To the Point for the Week of March 8, 2026
To the Point for the Week of March 8, 2026
The Premier begins to think about his legacy. Very bad news for the Canadian economy proves politics is about perception.
ONTARIO
Ford’s Pursuit of a Legacy
In the 2008 second installment of Christopher Nolan’s epic Batman trilogy, The Dark Knight, at a glitzy dinner, Gotham City District Attorney Harvey Dent tells Bruce Wayne that “you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” It was a warning to Wayne about how the power to affect change as well as public perception could produce the opposite of the intended results if one stays in the fight for too long.
After nearly a decade in power, and with his future ambitions publicly crystallizing, Premier Doug Ford is approaching the natural point in any political career when an elected official begins thinking about their legacy. To be crystal clear: we’re not suggesting the Premier is a villain, nor a hero, and neither are we saying his political demise is near or he should make an exit from politics. While Dent’s line may be too dramatic to be applied to the Premier, it is comparable to a political risk he is facing: the longer he stays in power, the bigger and riskier his desire to see through legacy projects. It is especially risky for a Premier who, over nearly a decade in power, has developed a habit of announcing big initiatives only to back down, backtrack, or reverse course.
As we’ve said in previous editions of To the Point, there are no solutions in politics, just trade-offs. You can’t be everything to everyone all the time. Every political leader is forced to change course eventually. Yet for Premier Ford, the course corrections are both numerous and significant, many directly impacting his central objective of building more housing under the banner of “getting things done.”
The Greenbelt, urban boundary expansion, and Peel Region dissolution were the three most signature reversals in which the Ford government has engaged. Nevertheless, we don’t have to go back as far as 2022/2023 to find examples of this pattern. In our piece from the week of February 15, “Falls Review Fallout”, we highlighted the political buildup that culminated in the appointment of Bob Gale as Niagara Region Chair to see through the Premier’s intent to follow through on amalgamation in Niagara. The grand plans for amalgamating Niagara Region were met with staunch resistance, and expectations were scaled back before Gale’s resignation this week.
One could make a credible argument that the Premier’s aforementioned track record on large initiatives is instilling in him a sense of political urgency, now that the large polling advantage the PCs once comfortably enjoyed is fading. The Premier, it may appear, is seeking to be a builder of big things in Toronto, rather than homes across the province, making big political waves in Toronto over the past two weeks offering clear evidence that legacy considerations are at the front of his mind.
Speaking last week at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada conference held annually at the Metro Toronto Convention Center (MTCC), the Premier bemoaned the outdated facility that, according to the Premier, is partly to blame for smaller cities “getting international conventions over us.” He then laid out an early vision of a “world-class,” “shock-and-awe,” two million square foot facility. Several times larger than the current MTCC, the facility would be a single building, rather than the current fragmented design, with a build out price tag estimated at a few billion dollars, give or take, no biggie. Later, the Premier went even further, suggesting the province was considering proposals to fill in Lake Ontario to situate the new convention centre adjacent to Ontario Place.
Then on Tuesday, the Premier committed to another major infrastructure gambit by telling reporters the province is prepared to “take over” Toronto Billy Bishop Airport to facilitate an expansion of the airport’s runway to allow for the landing of large commercial jets. This means the Premier has officially put expropriation of the airport on the table, essentially removing the City of Toronto from the tripartite agreement that currently bans jets. After some outrage, particularly from Toronto Islanders whom the Premier referred to as squatters, he committed to compensating the city for airport land, lost revenue, infrastructure upgrades, and other changes that are being framed as critical to Toronto’s long-term economic viability.
Make no mistake: these are massive, costly — both in financial resources and political capital — projects that will face enormous barriers, including, but not limited to, environmental reviews, potential legal action from various stakeholders, and regulatory processes that may bury the project in red tape indefinitely. It’s a risk that the Premier appears to be willing to take, that is, if he has the political will to rush them into reality before the next election.
