To the Point: For the Week of December 8th, 2024
To the Point for the Week of December 8, 2024
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The week of December 8th delivered a very busy news cycle. Bonnie Crombie unveils her housing plan, Ford turns up the dial, PCs maintain sizable polling lead, and more candidate nominations. A potential challenger to Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath emerges as property taxes are set to spike. Trump trolls Trudeau as an internal conflict becomes public, and a potential mandate for Poilievre to slash the fed public service.
PROVINCIAL
Crombie Launches Housing Plan
Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario Liberals sought to capture the spotlight this Wednesday when they announced their housing affordability plan, More Homes You Can Afford. The plan has three primary planks, and according to the Liberals, is intended to help first-time home buyers enter the market, allow for seniors to downsize, and make renting a home or apartment more attainable:
Removing the Provincial Land Transfer Tax for Key Groups: Removing the tax will reduce the cost of purchasing a new home for First-time homebuyers, seniors downsizing, and non-profit home builders, saving these groups an average of $13,500.
Replacing Development Charges to Lower Housing Costs: Eliminating development charges on new middle-class housing and introducing the Better Communities Fund to support sustainable municipal growth through provincial investment.
Improving Rental Affordability and Tenant Protections: Introducing fair, phased-in rent control, resolving landlord-tenant disputes within two months, and creating the Rental Emergency Support for Tenants (REST) Fund to help vulnerable renters avoid eviction during financial crises.
On the surface, the proposal is appealing for first-time home buyers. It’s not too radical nor too incremental and aligns nicely with Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca’s moves on development charges. The missing detail, however, is how Crombie intends to improve conditions to exponentially increase housing supply. Moreover, how will municipalities respond? Will the Better Communities Fund be designed to make up for lost municipal revenue after axing development charges? What about those who are trying to upsize from a starter home? Crombie will need to work hard to sell this proposal to both homebuyers and municipalities, the latter of which will be trickier given her tumultuous time as Chair of Ontario Big City Mayors. Nevertheless, her proposal is sure to invite the Ontario PCs and the NDP to offer their own proposals. Rumours are that the Premier will be announcing something in the coming days.
Ford Introduces Legislation to Address Encampments, Ratchets up the Rhetoric
Premier Ford was joined by several mayors yesterday, including Patrick Brown (Brampton), Cam Guthrie (Guelph), Dan Carter (Oshawa), and Drew Dilkens (Windsor) to announce the tabling of Bill 242, Safer Municipalities Act. The anticipated legislation provides additional funding and “enhanced legislative powers” to police and municipalities to clear out homeless encampments. The legislation was precipitated by the explosion of the number of homeless encampments in communities and the calls for legislative support by various Mayors.
Ford also ratcheted up the rhetoric around tariffs this week during his appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch and during remarks following the second meeting between Prime Minister Trudeau and the Council of the Federation. The Premier threatened to retaliate against the Trump administration’s threats, firmly stating the country should be prepared to restrict the export of critical minerals, energy and other consumer products bound to the US.
Ford’s tough stance on encampments has virtually no political downside. People want action, and he has the support of high-profile municipal leaders. The opposition have given no signals they intend to offer alternative solutions on the issue, perhaps an indication they ceded this issue to the PCs.
Ford’s recent rhetoric on tariffs is at odds with some of his fellow Premiers. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s handling of the crisis is perceived as more diplomatic, acknowledging the President’s security grievances by announcing her own border security measures. Quebec Premier Francois Legault spoke with President Trump on the issue in Paris this week and has publicly put the onus on Trudeau to deliver a border solution. Again, Trump respects power, but Premier Ford should avoid isolating himself with Trudeau by being overly antagonistic. While he and the Prime Minister have options with which to respond to Trump’s threats, they risk overplaying their hand, forcing Trump to take more drastic – even permanent – measures. Perhaps the Premier’s advisors are now aware of this risk as Ford issued a lengthy post on X clarifying his position.
Ontario PCs Hold Big Lead, Ford Approval Underwater as Election Looms
Abacus Data released new polling numbers this week with Ford’s PCs (43%) well ahead of Crombie’s Liberals (25%) while Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP trails the Grits by four points (21%). Abacus President, David Coletto, says “now is a good time as any to go [to an election]” and added that the Ontario PCs are “by far the favorite to win.” Coletto did issue a warning to the Tories to not rely on a battered Liberal brand if Justin Trudeau resigns before the next Ontario election. Tim Houston’s huge victory in the recent Nova Scotia election was due in part to the federal Liberals’ drag on their Nova Scotia cousins, but Ford is rumoured to have insisted that the dynamics in Ontario are different compared to the Maritimes.
Although the PCs have vulnerabilities that could worsen by the Spring, Crombie has so far failed to capitalize on them. The looming US/Canada trade war is preventing her from gaining traction, even with some appealing policy proposals. A Trudeau resignation would have no material impact on the election. The Prime Minister has dragged the Liberal brand so far down that a new leader may not be enough to save them from being relegated to third place. Crombie would be wise to continue distancing herself from not just Trudeau but the federal Liberal Party entirely.
