie Crombie's Liberal Party. According to Abacus' last poll of the season, the situation is grim for Crombie as the PCs lead by twenty points.

Things could get worse for Crombie as two thousand Ontario Liberals muster in downtown Toronto this weekend for the party's annual general meeting to decide her future. Crombie needs 50% of delegate support to remain as leader. Unlike the USS Gerald Ford, things may not be smooth sailing—an internal poll found Grits split with 45% wanting Crombie to stay while 38% wanted a leadership race.

The situation gets murkier, and it has Crombie's team biting their nails. The Mainstreet poll obtained by Sabrina Nanji shows that federal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith – Crombie's closest rival and linked to the upstart "New Leaf Liberals" – could only garner 17% when asked who was best to take on Doug Ford. Even still, Crombie's team is nervous since 45% of respondents thought someone other than Crombie was best to challenge Ford. Robocalls rolled out to members to shore up support as recently as a day or two ago.

Could Crombie crumble this week? It's possible but unlikely. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith was the only clear threat, but his overt takeover attempt may be fizzling out. NES (as he's known in Liberal circles) has faced criticism over his approach, even though his message resonated with members. 

What does this mean for the Ontario Liberal Party's electoral prospects? Consider Bonnie Crombie's situation alongside federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Both lost their seats in the last election. Both endured leadership reviews. Both face choices about their party's next incarnation. The key differences: the Conservative Party firmly backs Poilievre's second crack and appears united around immigration, criminal justice, and affordability. Second, caucus united behind him, with members stepping aside so he could return to the House. Most importantly, Poilievre still acts like he has passion for the job.

The party's 2025 election post-mortem released this week reveals a party lacking awareness of public sentiment, direction, and organization. The analysis concluded that focusing on health care and family physicians was completely out of touch—like Doug Ford campaigning on education reform when voters were fixated on Trump and the economy. The review found issues with platform timing, candidate nominations, volunteer shortages, outdated communications, staffing gaps, and Ford's framing—all tactical missteps directly correlated to leadership effectiveness.

A leader needs to inspire confidence, articulate a vision, set the organizational tone, and execute. Whether or not Bonnie Crombie survives this weekend's vote, the Ontario Liberal Party and its leader need introspection beyond an official campaign analysis. There's time for that, but not all the time in the world. Elections creep up quickly, and Doug Ford is already revealing attack vectors for Liberals—most recently appearing out of touch when advising struggling young Canadians to simply work harder to find jobs. Bonnie Crombie may survive the weekend, but unless she steadies the ship, the Ontario Liberals will remain adrift while Doug Ford sails ahead for a fourth time. 

FEDERAL

Major Projects, Major Politics

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first five “projects of national interest” are a deliberate mix. LNG Canada Phase 2 in Kitimat, Ontario’s Darlington small modular reactor, the Contrecœur container terminal near Montreal, and two copper ventures in Saskatchewan and British Columbia each feature Indigenous partnerships. It is a coast-to-coast package pitched as faster approvals, private capital first, and a step toward economic sovereignty.

What is not on the list matters as much as what is. There is no new oil pipeline. Ottawa has explained that projects had to have a private proponent willing to shoulder the financing and provincial alignment. Neither condition currently exists for a pipeline under today’s rules. Carney’s office has emphasized that this is only the first tranche, not a final verdict on future oil infrastructure.

The political reaction has been nuanced. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith expressed disappointment about the omission but also praised elements of the package. She pointed to new areas of common ground after meeting Carney and suggested that Alberta carbon capture projects may find a place in the next wave. This marks a shift in tone from the usual Ottawa-Alberta confrontations and suggests there is room for transactional progress.

Environmental groups and some commentators argue that Ottawa is doubling down on LNG and mining at the wrong moment. They warn the Major Projects Office risks becoming symbolism without structural reform and that the “nation-building” branding simply re-labels projects that were already in motion. These critiques will continue to shadow the rollout.

Strategically, Carney’s approach reflects a balancing act with three objectives. First, Ottawa is seeking regulatory credibility after the costly Trans Mountain delays. The two-year approvals clock and private-sector first screening are meant to restore investor confidence. The real test will be execution. If the first five projects slip on timelines, the brand promise of the Major Projects Office evaporates.

Second, the government is attempting to emphasize economic security without walking away from its climate posture. LNG, nuclear, ports, and copper are being framed as diversification and resilience plays, from export earnings to critical minerals for electrification. At the same time, Liberal MPs remain sensitive about maintaining 2030 and 2035 climate targets, which will constrain how far the government can lean into oil and gas projects before the election.

Third, there is an element of electoral risk management. Leading with lower-carbon energy and critical minerals limits backlash from progressive ridings while keeping a door open to Alberta with signals on carbon capture and the possibility of future tranches. Opposition parties will continue to press the “no pipeline, no plan” line while environmental critics attack LNG and mining as legacy bets. The government’s counter is jobs, exports, and faster permits, but that argument only holds if the timelines are met.

There are several policy realities worth watching beyond the headlines. Indigenous partnerships could be a differentiator in permitting if equity and benefit-sharing agreements are meaningful and not merely performative. The global demand story will also matter, as LNG depends on long-term offtake agreements in Asia and copper relies on grid and electric vehicle expansion. Darlington’s small modular reactor represents a G7 first, and success would validate Canada’s early mover strategy, but delays would fuel criticism of the approvals regime. Finally, pipeline politics are not going away. Smith’s mix of critique and cautious optimism signals that Alberta is not closing the door. If Ottawa adjusts its approach to the oil and gas emissions cap, renewed industry interest will follow and so will renewed pressure from climate-focused Liberals.

Carney’s list is less about ideology and more about sequencing. He is trying to prove that Canada can move major projects on a clear timeline with private capital at the table while holding together a fragile coalition. The wager is that momentum on LNG, nuclear, ports, and copper buys time and credibility to deal with the harder questions later.

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