To the Point for the Week of March 15, 2026
To the Point for the Week of March 15, 2026
We provide a short preview of the upcoming legislative session and next week’s provincial budget. We watched Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience, so you don’t have to.
ONTARIO
Applying a Band-Aid
Professional chefs rely on the broadly true rule of thumb that you are more likely to cut yourself using a dull knife than with a well-sharpened one. Dull knives often slip or slide off of what you’re cutting because it requires more pressure to catch the surface of food. Make no mistake, if handled negligently, a sharp knife can cut you, but dull blades tend to tear and crush tissue, rather than making a clean slice. The injuries take longer to heal and may lead to scarring.
A cut resulting from the use of a dull knife is a perfect metaphor for describing Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC’s polling through the first quarter of 2026. The government’s neglect of the sharpening stone hasn’t resulted in a gaping wound that would require stitches, but a self-inflicted nick will require a Band-Aid.
Abacus Data’s new poll this week shows the Ontario PCs have stabilized the polling slide and the shifting political environment, which still has the potential to favour the Ontario Liberals when they select a new leader. The PCs still lead on vote intention and among committed voters lead 44%-32%. The Abacus poll also found the government’s approvals have rebounded but remain net negative at -5%.
Although the horse race numbers remain positive for the government, the underlying mood of the electorate continues to build toward a clear appetite for change, according to Abacus, up six points since October. Worse, Ontarians perceive the most pressing policy issues – housing, cost of living, healthcare – as heading in the wrong direction, including among PC supporters.
Understanding the political environment is important to understanding the Premier and his government’s approach to the upcoming legislative session and the provincial budget: a cautious, risk-averse strategy that protects their polling lead by emphasizing fiscal restraint, reinforcing the government’s perceived competence on economic and infrastructure files, implementing additional supply-side housing initiatives, and proposing health care tweaks. For example, signals suggest that the government is exploring additional governance changes intended to speed up housing.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy intends to be more cautious and restrained on the government ledger when he tables the budget on March 26. At a recent Empire Club appearance, Bethlenfalvy acknowledged the province’s outlook was uncertain given global economic conditions. Spending restraint is expected given the province’s budget has reached a record $236B, a projected $13.4 deficit, and a debt load that is expected to reach $500B in two years.
Nevertheless, the finance minister is expected to introduce measures to lift business investment, including tax and regulatory moves to reinforce the “open for business” positioning of the economy. Export-oriented sectors are expected to get a boost. Broad infrastructure build-outs will continue, with a focus on roads, transit, and housing-enabling projects, and critical upgrades and procurements for more energy and capacity will continue to address electricity and power needs to support economic growth.
Most significantly, the government is going to implement a re-write of the home-buyer relief proposal outlined in the Fall Economic Statement. The government is expected to extend the HST relief on the purchase of new homes beyond first-time homebuyers after the Premier himself acknowledged, according to his own predictions, that the policy would not spur pre-construction sales on new homes as hoped. The original policy had a price tag of $470M. The extended policy is expected to cost government coffers $2B. This line item represents a go-it-alone mentality on the part of the province to recover from the abysmal 62,561 housing starts in 2025 as the feds signalled no intention to march in lockstep with Ontario.
The government isn’t bleeding out. It’s a small cut. The government’s budget and early legislative priorities are designed to dress the wound, so it heals properly and sharpen the blade for the remainder of the fiscal year. A sharp knife, however, is not enough to go from stabilization to entrenchment of the government’s polling position, and reversing a nagging sentiment that things aren’t going in the right direction will require precision, control and discipline, just like how a professional chef wields his most trusted tool. Without either, the Premier and his government risk the blade slipping from their hand, and we all know, you never try to catch a falling knife.
FEDERAL
The Pierre Poilievre Experience
The federal political landscape seemed to be a steady-as-she-goes type of week for the Carney government. The Prime Minister announced a massive $40B plan to “defend, build and transform” northern Canada and the Arctic region, the Liberals continued their polling dominance, and the government signalled its willingness to coordinate with allies to ensure ships can sail safely through the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Israeli military operation against Iran rages on. It was a typical week, until one story managed to overshadow everything and draw the attention of Canadians, and others around the world.
No, we don’t mean the passing of Chuck Norris (although Chuck Norris didn’t die, he just beat life to death).