Candidate Announcements
Both the PCs and Liberals were busy this week nominating candidates:
Liberal Nominations:
Former Ohio University Professor, Lorna Jean Edmonds, was nominated in Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Island and Rideau Lakes
Roozbeh Farhadi, a financial services professional, was nominated in Richmond Hill
Former Hamilton-Wentorth District School Board Chair Dawn Darko will be candidate for Hamilton Mountain
PC Nominations:
Ottawa City Councillor George Daruze will carry the PC banner in Carleton
Iroquois Falls Mayor Tony Delaurier will run in Timiskaming–Cochrane
So far, the Liberals have not nominated any potential star candidates. Former federal health Minister Jane Philpott was thought to have been a potential get for Crombie’s team, but Premier Ford scooped her to serve as the lead for a new primary care initiative. The PCs have been adding municipal bench strength to their roster over the last few months, nominating Port Colborne Mayor, Bill Steele, and Norfolk County Mayor, Amy Martin. Let’s not forget that former Bay of Quinte Councillor Tyler Allsopp successfully retained the seat previously held by former Energy Minister Todd Smith. We view these newest recruits as a signal that the Premier intends to propose municipal focused policies, specifically around housing, and needs caucus members with municipal experience to sell them on the campaign trail.
MUNICIPAL
Skyrocketing Ontario Property Taxes
Several municipalities, including London, Burlington, Mississauga, Windsor and Hamilton are all set to significantly increase property taxes in 2025. Officials justified the increases by suggesting cost-sharing agreements with the provincial and federal governments to deliver services are outdated. Ontario’s Big City Mayors, the Association of Municipalities of Ontario as well as the Federation of Canadian municipalities are calling on higher levels of government to provide guaranteed funding to support municipalities to avoid future property tax increases.
Perhaps it is time to update the Ontario Municipal Act to allow for municipalities more financial leeway to take on debt to fund infrastructure projects. Alberta, Quebec and British Columbia afford more flexibility for municipalities to build infrastructure and transit projects with varying success, notwithstanding potential long-term fiscal pressures. In the US, cities have leeway to issue bonds, enter public-private partnerships (P3s), or other revenue measures to pay for infrastructure, like in Miami where expressway projects and the PortMiami Tunnel have all been updated or built using these financial tools. Municipal leaders would be wise to advocate for more independence, not dependence, from higher levels of government to deliver services and infrastructure to citizens.
Federal Liberal Rumoured to Challenge Horwath in Hamilton
Although Ontarians will have to wait until October 2026 to cast a ballot in a municipal election, Liberal MP for Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, Chad Collins, is contemplating a return to municipal politics. Collins, who made news two weeks ago for publicly questioning the Prime Minister’s plan to issue $250 cost-of-living rebate cheques, said in an interview with the Hamilton Spectator that running for Hamilton Mayor “is something I thought of over the years.” The MP – who has not confirmed he will stand for re-election in the next federal contest – went on to say that running for Mayor is not at the front of his mind. Before becoming MP in 2021, Collins was a Hamilton City Councillor since 1995.
Collins wouldn’t be the first MP to consider their political future as former NDP MP Daniel Blaikie left federal politics in 2024 to join Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s caucus. It is also expected that former federal transport Minister and current independent MP, Pablo Rodriguez, will take a run at the Quebec Liberal Party leadership after resigning from cabinet and caucus earlier this year. Parm Gill exited the Ontario PCs to join Poilievre’s Conservatives as the candidate in Milton. The ONpoint team is going to keep an eye out for signals from elected officials from all levels of government to see what their political futures hold over the next couple of years.
FEDERAL
Trump Truth Trolls Trudeau
Posting on Truth Social this past Tuesday, President Donald Trump trolled Trudeau as “governor” of America’s “51st state.” Trump’s post comes days after the two met at Mar-a-Lago where the President teased the Prime Minister about becoming a state to avoid a trade deficit with the United States. Trudeau’s cabinet ministers downplayed the remarks and noted that officials are preparing to spend upwards of $1B to activate measures along the US/Canada border. The plan was outlined at the second meeting between Trudeau and the Council of the Federation. Speaking at the Halifax Chamber of Commerce this week, Trudeau warned Americans that the President’s Tariffs will impact the cost of living for Americans adding Canada was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs or cut off the supply of oil, energy and critical minerals like uranium. At the same forum, Trudeau admonished American voters for not electing Vice-President Kamala Harris, suggesting the missed opportunity represents a threat to women’s rights.
The Prime Minister is well within his rights and responsibilities to prepare to defend Canada’s interests should trade talks break down. However, one could say the Prime Minister is speaking out of both sides of his mouth, when in one instance he takes a tough but diplomatic tone with the President and in the other publicly insults the very people who elected Trump to office. It should come as no surprise if Trump pursues pain for Canada as a personal vendetta against the PM. The Prime Minister may have to lay in the bed he made long ago when used the MAGA movement to attack his main political rival. He also made disparaging comments about the President during his impeachment trials and following the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The Prime Minister’s latest dig against the President has spurred intensified calls for his resignation to allow for a new government to repair US/Canada and stave off economic pain for the country. Which makes us wonder: what ever happened to the gaggle of Liberal MPs calling for the Prime Minister to resign?
