To the Point: For the Week of November 18th, 2024
To the Point, a weekly news and analysis roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group, cuts through the noise and delivers essential provincial, municipal, federal and international stories right to your inbox.
Last week, Bonne Crombie and Doug Ford go tit-for-tat criminal justice, housing starts fall off a cliff in Ontario, and Ford looks to play his Trump card. Potential replacements for the York Region Chair vacancy are emerging, Marit Stiles adds a familiar big city face to her team, and moves on development charges topped municipal news. The Prime Minister attempted to course correct on two major policy fronts as ill-timed financial stories overshadowed his announcements. President Trump nominates his US ambassador to Canada and geopolitical tensions rise as the war in Ukraine crosses a proverbial Rubicon.
PROVINCIAL
PCs and Liberals Talk Tough on Crime
As we said in last week’s To the Point, an early election in Ontario is all but assured and the most recent signal came from both team blue and red reciprocating promises and policies on criminal justice. First, Premier Ford and Solicitor General Michael Kerzner announced the introduction of the Safer Streets, Stronger Communities Act that the PCs say will crackdown on careless and impaired driving, car theft, tackle illegal cannabis sales, and enhance tools to track sex offenders. Speaking before the Police Association of Ontario on Thursday morning, Crombie committed to providing more resources to law enforcement if elected, saying “I am going to fund the police.” Without specifying an exact amount, Crombie said the funding would go toward crime fighting technology, training, as well as recruitment and retention of officers. She attacked Ford for what she described as his “indifference and neglect” on crime and attempted to frame herself as the law-and-order candidate.
The ONpoint team credits both Crombie and Ford for recognizing crime has gotten out of control, but both fail to more aggressively demand change at the federal level. The PCs created an entire new Ministry of Auto Theft and Bail Reform led by MPP Graham McGregor, while symbolically a good thing, the Minister is relegated to calls for action by the Trudeau Government with little impact. Crombie’s pledge to give more money to police will have little affect if criminals expect to be released shortly after arrest. The longer calls for reform at the federal level go unheeded, the likelier violent crime will escalate as criminals perceive the government as incapable – or worse, unwilling – to stop them. As the ONpoint team often says, the only thing preventing change from occurring is simply political will.
Ford Seeks to Trump Opposition
While the spectre of the Trump Presidency continues to loom large over the province, the Ontario PCs are hoping to turn that into a net positive for the Premier’s re-election chances. According to PC operatives, voters perceive the Premier as having an assured command of the US-Ontario economic issues, so the Party’s plan is to lean into a Trump presidency rather than treat it as a political liability. Premier Ford represents “stability, competence and someone experienced in dealing with Trump in order to protect jobs in Ontario,” shared one PC insider. The Premier exemplified his understanding of the issues of prime interest to the Trump administration with his tough talk on Mexico’s trade practices. Ford continued with that position last week insisting he has the support of his provincial counterparts for Canada to formalize a bilateral trade agreement with the United States sans Mexico.
We noted shortly after President Trump’s re-election that the opposition would attempt to connect Premier Ford to Trump’s more controversial characteristics with very little impact, if any at all. Leaning into a Trump presidency is the right call politically. Our team of seasoned consultants believe Premier Ford has demonstrated both confidence and competence in responding to both signals and noise from the Trump transition team. Even federally, a recent Abacus Data poll found that voters see federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as the best leader to deal with Trump. Voters already know who Donald Trump is in 2024 and now know what to expect. Voters also know what to expect from Premier Ford, and the PCs are going to use that to their advantage effectively.
