To the Point: For the Week of November 24th, 2024
To the Point, a weekly news and analysis roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group, cuts through the noise and delivers essential federal, provincial, and municipal stories right to your inbox.
This week, President-elect Trump’s tariff threats dominated the news cycle this week. Ford leads the charge at the Council of the Federation and makes legislative moves. Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca issues call to action on development charges and Markham Mayor Scarpitti responds. Trudeau faces his biggest tests as the nation’s leader on tariffs and immigration.
PROVINCIAL
Ford Responds to Tariffs
Premier Ford was very busy this week juggling two major federal issues. First, Ford had strong words for President-elect Donald Trump following his threats to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods if the federal government fails to secure the US/Canada border. “We have no choice. We have to retaliate,” Ford said during a snap press conference on Tuesday, going on to describe the threats as “unfair” and “insulting”. Ford also worked to rally his fellow Premiers at the Council of the Federation, penning a letter to the Prime Minister insisting he meet with them to discuss what Ottawa’s plans are to respond. The Prime Minister acquiesced the meeting request and met with Premiers on Wednesday evening. Coming out of the meeting, the Premier was cautiously optimistic but firm in the position that the federal government must take immediate action to secure the border from illegal immigration and trafficking of guns and drugs into the US.
The Premier appeared resolute in standing up for Ontario’s interests but he should be advised to be cautious with his messaging. One must appreciate Trump’s style to best understand how to respond to his threats. Insisting on retaliation will only heighten tensions. We believe the Premier’s statement following the meeting with Trudeau was excellent, striking the right balance between firmness and making clear the expectations on what the federal government’s next steps must be. We also commend Ford’s move to rally Premiers as the best course of action. A critical mass of pressure on the Prime Minister to address the concerns of Trump is the only way to force Trudeau to respond quickly.
The Vote-Buying Continues!
On the heels of the federal government’s GST “holiday,” Premier Ford announced Ontario will play ball and not collect the provincial sales tax on the items covered under the plan. Forgoing the provincial sales tax is expected to cost provincial coffers approximately $1B. Ford’s support of the GST holiday comes weeks after the Premier announced plans to dish out $200 cheques to Ontario residents.
We were not surprised Ford moved to support the GST holiday. It was a very easy calculation for PC Party advisors who saw no upside of igniting a conflict between the federal and provincial governments. The only question remains is what does Premier Ford get in return for playing ball, and will he be able to leverage that in the next provincial election?
Province Pushes Ahead with Legislation
With the end of the fall legislative session fewer than two weeks away, Premier Ford and the Ontario PCs will be busy moving ahead with select pieces of legislation. First, the government passed Bill 212 Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act that affords the government the power to remove bike lanes along three major Toronto streets. It also allows the construction of Highway 413 to proceed prior to completing Indigenous consultation or environmental assessments. Second, the Province is seeking to quickly move forward with Bill 223. The Safer Streets, Stronger Communities Act is the criminal justice bill highlighted in a previous issue of To the Point that includes a prohibition against drug-injection sites located 200 meters or less from a school, daycare or family centre. Lastly, the government introduced on Bill 229 Working for Workers Six Act on Wednesday with various worker focused measures.
The expectation is that the PCs will retain power in Ontario after the Spring election. However, the governing party has glaring vulnerabilities on the housing and healthcare files that could reduce the size of their victory. To counteract this, the PCs must protect and nurture the perception they are still the party of getting things done, especially on issues with strong public support like bike lane removal and prohibitions on drug-injection sites. Moving swiftly on the abovementioned legislation before the Christmas break allows Ford and his caucus to boast about their legislative accomplishments with voters over the break.
Province Announces Funding to Enable the Construction of More Homes
On Thursday, Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma announced the government will invest up to $1B in loans for municipalities through the Housing-Enabling Water Infrastructure (HEWI) program stream. Eligible municipalities will be able to apply for loans to construct, rehabilitate and expand critical drinking, waste and storm water infrastructure projects that will help spur the construction of new homes. Municipalities can benefit from flexible borrowing options, including deferred interest payments during the construction phase, extended debenture repayment terms of up to 40 years, customizable repayment schedules, and reduced administrative costs.
The ONpoint Team was pleased with the government’s response to our advocacy on behalf of our development clients. The government heard our clients’ longstanding industry concern of a lack of servicing in municipalities, and we applaud the move to support local governments with access to infrastructure capital. Our development clients will now be unencumbered to frontend these costs. The ball is now in the court of municipalities to secure the necessary funds. The ONpoint team is hopeful this initiative will be a bridge towards a utility model for storm and wastewater servicing.
MUNICIPAL
Del Duca’s DC Double Down
Following up on drastic reductions to the City of Vaughan’s development charges, Mayor Steven Del Duca penned an op-ed in the Toronto Star on Monday calling on other municipalities to follow suit. Del Duca made his piece personal, telling the story of how he and his family landed their forever home, as well as acknowledging that his experience is well out of reach for younger generations. Del Duca went on to say on X that he recognizes lowering development charges is not the sole solution, but a critical step toward restoring the dreams of ownership for young Canadians.
