To the Point: For the Week of December 15th, 2024
To the Point for the Week of December 15, 2024
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The ONpoint team is pleased to deliver a special edition of To the Point for the week of December 15th, 2024. The resignation of federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has up ended the federal political landscape, creating crisis of political and economic uncertainty for the nation. The Minister’s resignation is the biggest political news story of 2024 and signaled perhaps one of the most tumultuous political moments in our nation’s history. Recognizing the shockwaves her resignation has produced, the ONpoint team elected to make Freeland’s resignation our focus this week, forming the basis of analysis of the key players and where the country goes from here.
FREELAND SET FREE: A RECAP OF EVENTS
Perhaps an omen foreshadowing the week that was about to unfold came in the form of federal Housing Minister Sean Fraser’s resignation from cabinet and his declared intent not to seek re-election. Chaos intensified as Sunday progressed; rumours were flying around everywhere about everything. Journalists and politicos were blowing up the phones of their sources, attempting to verify information suggesting two or more cabinet resignations were imminent.
As we noted in last week’s To the Point, a conflict emerged between the Minister’s office and PMO in the days following the announcement of the GST Holiday and $250 rebate cheques. The Finance Department pegged the cost of the measures as upwards of $6.28B with officials reportedly advising the Prime Minister’s Office that the proposal also made little economic sense. Allegedly, Freeland expressed her deep concerns regarding the proposal, upset that it would force her to blow past her own “fiscal guardrails”, and went as far as to demand the rebate be removed from the fiscal update. Regardless, all signs pointed towards the finance minister being present in the House on Monday to deliver the Fall Economic Statement that was already weeks delayed.
The rumour of a fissure between the two closest political allies in the Liberal caucus proved to be true on Monday when the finance minister dropped a bombshell letter announcing her resignation from cabinet. The letter was scathing and designed to pin the blame for her abrupt departure on the Prime Minister. It came as a shock to the Prime Minister who apparently told Freeland he lost confidence in her as finance minister over Zoom the previous Friday, while expressing his expectation of her to still deliver the FES that would make public a $60B deficit.
It was reported earlier in the day that Minister Francois-Felipe Champagne would deliver the Fall Economic Statement. However, Champagne either didn’t know the finance minister resigned, or that he was on deck to read it, and refused to do so. Confusion reigned as it was not clear who would read the FES in the House, if at all. It was expected newly minted finance minister Dominic Leblanc would take up the difficult task until it was announced later in the day the FES would not be read in Parliament. Instead, copies were distributed to reporters that later confirmed the deficit would be $61.9B.
Pierre Poilievre called on the Prime Minister to resign in remarks outside of the House of Commons on Monday. Singh also spoke to reporters outside the Chamber on Monday calling on the Prime Minister to resign, but stopped short of committing to topple the government in news interviews later in the week. On Friday, Singh reiterated his call for the PM to resign while publicly committing to toppling the Trudeau government in the next legislative session, whenever that may be.
The political pressure on the Prime Minister reached a fever pitch on Monday as speculation ran rampant on the news the Prime Minister convened cabinet to discuss his potential resignation or prorogation of Parliament. The Prime Minister was scheduled to deliver remarks at 2:00 pm EST on Monday but it never materialized. Since then, the Prime Minister gave two defiant speeches to the Liberal Party faithful that have given the impression the Prime Minister intends to try and ride out this political storm. The week concluded with a cabinet shuffle and a potential prorogation of Parliament.
THE FREELAND FALLOUT: AN ANALYSIS OF LEADERSHIP
Ford’s Pivot on Trudeau, Tariffs and Trump
In the wake of Freeland’s cabinet departure, Premier Doug Ford has shifted away from the antagonistic rhetoric he used last week aimed at the incoming Trump administration. It is unclear if the resignation and pivot are directly related, or if the Premier’s team had conceived a change in course late last week after evaluating the backlash reaction to the Premier’s comments. Regardless of whether the resignation was the catalyst, the Premier recognizes the Prime Minister has become politically isolated, leaving a leadership vacuum after failing to publicly speak about the threat of debilitating tariffs and the government’s response in the weeks since meeting with President Trump.
