A Special To the Point — Week of March 16, 2025
A Special To the Point — Week of March 16, 2025,
FEDERAL ELECTION PREVIEW
Well, it looks like it’s finally happening. Multiple news outlets reported this week that Prime Minister Mark Carney will call an election tomorrow, setting the stage for what promises to be a heated and intense campaign. Think Turner vs. Mulroney in 1988—but on steroids. That election was a fiercely contested battle over the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, with Brian Mulroney championing the deal against passionate opposition from Liberal leader John Turner, who famously accused Mulroney of selling out Canada during a televised debate that briefly swung public opinion—but ultimately failed to prevent a Conservative majority.
Now add in a dash of 1979, when Joe Clark squared off against Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau in a deadlocked race that produced a short-lived minority for Clark. Toss in a side of 2004, when Martin and Harper went head-to-head in a race that saw less than a 0.5% difference between the Liberals and the newly formed Conservative Party. Martin squeaked out a minority win.
Whisk these historical precedents together with today's political landscape, and you’ve got yourself one hell of a contest.
For all the similarities the current situation shares with past elections, there are several interesting elements that will make this election one for the history books. For this special edition of To the Point we are pleased provide our takes on some of the key factors that will shape this campaign that is – at this moment – essentially a toss-up.
CAN CARNEY HANDLE THE SCRUTINY?
Prime Minister Carney is about to embark on his second official political campaign—the first being his successful Liberal leadership run, which wrapped up just two weeks ago. That race was smooth sailing. A general election? A different beast.
He’s already feeling the pressure. Questions have emerged about his time at Brookfield Capital—namely, the decision to move the HQ to New York, the company’s overseas investments in energy infrastructure, and real or perceived conflicts of interest around his assets. Carney had some tense exchanges with reporters this week. It wasn’t a good look.
And the election hasn’t even started. If he continues to act snarky or evasive with the press, the shine may come off quickly. Carney’s business experience might be his biggest asset, but his political inexperience could be his Achilles’ heel.
YES, THIS IS STILL A CARBON TAX ELECTION
For months, pundits have mocked Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre for insisting the carbon tax will be a major election issue. Many claimed it was dead on arrival after the Prime Minister signed an Order in Council ending the consumer carbon tax. They were wrong.
Carney has kept the issue alive by defending the industrial carbon tax. On a recent trip to Europe, he argued it’s essential for trade with the UK, EU, and Asia. That’s the first time this justification has really been used—it was all about the climate, remember?
Carney has even floated increasing the industrial carbon tax—potentially negating any savings from cancelling the consumer one, since increased costs could be passed down. And while the consumer carbon tax was ended by Order in Council, the legislation that created it still exists—a key criticism from Poilievre.
Carney is also musing about a European-style Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—essentially a tariff on imports from countries without a carbon price. While it’s marketed as levelling the playing field, it would ultimately raise prices on imported goods.
Carney will have to explain how his industrial carbon tax is different from the one he just axed—and how it won’t raise your grocery bill. But as they say in politics: if you’re explaining, you’re losing.
THE GENERATIONAL DIVIDE
A striking feature of this election is the widening generational divide in voting intentions. The Conservatives dominate among voters aged 18–34 and 35–49. The Liberals lead among Canadians aged 50–64 and 65+.
This wasn’t always the case. In 2021, the opposite was true—the Conservatives had the over-55 crowd, while Liberals and the NDP split the under-35 vote.
What changed? Political memory and media habits. Younger voters live on TikTok, X, and podcasts—where right-wing ideas are gaining traction as the new counterculture. Older Canadians stick to TV, radio, and newspapers, which reinforce more familiar narratives.
Boomers and Gen Xers remember Trudeau Sr., the ‘90s deficit battles, and a more unified Canada. They favour stability. Millennials and Gen Z? They’ve only known a post-9/11, globalized world—with flat wages and rising costs. They’re looking for disruption, not nostalgia.
Carney’s appeal is rooted in his calm, statesmanlike presence. Poilievre wins points with younger Canadians for naming their economic frustrations—and for his unapologetically bold style. Watch how the parties try to connect: Liberals through traditional media; Conservatives through X and TikTok.
THE TRUMP CARD
The biggest wild card in this campaign? Donald Trump.
Not because the election will hinge on “who can best deal with Trump”—though that may become a subplot. The real reason: Trump’s ability to post something online that causes immediate chaos.
This week, Trump criticized Poilievre for being “nasty” and said it might be easier to work with the Liberals. He doubled down the next day, saying a Liberal win would be “an advantage for the United States.”
Is Trump endorsing Carney? Or is he hinting that Carney would be easier to push around? Either way, Trump’s shadow will loom large. His unpredictability could influence voter perceptions and may even spark claims of foreign interference—depending on how things shake out.
THIS CAMPAIGN WILL MATTER
Recent elections have felt like foregone conclusions. In 2015, 2019, and 2021, Liberal victories were expected. Same for Ontario in 2018, 2022, and 2025. The old saying “campaigns matter” didn’t really hold.
But this time? The campaign will absolutely matter.
Where leaders travel, what they announce, how well they stick to message—it will all count. The party best able to identify its supporters and get them to the polls (a.k.a. GOTV) will win. On that front, the Conservatives may have a slight edge.
Debates will also play a critical role. Carney is the novice. Poilievre is the veteran. Their showdowns could sway swing voters. Again, we think the Conservatives have the advantage here.
CANADA AT A CROSSROADS: A VOTE TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The election kicks off Sunday—and it’s a toss-up.
Carney’s experience versus Poilievre’s energy. The generational divide. Trump’s unpredictable commentary. And yes, still, the carbon tax.
Every stop, every ad, every line in a debate could shift the outcome. The Conservatives might have the upper hand in ground game and debates—but Carney’s steady hand could prevail if the Liberals get their vote out.
It’s close. It could go either way.
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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