Big, legacy‑shaping projects always come with big risks, especially for a government with Ford’s record of abrupt policy U‑turns. In the months ahead, what will matter less than the Premier’s rhetoric is how transparently these files are developed and how much staying power they have beyond the next press conference. If Doug Ford wants history to remember him as the hero‑builder of Toronto rather than the architect of another round of reversals, these waterfront gambits will be the ones that decide which side of Harvey Dent’s warning he ends up on.
FEDERAL
Reality is Just a Suggestion
Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal Liberals are cementing a perception of invincibility.
Weeks of burning speculation of will he or won’t he call an election for the Spring/Summer were doused on Sunday when the Prime Minister pulled the trigger on three anticipated by-elections in Scarborough Southwest, University–Rosedale, and Terrebonne (QC). The Liberals are a sinch for the two former ridings, and highly, highly competitive in Terrebonne where the outcome in the last federal election came down to one vote. The Prime Minister had positioned his party within arm’s reach of a majority.
By Tuesday, the probability of Prime Minister Mark Carney securing a majority through by-elections went from likely to virtually certain when, seemingly without effort, the Liberals welcomed with open arms yet another floor crosser in Nunavut NDP MP Lori Idlout. The Liberals only need to retain their strong holds in Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale to get to 172 seats in the House. Or maybe not. Liberal House Leader Steven MacKinnon said on his way to cabinet this Thursday that the Liberals are in in talks with more dissatisfied MPs. Two more floor crossers would negate the reliance on by-election victories to give Carney his majority.
Polling not only remains strong for the Liberals, but they manage to continue to inch higher almost every time one is released. The most recent Liaison Strategies poll this week saw their national lead over the Conservatives increase into double digits at fourteen points. The Prime Minister’s approval rating also inched higher. The Liberals don’t just have a polling edge. Their lead is entrenched in double digits.
On the surface, everything around Prime Minister Carney is designed to project calm competence and inevitability. The Prime Minister’s busy international schedule, saturated with various signing ceremonies, especially around trade, continues to fuel his steady-leadership, experienced-economic-manager persona. These optics, in turn, are solidifying the government’s legitimacy, even though Canadians are very sour on floor crossings and don’t like the idea of a majority secured through a series of defections. Yet the same surveys show growing approval for Mark Carney and rising Liberal vote intention even as more Conservatives and New Democrats quietly join his caucus.
This is creating a snowball effect for the Liberals that is supported by research on bandwagon and social poll effects. A 1996 study by Barry Kay, Professor of Political Science at Wilfred Laurier University, looked at whether parties leading in pre-election polls gain extra support simply because they’re ahead. While Kay found that a bandwagon effect was small and inconsistent at the national level, many voters do move toward whoever looks like the winner because polls shape expectations and perceived viability. University of Toronto professor Randy Besco’s “social theory of poll effects” in 2016 (although based on US data) suggests that voters are less likely to back a candidate that polls show as a clear loser because, essentially, people don’t like being on the losing side, especially when they talk about politics with their peers. As we’ve said before, politics is about perception.
And the perception of the Prime Minister as a steady economic manager is rising precisely as the Canadian economy is showing worrying signs. This week alone saw brutal figures around manufacturing, jobs and the nation’s trade deficit. Manufacturing sales fell 3.0% in January to $68.7 billion, the lowest level since last spring, with real output down even more sharply and declines across more than half of all subsectors, including autos and machinery. Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February, despite economists’ predictions of a gain of 10,000, with unemployment climbing to 6.7%. Even worse, adjusted for workers who have stopped looking for work, youth unemployment is at a 35-year high. Full-time and private sector work saw the most losses. Canada’s trade deficit widened to roughly $3.6 billion after exports dropped nearly 5% in a single month, including a more than 20% plunge in motor-vehicle shipments to the lowest level in years. None of this looks like the backdrop of a booming economy, yet politically, the government is benefiting from the opposite impression.
The gap between the political narrative and the economic data is getting wider, but it hasn’t mattered yet. So long as the government looks steady and in control, voters seem willing to go along with it. In this moment, reality isn’t driving the story. It’s just a suggestion.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
ABOUT TO THE POINT
To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.