To the Point for the Week of March 23, 2025
To the Point for the Week of March 23, 2025
One week down, another full four weeks left in the federal election. That’s a long, long time in politics. Anything can happen between now and April 28th that could completely upend the election.
There are signs, however, that this election is a foregone conclusion. With the first week in the books, we wanted to provide some insights for our clients to help make sense of the election so far. We also highlight a wild election promise.
“YOU GOT TO GET ON THE F$@%ING BALLOT QUESTION”
From a 30,000-foot view, one could make the case that the Conservative campaign got off to a strong start this week. Poilievre drew a crowd of approximately 3,500 people at his campaign launch in Markham, while the Prime Minister drew about two hundred at his launch in Halifax, NS. The Tories have drawn daily crowd sizes in the thousands, so much so that they are having to turn away people due to capacity issues. It’s a good problem to have.
The Tories also flooded the zone with various campaign promises to shift focus away from President Trump and turn it towards other critical issues, announcing some hefty campaign promises, including a 15% income tax cut, supply side driven housing policy, and tough-on-crime criminal justice reform. The Tories are hitting all the right notes to firm up their base of support.
As expected, the Conservatives are setting their sights squarely on Mark Carney, hoping that once voters learn more about the skeletons in his closet, they will think twice about marking the X by his name. Everything from questionable tax planning while at Brookfield Asset Management, plagiarism accusations, and his close relationship and ties to the Chinese Communist Party, the Conservatives had plenty of ammunition with which to go after Carney.
But has it made an impact? If shifts in public polling are a barometer on whether his message, promises and attacks are cutting through the noise, then the answer is no. . The Conservatives continue to trail the Liberals anywhere from 6-10 points, depending on the polling outfit. This begs the question, with only a week into the campaign, is it time to pivot?
Kory Teneycke, architect of Premier Doug Ford’s three majority victories, seems to strongly believe it’s time to pivot before it’s too late. Speaking as part of a political panel at the Empire Club of Canada event on Thursday night, “Politics, patriotism and polling,” Teneycke gave a stern warning to the Conservatives, insisting that they must “get on the f$@%ing ballot question.” Teneycke suggests the Tories are not appealing to the thing that is driving voters, namely their hatred for President Trump. As a qualifier, he noted that the Tories continue to lead on issues that are important to a large subset of the population, but those voters 55+ are driving the election right now. He makes it very clear that if the Tories do not pivot to framing a ballot question around the issues they dominate, or tailor their strategy towards the giant orange ballot question, then they are toast.
Assuming the polls are correct, the Conservatives are running out of runway to pivot. The election length was deliberately set to be short and sweet. Pierre Poilievre and the Tories will need to decide whether they want to fight an uphill battle in setting the ballot question in their favour or fall in line with the other campaigns and go hard after President Donald Trump. Poilievre’s top advisor, Jenny Byrne, and the Conservative war room will need to decide this weekend.
CAREFUL, ICARUS
Despite a litany of negative stories this week, Mark Carney managed to maintain his position as the perceived front runner–again, if you assume the polls are correct. He is still the most trusted candidate to deal with President Trump and is perceived as being the most Prime Ministerial. The president keeps handing Carney the gift of his erratic economic policy making, giving the Prime Minister opportunity after opportunity to go before the Canadian people in official capacity and speak to the seriousness of the moment. Carney is flying high with confidence, even as we’ve seen glimpses of his political inexperience. But are Carney and the Liberals flying too close to the sun?
The biggest risk to Carney and the Liberals is whether they’ve hit a ceiling of support, in which case the only way to go is down. Mark Carney’s Liberals are riding a wave—polls this week (Ipsos, Research Co.) show them at 41–42%, flirting with majority territory as April 28th looms. But hold the victory lap: this leadership honeymoon is showing serious cracks that could cap the Liberal surge. Carney’s personal vulnerabilities are stacking up fast. He snapped at CBC’s Rosemary Barton with a prickly “look inside yourself” when grilled on his blind trust, barred fishermen from a rally, and keeps dodging questions about his Brookfield ties with a vagueness that screams Bay Street elitism. Toss in accusations of policy plagiarism from the Conservatives and flip-flops on his record, and Carney’s looking more like a political greenhorn than the economic saviour he’s billed as. The Liberal base might be on board for now, but Angus Reid data reveals their support is shaky—only 83% of 2021 Liberal voters are staying put, and the 24% of NDP defectors could jump ship if Carney’s centrist moves, like ditching the carbon tax, leave them feeling unrepresented.
Then there’s the Trump factor, which just got messier with his Truth Social post (Friday, March 28, 2025, just to be exact in these fluid times), crowing about an “extremely productive” call with Carney and a planned post-election meeting. Carney’s been selling himself as the leader who’ll stand up to Trump the bully—pushing retaliation against tariffs and a $2-billion auto sector fund to blunt the trade war’s sting—but Trump’s chummy tone blows a hole in that narrative. Canadians, already on edge over Trump’s 25% steel tariffs and his April 2nd threats, want a fighter, not a friend to the guy musing about annexation (per The Guardian). Ian Bremmer’s take in GZERO Media this week doesn’t help, predicting that post-election, Canada will “fold” and align with the U.S. under pressure, a view that paints Carney’s tough talk as hollow posturing. That kind of skepticism could hit hard in Quebec, where the Bloc is waiting to pounce on any whiff of compromised sovereignty, and among progressives who loathe Trump’s shadow. Carney’s support might have peaked,and if the Conservatives or NDP seize on this, that peak could turn into a perilous slide.
THE COMMIES ARE COMING FOR YOUR CAPITAL GAINS
The Communist Party of Canada rolled out their election campaign this week with a platform that’s less “people’s agenda” and more fever dream of a Soviet time capsule,proposing to tax 100% of capital gains, because apparently the invisible hand of the market needs a very visible slap. They’re also itching to double the corporate tax rate to 76%, slash the work week to 32 hours, and bump the minimum wage to $25 an hour, all while pulling Canada out of NATO, gutting the defence budget by 75%, and giving the RCMP and CSIS the pink slip,presumably to free up funds for more “fresh cut flowers” in factories, as their historical muse Dorise Nielsen once gushed about Stalinist Russia. It’s a bold pitch from a party that snagged a whopping 4,700 votes in 2021, though with their track record of MPs like Fred Rose (a literal Soviet spy) and Nielsen (who defected to Maoist China after swooning over Moscow’s children’s theatre), you have to wonder if their real goal is less about winning seats and more about winning a spot in the history books under “wildest election ideas ever”.
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
