To the Point: For the Week of January 5th, 2025
To the Point for the Week of January 5, 2025
The political calamity unfolding this week prompted the ONpoint team to prepare an update on where things stand in the race to replace Justin Trudeau. Canadians wonder whether the country has a functioning government as Trudeau hits the US media circuit and cabinet ministers decide their political futures. The Liberal party brass announce the terms of the horse race. Premier Ford continues to fill the void left by Justin Trudeau. We assess all the potential leadership candidates and give our thoughts on whether Canadians will go to the polls this spring. Be sure to share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn.
THE FALL OUT
The shockwaves following Justin Trudeau’s announcement on Monday continue to reverberate across the country, amounting to the most serious political crisis the country has faced this century. And yet, the Prime Minister has not made a public appearance or spoken to Canadian media since his announcement. As Trump continues to bluster about making Canada the 51st state through “economic force”, many Canadians are wondering, now that Parliament is prorogued, what is actually going on with our government?
The growing perception is that the country does not have a functioning government. The President’s persistent needling of our elected officials suggests there has been no line of communication between the two leaders since the Mar-a-Lago dinner. So, what has the Prime Minister been doing this week? First, he issued a statement in response to the President’s comments, saying “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.” Later in the week, the Prime Minister went on a US media tour, first appearing on CNN with Jake Tapper last night, during which he blamed “misinformation” and “disinformation” for his unpopularity and spoke about the trade tensions between the two nations. Trudeau also appeared on MSNBC’s Inside with Jen Psaki where he warned of potential retaliatory tariffs against the US. Perhaps Trudeau is emulating Premier Ford’s media strategy, attempting to bolster his position and image ahead of negotiations. But given his status as a lame duck Prime Minister, and the prevailing sentiment among Trump’s team that Trudeau is not well liked, one has to wonder whether this media tour is a vanity project for the Prime Minister–an attempt to stroke his own ego and repair his personal image. The difference between the Premier’s appearances and the Prime Ministers’ is that the Premier is focused on reminding the administration and the American people that Canada is a critical economic partner, fortifying this messaging with policies and actions that he hopes will dissuade the President from implementing tariffs. During either of his appearances, the Prime Minister did not elaborate on the $1B border plan announced in 2024 or highlight other key areas where both administrations could find common ground.
Adding to the perception that the government is missing in action, it seems key members of cabinet are distracted by their political ambitions. Recall, Dominic Leblanc assured Canadians a billion-dollar plan was in place to secure the border, the most critical sticking point for the Trump team. What happened to that? The reality is it’s difficult to formulate and execute policy at the cabinet level when several key cabinet members are busy assembling their leadership campaigns, calling donors and filling key campaign leadership roles. Cabinet members who don’t have leadership aspirations are either assessing where to stake their support in the hopes of securing another key cabinet post under the forthcoming Prime Minister or whether to seek re-election.
The current leadership vacuum does not bode well for the country, and the Prime Minister could’ve taken political measures to ensure continuity between his tenure and his successor’s. For instance, Trudeau should have made it clear that whomever in cabinet is vying for his job should immediately resign from their portfolio. Trudeau then should have appointed a smaller cabinet of senior Liberals as caretakers to see through the functions of each portfolio in anticipation for the next leader. And now that Minister Dominic Leblanc stated that he will not enter the race, it would have been wise to have named him interim Prime Minister, an experienced and steady hand at the helm to be the face of government to initiate negotiations with President Trump. Leblanc could have carried the Team Canada banner, seeking input and support from the Council of the Federation.
Ford Continues to Demonstrate Stable and Competent Leadership
Of all the political actors in the drama unfolding between the United States and Canada, one leader continues to demonstrate stability, competence, and capability: Premier Doug Ford. As mentioned in previous editions of To the Point, the Premier has filled a leadership vacuum vacated by the Prime Minister. Ford continues to appear regularly on US media, launched a US based ad campaign focused on the US-Canada economic relationship, introduced a border security measure called “Operation Deterrence”, and pitched a “new strategic alliance” with the United States focused on increasing energy exports and an integrated electrical grid.
Sure, the Premier lacks the constitutional authority on matters of international trade but at least the Premier is doing something, anything, to fortify Canada’s position. While the federal government’s $1B+ plan to safeguard the border lacks critical details, Ford is putting in work to signal to the President that the Premiers care deeply about the economic relationship with the United States, regardless of the Prime Minister’s position on the matter. Dueling appearances between the Premier and Prime Minister run the risk of competing narratives and sending mixed signals to the Trump administration.