Data Points to Housing Start Crash in Ontario
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) on Monday released housing start data for the month of October. CMHC noted an 8% increase in the annual pace of Canada-wide housing starts in October compared to the previous month. However, housing starts in Ontario have fallen over the last 12 months to pre-2020 levels. Even worse, starts in the Greater Toronto Area were described by TD Economist Rishi Sonhdi as “exceedingly weak” adding that the trend will likely continue into 2025. News only got worse later in the week as the province’s Financial Accountability Office stated that housing starts in Ontario were down 16.9% in the latest quarter compared to the same time last year. For detached homes, Ontario is on pace for the lowest level of starts dating back to 1955, and to hit 1.5M homes by 2031, it would need to exceed its 2021 building pace by 74%. The province would also need to hit quarterly record highs – in every quarter – from now until 2031.
Canadian Economist Mike P. Moffat was more pessimistic about the news, posting on X “starts in Ontario are collapsing” and that “rising development charges and increased red tape at both the provincial and municipal levels is killing homebuilding in Ontario.” The news presents an Achilles heel for the Ford government. Promising to build 1.5M homes by 2031 during the 2018 election, the Ford government is far off course from achieving that ambitious objective. The ONpoint team sees the disappointments on this file largely due to personnel decisions around the cabinet table. With the exit of Housing Minister Steve Clark, Premier Ford named Markham-Stouffville MPP Paul Calandra as his replacement who has been trying to put the government back on track. The Premier had the opportunity to execute a summer reset by replacing Minister Calandra but was reluctant to pull the trigger, even as it was widely believed the Premier was dissatisfied with his performance in the portfolio. Crombie had an opportunity for an easy layup to hit the PCs where it hurts, but we were shocked to see Crombie didn’t come out swinging against Ford and the PCs harder on this file.
MUNICIPAL
Perhaps some municipal leaders follow economist Mike Moffatt on X and are beginning to heed his words. The City of Vaughan announced last week significant reductions in development charges. Former Ontario Liberal Cabinet Minister and current Mayor of Vaughan – Steven Del Duca – lead the charge at council to reduce all new home development charges to 2018 levels. “Development charges have become an unfair tax burden on homebuyers,” Del Duca said. The move drew praise from the Building Industry and Land Development Association as well as Housing Minister Paul Calandra.
We commend Mayor Del Duca and the City of Vaughan for demonstrating courage and leadership on development charges, showing that creating the conditions for more housing is a matter of political will. Del Duca can become a housing champion at the municipal level and should leverage his political experience to lobby other municipalities to follow suit. He may find an ally in Premier Ford who has previously noted that development charges account for approximately 25% of the cost of a new home. Detractors will question how municipalities will make up the revenue elsewhere.
ON NDP Hire Familiar Face of Toronto Politics
While Ford and Crombie exchanged barbs on criminal justice, the Ontario NDP added some municipal expertise to their team by hiring former Toronto Mayor David Miller as special adviser to Leader Marit Stiles. Miller’s role on the team will be focused on municipal policy, specifically tasked with holding “open consultations” with elected officials towards creating a “new deal” for municipalities. Miller will present his findings to Stiles and advise her on municipal governance policies for the party’s election platform.
It is unclear what value David Miller will deliver to the NDP. Miller’s record as Mayor was mixed at best, with his key accomplishments being environmental initiatives like waste diversion programs and establishing the office of the integrity commissioner to oversee the newly established lobbyist registry. Miller’s perceived failures largely centred around financial mismanagement, resulting in structural deficits that jeopardized the long-term financial health of the City. His tenure was also plagued by labour issues, specifically the 2009 garbage strike. We believe Miller’s consultations with municipal leaders is political theatre and that the results of those discussions are largely pre-determined. We expect Miller to present a plan that gives more powers to municipalities.
Chief York Region Chair?
The vacancy in the Chair of York Region has attracted another name for consideration in former York Region Police Chief Eric Jolliffe. Before retiring in 2020, Jolliffe began his policing career in 1979 with the Edmonton Police Service. He returned to Ontario in 1998 to join the York Region Police, rising through the ranks to become Chief in 2010. In 2022, the former Chief was named a senior adviser to Digital Mobility Inc. (DMI), a software solution provider for public safety agencies. Many are speculating that the province will appoint Jolliffee to the role over other names highlighted in previous editions of To the Point. The ONpoint team will continue to keep our ear to the ground for more signals on this front.