What many anticipated as a possibility during last year’s federal election finally came to fruition and could not only be one of the biggest political news stories of the year, but perhaps one of the biggest Canadian political stories ever. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre sat down this week for the longest long-form interview of his political career — and perhaps the most important — with comedian Joe Rogan on the largest podcast in the world, The Joe Rogan Experience (JRE).
The interview was about as wide-ranging as wide-ranging can get. Poilievre gifted Rogan a Canada-branded kettlebell, which prompted a brief history lesson on kettlebells. They discussed mixed martial arts, nutrition, Poilievre’s political origin story, and even the widespread but unfounded internet theory that Justin Trudeau is the offspring of Fidel Castro, which Poilievre effectively stick-handled to avoid being clipped by the opposition as a purveyor of conspiracies.
Former director of communications for Poilievre, Ben Woodfinden, writing in the National Post, argues that Poilievre’s objective in appearing on JRE was to make the case for Canada directly to the American public. In particular, the target demographic was working-class and right-wing or right-leaning Trump voters. According to Woodfinden, the purpose was to foster a political climate of goodwill toward Canada and Canadians, and to highlight the economic costs of tariffs to pressure U.S. negotiators to strike an equitable CUSMA deal with Canada.
While not impossible, a groundswell of affection for Canada strong enough to sway the President seems unlikely, given the President’s tendency to act contrary to the wishes of his own base. But here at home, the interview achieved something even some of his supporters would quietly admit they thought was impossible. Pierre Poilievre managed to replace his image as a hyper-partisan, combative, sloganeering leader with that of a well-articulated, thoughtful, confident, measured, and vision-forward Prime Minister in waiting. Even his most ardent political detractors were forced to admit that Poilievre rose to the occasion.
His performance on JRE displaced any thought that he could be considered an extremist or far right. On several occasions, any other partisan would have gladly taken the opportunity to attack their opponent on the largest platform in the world. Even President Trump labelled Vice-President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as a “very low IQ person” during his appearance. Poilievre refused to criticize Carney on foreign soil and said he had been sending messages of support to the Prime Minister as CUSMA discussions commenced. On immigration, Poilievre did not engage in race-baiting politics but acknowledged the very real and tangible impacts the profound neglect of immigration policy has had on the economy and the social fabric of the country. On crime, Poilievre was blunt and clear about the causes of rising crime without leaning into the caricature of a right-wing politician who favours locking up criminals in for-profit prisons.
It also showed that he was highly knowledgeable across a wide range of files, topics, and issues — political and otherwise — blunting the fact that he is not a formally trained economist like the Prime Minister and instead grounding his expertise in years of public service. From oil to lumber, cars to natural gas, Poilievre’s display of policy chops demonstrated his ability to pivot from partisan fighter to a future national leader and should force the Liberals to take note.
The timing of Poilievre’s appearance on JRE is important. Last week, it was reported the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs in February, on top of the January losses. Moreover, the 2026 World Happiness Report ranked Canada in 25th place, a decade-long slide from our nation’s 4th-place ranking in 2014 to 18th last year. There is a palpable sense that the economy is not recovering, and the divergence in the perception of the direction of the country continues to foster resentment and contempt between age demographics. A competitive environment may be emerging for Pierre Poilievre.
Angus Reid captures this in their poll released this week. While Carney and the Liberals lead the horse race, with strength in Ontario, BC, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, it is highly dependent on voters under low or very low financial pressure. The same poll notes the opposite is true for the Conservatives, and if low- and middle-income households feel a ratcheting of financial pressure, wealthy boomers may not be enough to stave off a blue wave.
Of course, Poilievre’s appearance on JRE can’t be viewed in a vacuum. We can’t forget that Carney is on the cusp of a majority should the Liberals win the three April by-elections. So, while this might be a net positive for the Conservatives, it should be used toward long-term strategic development rather than as a short-term opportunity. The other issue, which is much more daunting, is whether Canadians’ disdain and mistrust of President Trump is too entrenched for voters to give Poilievre a second look and a second chance.
A typical week for the Liberals ended in a not-so-typical week for the Conservatives. We mean that in a good way. Pierre Poilievre may have successfully carried out an effective rebrand in a short period of time that, with the right follow-up execution, could bring the Tories back from the political wilderness toward an elusive victory. What an experience that would be.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.