The Premier has stepped up to the plate and filled this void, correctly exchanging the aggressive tough talk for assertiveness of Ontario’s interests and the shared desire to nurture a mutually beneficial economic relationship. His frequent US media appearances have given the Premier political legitimacy and confidence in his leadership to help resolve this economic impasse, regardless of if the catalyst of the tariffs are related to issues under the jurisdiction of the federal government. Consequently, the Premier must do several things. First, he must continue his assertive messaging that signals a desire to avoid a costly trade war through negotiation. Second, work political channels to secure a meeting with President Trump, however difficult that task may prove. Finally, he should extend an olive branch to Premiers Danielle Smith and Francois Legault. Both have staked out their own positions and policies in reaction to the tariff threats that has fractured the “Team Canada” approach for which many have advocated. By forming a united front with his fellow Premiers, Ford can use the Council of the Federation as the political vehicle driving relations with the United States as the Prime Minister is further consumed by domestic political chaos.
Jagmeet Singh-inking the NDP
Jagmeet Singh’s reaction to Freeland’s resignation is the culmination of arguably one of the largest missed political opportunities of any Canadian political party over the last ten years. Thomas Mulcair did his best to maintain the political gains secured by the late Jack Layton, but it proved to be impossible against the Trudeau machine that emerged in 2015, resulting in the party’s return to third party status in the House of Commons. Enter Jagmeet Singh in 2017 with the opportunity to pick up the reigns and nurture a Bernie Sanders style left-wing populist movement focused on the working and middle-classes. However, Singh, like many political leaders on the Left, ignored the signs of brewing populist sentiments and elected to move his party away from its labour movement roots. Like Trudeau’s Liberals, Singh’s NDP embraced wokeism and deliberately ingratiated himself with the most hardened progressive activists. The NDP leader may give lip service to issues of cost-of-living, immigration, and the economy, but fails to gain the broad trust of voters as the leader to deliver relief on these issues. He had multiple opportunities to be a hero and topple the Trudeau government, even if it resulted in a Conservative minority government with an NDP in official opposition, potentially setting up his Party for a future victory.
While on the surface it may appear difficult to decipher exactly what the political cost/benefit calculation is for Singh as he continues to signal his intent to keep the Liberals in power, the actual reason is very easy: money. First, the NDP are simply not in a financial position to fight an effective election, and still carry a $2M balance from their 2021 election campaign debt. Their fundraising apparatus is nowhere close in sophistication and effectiveness as the Tories and Grits and their party’s financial strength shows no signs of improving. The NDP does not want to destroy itself financially to fight for second place currently. Second, it is believed that Singh’s delays are related to a perceived desire to secure a federal pension. By committing to toppling the government during the next legislative session, Jagmeet Singh will have guaranteed his pension at the expense of taxpayers.
Poilievre Plays it Cautiously
The greatest risk to Pierre Poilievre and the Tories this week was potentially appearing cynically opportunistic. The Conservative Party Leader demonstrated discipline and restraint, continuing his calls for a “carbon tax election”, and focused on what the chaos consuming Ottawa meant for everyday Canadians, not the political fortunes of his Party. Juxtapose that with the comments emanating from Liberal MPs decrying the impact the current chaos will have on the Party first and foremost. He also astutely handled questions on whether he desired to or intended to meet President Trump in his capacity as leader of the opposition. Poilievre is right to avoid this political trap to prevent accusations of subverting the government for his own political gain. Instead, he is forcing Trudeau to own his own failures while offering his own approach to the situation should he become Prime Minister.
No doubt Poilievre will have a strong mandate for dramatic change should he be elected Prime Minister. However, he has not laid out how that change will be implemented. Our gauge of the Canadian public is that there is very little desire for incrementalism given the major issues facing the country. Poilievre’s approach to governing should be summed up in three words: Action, action, action. A newly formed Conservative government should dedicate 24/7 sitting of the House of Commons immediately following the election, focused on overturning every policy, regulation and legislation that has resulted in the managed decline of the economy, Canada’s criminal justice and immigration systems, and our social cohesion. For ten years, the Liberals and NDP have run roughshod over the country, with very little obstacles along the way. Politically speaking, the Conservatives should enter government dead set on implementing changes with breakneck speed and engulfing volume to force the opposition to fight a multifront war in the House of Commons.