FEDERAL
Trudeau Attempts to Revive His Party’s Fortunes
In what may be a first, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged his government’s failures on two critical files: immigration and cost of living. First, the Prime Minister released a YouTube video on Sunday focused on immigration, blaming “bad actors”, such as fake colleges and “big chain corporations”, for exploiting Canada’s immigration system. Trudeau also pledged reduce the number of immigrants coming to Canada each year. Second, the Prime Minister introduced tax relief in the form of a GST/HST holiday across the country on various items like restaurant meals, alcoholic beverages, as well as children’s toys and clothing. The Prime Minister also took a page from Premier Ford’s playbook by offering a $250 rebate to individuals who earn $150,000 or less. Both announcements were widely panned on X.
A course correction on these issues months ago would’ve demonstrated that the Prime Minister was listening to the concerns of Canadians, but now are perceived as haphazard manoeuvres to stay in power. The ONpoint team strongly believes these announcements will have very limited impact on Liberals’ electoral fortunes. We also expect these issues to persist and worsen. Trudeau has not indicated any preparation for the expected influx of illegal immigrants fleeing the United States, and action Immigration Minister Marc Miller committed to taking on limiting foreign student participation in the workforce will not proceed. The cost-of-living relief is designed to be short lived, expiring after Valentines Day. Furthermore, the carbon tax will go up again in April by 19%, not to mention those living in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, will also pay the new clean fuel standard, considered to be a second carbon tax, starting on January 1st. We advise our clients to be prepared for continued economic challenges in the coming months.
Federal Financial Follies
Pivoting on two major policy fronts was not enough to overshadow some bad government finance stories last week. First, European EV battery manufacturer Northvolt filed for bankruptcy, despite the federal and Quebec governments’ total combined 2023 investment of $3B in the company to manufacture EV batteries in Quebec. Second, it was revealed by Blacklock’s Reporter that the federal government oversaw over a 100% increase in the number of six-figure managers working in the federal government, all part of an 8% increase in public sector payroll for the first five months of FY24-25 alone. Lastly, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office indicated that the Trudeau government blew past its own self-imposed “fiscal guardrail” and is anticipated to have a $4.6B deficit in 2023-2024.
It is difficult to find the right cliché to describe the federal government on public finances. The federal government has proven to be terrible at picking winners and losers to support with taxpayer “investments.” Funding in the EV space especially appears to have been a waste as both Volkswagen and Stellantis look at plant closures and layoffs. The feds can’t seem to stop hiring public servants and whatever measures of restraint are placed upon them are discarded as they become politically inconvenient. For example, the GST holiday may cost upwards of $10B. The only saving grace now could be the gridlock in Parliament that is holding up spending. The next 12 months are going to be particularly rocky for the Canadian economy and political stability in Canada.
Strong Eagle Man Resigning Under a Cloud
Embattled federal Minister Randy Boissonnault – who once referred to himself as Strong Eagle Man – resigned from cabinet last week after he faced intense scrutiny for his co-ownership of Global Health Imports, a company that received government contracts while claiming to be Indigenous owned. Making matters worse, it was uncovered that Boissonnault may have also misrepresented his own Indigenous heritage as a “non-status adopted Cree.”
Boissonnault’s resignation is indicative of a conflict-of-interest problem inside the Trudeau government. Consider that Trudeau’s Environment Minister, Steven Guilbeault, also faced scrutiny for his business connections that received funding through Sustainable Development Technology Canada as well as other business interests tied to the Chinese Communist Party. LifeLabs, a company that employes Treasury Board President Anita Anand’s husband, received massive contracts from the federal government during COVID. Even if the conflicts are perceived, the perception among voters is that corruption is a feature not a bug of this government.