Finance Fracas
It was reported this week that conflict has arisen between the Minister of Finance’s office and the Prime Ministers Office after Chrystia Freeland announced she would be tabling the government’s Fall (Winter) Economic Statement on Monday, December 16th. The fracas is centred around Freeland’s rumoured opposition to the $250 rebate cheques and GST Holiday that could cost upwards of over $6B. Unnamed sources suggested Freeland is upset the two measures have broken through the $40B deficit “guard rail” the finance minister put in place to rein in spending. Two other rumours spreading throughout Ottawa over the last week are 1) the government’s deficit is upwards of $60B and 2) internal discussions in the PMO signal a green light for even more spending in the next budget. The tensions reached a fever pitch later in the week when it was reported the Prime Minister is again attempting to recruit former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to replace Chrystia Freeland. Other names being floated as potential members of US-Canada Trade Council that is in the works include former Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley, former Toronto Mayor John Tory, former Premier of Nova Scotia Stephen McNeil, and former Ontario Labour Minister Monte McNaughton.
Perhaps the kerfuffle between Finance and PMO is a signal that the cracks in the Liberal caucus are becoming fissures, where internal disputes are spilling over into the public sphere. Chrystia Freeland has always been a name thrown around to potentially replace Trudeau, so Team Freeland maybe leaking the story to frame Freeland as an unwitting participant in Trudeau’s plans. If the Prime Minister is serious about replacing Chrystia Freeland with an unelected Finance Minister, it could be interpreted as Trudeau’s lack of faith in the bench strength of his caucus and opens a pandora’s box of undemocratic norms.
Ministry of Government Efficiency?
Earlier in the week, Policy Options magazine provided an excellent snapshot of how much the federal government’s bureaucracy has grown under the Trudeau government that could precipitate a Ministry of Government Efficiency, should Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister. Consider these highlights:
Canada's federal public service has grown by 43% since Justin Trudeau's government took office in 2015, adding 110,738 employees, as the population grew by 17% over the same period.
The COVID-19 pandemic accounted for about 35,000 new hires.
60,000 new hires (over half the total increase) occurred in six key departments:
Canada Revenue Agency (+19,000; 48% increase).
Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (+6,700; 105% increase).
Employment and Social Development Canada (+18,000; 86% increase).
Fisheries and Oceans (+4,800; 49% increase).
Public Services and Procurement Canada (+6,900; 57% increase).
Department of National Defence (+6,100 civilian employees).
The Privy Council Office (PCO), the Prime Minister’s department, grew by 75% to nearly 1,300 employees, raising concerns about increased centralization of power.
Public service payrolls now stand at $67 billion annually
The abovementioned figures, coupled with the reality that most Canadians are experiencing job insecurity and cost-of-living struggles, is enough of a wake-up call for political leaders to make drastic changes to how the federal bureaucracy operates and delivers value for taxpayers. Also consider that the speed at which artificial intelligence technologies that automate processes and eliminate redundancies are advancing exponentially. More and more tech companies are developing AI solutions to improve operational efficiencies for large organizations. Imagine using AI solutions to address the insane backlog of refugee and asylum seeker claims? We believe Canadians are acutely aware of how the huge increase in the size and scope of the federal government has impacted living standards and expect action to be taken to streamline government to deliver better services, even if it meant people would lose their jobs. The future ability for the federal government – in fact all levels of government – to deliver services depends on it.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
PROVINCIAL
It goes without saying that we’re going to be laser focused on Ford’s next steps and actions in the brewing trade war with the United States. We’re also going be monitoring the municipal fallout from the Premier’s introduction of legislation to clear homeless encampments. How will the courts respond? Will the Premier follow through on his pledge to use Section 33?
MUNICIPAL
As we predicted last week, the province introduced the Peel Transition Implementation Act that, if passed, would transfer various authority over public works services to Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon. We will monitor municipal reaction to the legislation and see if this sets a precedent for future action targeting other regions. The ONpoint team will also be monitoring the Charter challenge by a group of cyclists that claim the province’s law to remove bike lanes infringes on their Charter rights. The reaction of municipalities to Bonnie Crombie’s housing plan will also be on our radar.
FEDERAL
There is no other story more captivating than the trade battle between the US and Canada, so that will be our main federal focus next week. We will watch Freeland’s Fall Economic Statement with great interest and see if the Finance Minister will subsequently hold on to her job. If she gets the Donald Trump Apprentice treatment, we will keep focused on who will have the distinct pleasure of cleaning up the federal government’s balance sheet. A poll released this week also indicated that nearly half of Canadians support mass deportations, while over 65% believe the country has too many immigrants. We’re going to follow that into next week and see what the government’s response may be.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