Trudeau’s Best Impression of Jordan Belfort
Justin Trudeau gave an incredible reenactment – on two occasions this week – of the “I’m not $%*&ing leaving!” scene from the Martin Scorsese hit movie, The Wolf of Wall Street. First at a Liberal fundraiser on Monday evening, then at the Liberal Party annual holiday party on Tuesday night, Trudeau delivered two defiant speeches in front of party faithful signalling his intent to remain as Leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister. Why wouldn’t he? For the last nine years, the Prime Minister developed a belief that he was untouchable. Years of weak Conservative opposition, NDP enablers, and a favourable media environment – to put it nicely – insulated the Prime Minister from accountability and political pressure. In fact, he has yet to give remarks or conduct interviews directly addressing the events that unfolded this week. Even as the nation finds itself in a political crisis of the Prime Minister’s own making, he believes it to be in the best interest of the country to carry on, even as more Liberal MPs publicly call on the him to resign.
To weather this storm, the Prime Minister has made the calculated decision to further concentrate power into his inner Liberal triumvirate: himself, Kate Teldford, and now Dominic Leblanc (formerly Chrystia Freeland). Any remaining naïve belief that cabinet forms policy and makes decisions collaboratively or on consensus should be put to pasture. The government is now in the hands of three people, one of whom is unelected, buttressed by a newly formulated cabinet specifically chosen to continue implementing Justin Trudeau’s policy agenda for the purpose of remaining in power. In fact, the new finance minister signaled this week that the government still has “fiscal room” to withstand Trump’s tariffs, setting up another year (yes, a year) of political and economic uncertainty to the detriment of the country.
The State of the Nation: Where Do We Go from Here?
The events that unfolded in Ottawa this week are a microcosm of the state of the nation: chaos, turmoil, and uncertainty. The managed decline of our country is a very real and palpable feeling for everyday Canadians. The economy is almost certainly in a recession (or fast approaching one), regardless of if Trump imposes tariffs or not. Regular people are experiencing out-of-control crime firsthand, whether you’re the victim of a home invasion, carjacking, or you were a mall patron who happened to witness yet another jewellery store smash-n-grab. The national identify cultivated over decades is unravelling as Canadians’ trust in the systems that determine who should be allowed into our country has significantly diminished, motivating many Canadians to support dramatic mass deportation policy. All of this has resulted in the waning of our national pride, loss of trust in our institutions, and a diminished faith in ourselves as Canadians.
The country stands at a crossroads, facing challenges that call for a profound national revival—a reinvigoration of our shared purpose and aspirations. As our neighbors to the south rally behind the winds of change ushered in by President Trump, Canadians must seize this moment to chart our own course of renewal. A national revival means embracing bold ideas to address the cost of living, economic decline, housing, healthcare, immigration and our national pride. It calls for celebrating our country’s incredible history and its founding values: peace, order, and good government. The next government must not only address the critical issues affecting our standard of living but also foster a collective optimism that transcends regional and political divides. With fresh energy, a renewed sense of purpose and strong leadership, Canada can rise to meet the challenges of our time, positioning itself as a global leader in innovation, sustainability, and freedom. Just as Americans feel the tides of hope, so too can Canadians usher in a new era of national ambition, resilience, and achievement.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
As we prepare to close out the year, our points of Focus naturally shift to what matters most—spending time with our families, cherishing the holiday season, and reflecting on the moments that made 2024 memorable. This being our final newsletter of the year, we want to take a moment to express our heartfelt gratitude to you, our valued clients, for your trust and collaboration. Your continued support inspires us, and we are honored to support your goals and objectives. From all of us at ONpoint Strategy Group, we wish you a joyful and peaceful holiday season filled with warmth, laughter, and love. May 2025 bring new opportunities, success, and happiness to you and your loved ones. See you in the new year!
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