US & INTERNATIONAL
US President Donald Trump continued to appoint people to key positions last week. One notable appointment came in the form of former Michigan congressman and diplomat Pete Hoekstra as US ambassador to Canada. Hoekstra served as Congressman for Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District from 1993-2011. He brings diplomatic experience to the table after serving as US ambassador to the Netherlands during Trump’s first term.
The appointment should be seen as a bright spot for Canada and relief after media reports highlighted some past comments about Canada from Trump’s other prospective appointments. Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly welcomed the new appointment, stating that she looks forward to working with the incoming ambassador on “shared priorities.” In contrast to some of Trump’s other picks, Hoekstra is widely respected in the diplomatic community. Former US ambassador to Canada under Obama, Bruce Heyman, noted Hoekstra’s direct knowledge of and relationships in Canada. Canadians’ apprehension about the incoming administration should breathe a little sigh of relief. Hoekstra’s appointment is a signal that the administration recognizes the critical economic and political relationship the two countries share. Suddenly the threat of crippling tariffs looks less scary.
Ukraine-Russia War Reaches Milestone and Escalate to a New Level
As the world marked 1,000 days since the start of the conflict, President Joe Biden reversed his previous decision barring Ukraine from using US-made weapons to strike inside Russia, which prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to update Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. Biden’s reversal immediately precipitated Ukraine’s direct attack inside Russian territory using US and UK-made missiles for the first time. Russia retaliated using intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Putin later stated the conflict is becoming a “global-war” and that Russia will continue to test its hypersonic missile capabilities he claims cannot be stopped by conventional methods.
The first US Presidential debate between President Biden and President Trump seems like ages ago. President Joe Biden showed clear signs of decline and was widely believe to be unfit to stand for re-election. Despite this, virtually no one since then has bothered to ask the question of whether Biden is fit to continue serving as Commander in Chief. Recent appearances by President Biden only reinforced the public’s perception of the President’s limited mental capacity. If indeed President Biden has diminished mental capacity, how is he making these consequential decisions that affects the lives of millions? Perhaps we should be asking: who is making these decisions to escalate the war? And why do so during Trump’s transition, especially if both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Putin signalled the possibility of peace following Trump’s re-election. We predict the next two months will be exceptionally volatile. It remains to be seen how our own federal government would respond both militarily and economically.
THIS WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
PROVINCIAL
We anticipate provincial-municipal relations will be an active file for Premier Ford. Ford was asked about homeless encampments at a press conference in Hamilton Friday where he reiterated his support for municipalities that are clearing out homeless encampments but stopped short of committing to use the notwithstanding clause. Bike lanes will also be back in the news cycle as municipalities respond to the provincial government’s move to insulate itself from lawsuits if cyclists are injured or killed following the removal of bike lanes.
MUNICIPAL
On the heals of ugly housing construction starts data, we will continue to monitor developments on development charges. Will other municipalities follow Vaughan’s lead? Municipalities are also currently in the process of formalizing their 2025 budgets, so our municipal experts will keep a close eye on what cities and towns are prioritizing going into the New Year.
FEDERAL
We expect immigration, criminal justice and cost of living will continue to be critical issues next week. We will see more details on Trudeau’s pivot on immigration, look out for more cost-of-living initiatives, and see how the Prime Minister responds to the riots in Montreal that broke out last night (while the Prime Minister was enjoying the Taylor Swift concert) as pro-Palestinian marches turned violent.
US/INTERNATIONAL
President Trump signaled last week his intent to revive the Keystone XL pipeline, so our team will pay close attention to how the federal government responds, especially following the introduction of new oil and gas regulations. We also predict the Trump administration’s stance on tariffs against Canada will soften while at the same time warming up to the idea of a bilateral trade agreement excluding Mexico. Our team will also keep an eye on geopolitical developments that could lead to greater global economic and supply chain instability.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