The Horse Race Takes Shape
Liberal party president Sachit Mehra presented to caucus the rules governing the leadership race as determined by the Liberal Party’s National Executive early on Wednesday. In line with the party's constitution, two committees have been established: the Leadership Expense Committee and the Leadership Vote Committee. These committees will finalize the election's rules and financial framework, with the process expected to be completed by the weekend. Mehra assured MPs that their suggestions, submitted to the party president, will be carefully considered as the committees work to finalize the regulations.
The National Board of Directors announced on Thursday evening that the party will name their new leader on March 9th and require leadership hopefuls to decide their intentions by January 23rd. The buy in for the race is set at $350,000. Initially, the voting rules allowed for virtually anyone, even if you were not a citizen or a permanent resident, to secure a party membership and vote in the race. Voting eligibility prompted many caucus members, and Canadians, to raise concerns around potential foreign interference as a hostile power could organize diasporas to vote for their preferred candidate who will immediately become Prime Minister. The Board tightened these rules, requiring voters to have a party membership by January 27th, be at least 14 years of age and either possess citizenship, permanent residency, or have status under the Indian Act.
In previous leadership races, the entrance fee has been anywhere from $80,000 - $100,000. Now that the party has upped the ante, one would not be faulted for believing the party is not interested in a competition of leadership styles and policy ideas but a coronation of a specific person. When reviewing the slate of potential nominees, one must wonder who could raise enough funds to pay the entrance fee for a shot at becoming Prime Minister. Our assessment is only two candidates fit the bill: Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. Do not be surprised if the race boils down to a head-to-head matchup between these two heavyweights.
Who’s In and Who’s Out?
Dominic Leblanc, currently holding two ministerial portfolios, has made it clear he will not seek the leadership. It came as a surprise to many observers who viewed Leblanc, an elder statesmen and old guard of the party, as the only candidate capable of mounting an enormous comeback against the Tories. Leblanc issued a statement on X stating his focus is on addressing the threats posed by Trump’s tariffs rather than fight for the leadership. Leblanc is very well respected in caucus. Many MPs, such as Judy Sgro, are trying to convince Leblanc to reconsider.
Leblanc would have made a solid choice as leader, given the circumstances. He offers stability, experience, great political acumen, and has established relationships with the Trump transition team. Many have credited Leblanc with the decision, putting country ahead of party. However, if Leblanc was sitting on the fence since before Christmas, it would have been politically incumbent on him to step up as interim leader to ensure political stability as negotiations with the Trump team barrel towards the government.
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced on Friday she will also not seek the leadership. Joly, like Leblanc, said she is more focused on her portfolio during this critical time in US-Canada relations. She was at one point perceived as a potential front runner, even getting a full write up in the New York Times in late 2024. Joly has had to deflect criticisms that Canada has lost its stature on the world stage, pivoting away from traditional diplomatic relationships towards closer ties with Beijing and taking controversial positions on the Israeli Palestinian conflict.
As is with all leadership contests, it’s important to distinguish between the serious candidates and those individuals who are auditioning for a cabinet position by leveraging their bases of support to the candidate they think has the best shot (of giving them a cabinet position). The only declared candidates right now are current Liberal MP Chandra Arya and former Montreal Liberal MP Frank Baylis. Arya is not a Parliamentary Secretary, does not Chair any committee, and cannot speak French. Baylis’ intent to run is a headscratcher given the fact that Baylis faced controversy over his single term as MP when his company Baylis Medical received a contract for medical ventilators during COVID. Arya and Baylis are candidates with no chance of winning but hope to rally their supporters around their preferred candidate.
Other Trudeau cabinet members rumoured to be seeking the Leadership that could act as king or queen maker include MPs Karina Gould, Jonathan Wilkson and Anita Anand. All three have a slim-to-none-chance of securing the position but could have enough of a base of both financial and voter support to leverage for a top job in the next Prime Minister’s cabinet.
All that’s left are the heavy hitters: Freeland, Carney, Champagne, and Christie Clark. These four candidates stand the best chance of winning. Clark and Carney represent the “outsider” class of candidates, those who could reasonably claim not to have been part of Trudeau’s gaggle of cabinet members who are responsible for many of the policy failures plaguing the country. Clark has the advantage here, but she doesn’t speak French and comes with some baggage. Her former colleagues in the BC Liberal Party caucus suggest Clark has the potential to be an upset or dark horse candidate, with her chief strength being a uniting leader. On that note, Clark is credited with maintaining a coalition of liberal and conservative voters while BC Premier, a plus for any liberal interested in a candidate that has the potential to draw support away from the Tories. The biggest knock against Clark’s record is her failure to stifle – even after knowledge of the issue was brought to her attention – illicit money laundering operations in her province. Interestingly, Clark also bought a federal Conservative Party membership to vote for Jean Charest in the contest against Pierre Poilievre.