We are wondering if Mayor Del Duca reads our weekly To the Point newsletter. In last week’s edition, we encouraged the Mayor to be a champion for this cause and call on other municipal leaders to take similar action on development charges. Del Duca was met with opposition, however, from Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti who issued a statement in direct response to the op-ed. Scarpitti argued that if Markham followed Vaughan’s lead, the municipality may be forced to increase property taxes, make trade-offs on critical infrastructure needs, or defer action to the future to make up for the potential loss of $91.6M in revenue each year. Scarpitti went on to say that municipalities need infrastructure support, whether in the form of new revenue tools or funding from the provincial government. The ONpoint team is very encouraged by Del Duca’s letter as well as Scarpitti’s response because we believe it is critical to have these open debates regarding housing solutions. We look forward to analyzing Markham and Vaughan’s progress towards their respective housing objectives to see which course of action has yielded better results.
FEDERAL
Trump’s Tough Tariff Talk
On Monday evening, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to threaten both Canada and Mexico with a 25% tariff on all imported goods into the United States if both countries did not take serious steps to stop illegal immigration, guns and drugs from entering the United States through Canada. The Prime Minister spoke to President Trump later that evening, describing the conversation as “a good call.” Other political leaders weren’t so hopeful, like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who demanded the Prime Minister take concrete action on the border, an issue that has long been festering. Premier Ford was a leading voice among Premiers who called for tougher measures at the border.
The Prime Minister faces the biggest test at the worst possible time. He is deeply unpopular and has no political capital. The Trudeau government appeared unprepared, almost like the government didn’t anticipate it, at least not this soon. Perhaps the feds thought it had time to prepare before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, but how could it not learn from Trump’s first term that this could potentially be one of his first moves as the 47th President? Trudeau should have been prepared with contingencies for various scenarios in anticipation of Trump’s actions on tariffs. The ONpoint team strongly believes that Trudeau’s lack of preparedness signals a crisis in both confidence and competence in the federal government, one that could only be solved by an election.
Gone is the National Consensus on Immigration
Immigration was the second biggest federal story this week as Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced more immigration policy changes are forthcoming as he appeared before the Standing Committee on Immigration. Miller’s signal for more changes comes in the wake of the fed’s plan to cut the number of admitted permanent residents as well as action on temporary foreign workers. Miller also admitted that the refugee and asylum system is broken as StatsCan’s released data showing 250,000 asylum claimants remain in Canada waiting for decisions, 70% of whom filed claims in the last year. Miller also stated that he expects the approximately 5 million temporary resident permit holders will voluntarily leave Canada as their permits are set to expire in late 2025. When pressed on how the government will ensure individuals leave, the Minister responded saying “there are many measures within our department to monitor these things.” To add insult to injury, former Chief of Staff to Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Peter Wilkinson, voiced deep concerns over the government’s ability to respond to an expected surge of illegal immigrants crossing into Canada from the United States after Trump executes his mass deportation order. Wilkinson was quoted saying, “We have to stop people from coming in. We will be faced with something that as Canadians, that we never really faced before.”
During the 2015 federal election debate, Trudeau gave an impassioned defense of immigration that foreshadowed his famous tweet two years later where he declared “To those fleeing persecution terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength. #WelcometoCanada.” The tweet ushered seven years of immigration policy failures that has led to confusion, frustration, and resentment among Canadians as well as legal immigrants. Internal emails following the 2017 tweet revealed there was confusion among Canadian immigration officials over how to respond to the influx of inquiries on how to claim refugee status in Canada. Fast forward seven years later, the government can’t account for approximately half a million illegal immigrants in the country and pays an enormous amount of taxpayer money to feed, shelter and provide healthcare to asylum seekers. Canadians are very compassionate and welcoming, but the government mistook that for an embrace of unfettered immigration. The consequences of these failures have led to declining GDP per capita and the breakdown of social cohesion in Canadian society, prompting many Canadians to rethink the country’s immigration consensus. In fact, it was reported this week that internal government research by the Department of Immigration found that nearly half (47%) of Canadians believe too many immigrants are coming to Canada. Another 42% of Canadians agreed that immigration is causing the country to change in unlikable ways. We maintain the expectation that crime, immigration, and the economy will push out healthcare and the environment/climate change as the top three issues for Canadians over the next year.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
PROVINCIAL
The ONpoint team’s attention will be mostly focused on how Premier Ford will continue to navigate the tariff threat and see what additional action he will take to put pressure on the feds. As well, we have been tracking signals over the last two weeks that has our team anticipating legislation that will shake up services in Peel Region.
MUNICIPAL
Development charges are expected to continue to be a hot topic next week. Steven Del Duca has set the bar for his fellow Mayors, so we’ll see how others respond, if at all. As well, we will monitor the municipal response to province’s HEWI stream announcement.
FEDERAL
Immigration and tariffs; these will continue to be the biggest issues next week, with a sprinkle of fallout following StatsCan’s release of third quarter GDP data earlier this afternoon that was not good. The GST holiday is already in the rearview mirror, and maybe the Liberals now want it that way.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