Carney has stated he will take time to think about entering the race, but all signs point to him taking the plunge. The Conservatives have already begun painting him with the Trudeau brush and pointing out the fact that he advised on the most recent $62B deficit budget. He is the perceived front runner and allegedly has lined up endorsements from former Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan and current Liberal MP George Chahal. Carney is expected to officially launch his candidacy next week and allegedly has lined up endorsements from former Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan and current Liberal MP George Chahal. As many as 30 other sitting Liberal MPs have committed their support to Carney who brings enormous fundraising power given his long career in finance and banking. Carney, along with Freeland, are well ahead of the pack in terms of recognition and favourability compared to the other candidates.
All that remain are the members of Trudeau’s inner circle. Freeland and Champagne represent the last ten years of the Liberal government baggage. Both have a reasonable shot at winning the leadership, although Freeland has a noticeable edge in name recognition and fundraising capabilities. She is a woman who held the most important portfolio for many years, she is respected by caucus and has earned a sort of hero status after her defiant resignation from cabinet. Freeland represents the more progressive wing of the Liberal Party while Champagne is perceived as a “business Liberal” of Paul Martin and Jean Chretien’s ilk. The progressive and centrist camps have been butting heads over the past several years, jockeying for prominence within the internal party coalition.
All this begs the question: who is the best candidate to defeat Pierre Poilievre? The answer is…none of them. Although Carney is well spoken and experienced, he is not a skilled retail politician and does not have a strong media or social media presence. Carney’s simultaneous advantage and disadvantage is that he is not that well known to voters. Should he become leader he will have time to establish his brand before the next election. On the other hand, being an outsider with little recognition leaves him vulnerable to being framed as having close personal ties to the Prime Minister, acting as a behind the scenes advisor on the most contentious issues. Freeland will have to convince voters her fiscal maleficence was not her doing, she never really was the Prime Minister’s right hand throughout his tenure even though she was with him lock step and defended the government’s actions during the trucker protest. Champagne will need to somehow justify billions in spending on electric vehicle projects that may be all for nought as the Trump administration eyes eliminating all EV mandates.
The next leader will have the daunting task of putting ten years of significant policy failures behind them, revitalizing the Liberal Party brand, and overcoming a 27-point deficit against the Conservatives, who gained two points since Trudeau’s resignation. Nanos Research also found 22% of Canadian voters chose none-of-the-above when asked which Liberal leadership hopeful they found most appealing. The leadership race is really a competition between candidates who could best rearrange the deck chairs on the titanic. Canadians have a strong desire for new leadership. A “change election” will almost certainly result in a Tory victory, just as Trudeau rode a wave of change all the way to 24 Sussex in 2015.
Will Canadians Head to the Polls this Spring?
Yes and no.
Yes, Ontarians should expect Premier Ford to call an early election. The PCs have been setting the stage to frame the provincial election as a choice between stability and competence versus risk in change during an uncertain time. The PCs are betting that Ontarians have no interest in changing horse mid stride. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie has failed to capture the attention of voters and actually polls worse in Ontario than Justin Trudeau, and Marit Stiles wallows in continued political irrelevance. The PCs are in a very good position financially and the Premier does not have many glaring vulnerabilities that would make him think twice about pulling the trigger. Ford does, however, have one potential political challenge he will need to navigate. With the federal Liberals expected to announce their leader on March 9th, the Premier’s best bet is to call an election no later than February 5th, which means the election writ period would have at least 32 days. The challenge here is mitigating what impact a provincial election will have on the probability of a Spring federal election and the preparations the Conservative Party of Canada are engaged in to contest it. Historically, Ontarians have not voted for the same party to govern the province as they have to govern the country. If you believe in superstition, it could be a bad omen for the Premier to call a provincial election that may alter the chances of the federal Tories’ success in Ontario.
Federally, voters across the country should not expect a spring election. Once the new federal Liberal leader is announced on March 9th, they will initiate the next legislative session with a speech from the throne, in which they will outline their agenda and priorities. The Liberals will offer the moon and the stars to the NDP to stay in power, prompting Jagmeet Singh to vote in favor of the supply bill (an automatic confidence vote) the Liberals will have to introduce by March 16th. Whomever wins the Liberal leadership will want as long a runway as possible to rebuild the party and new Leader’s brand in preparation for an October election, but even that could be extended into 2026. We are thinking that Canadians should not bet on casting a federal ballot any time soon.
Next Week’s Points of Focus
The current political environment has the ONpoint team squarely focused on signals from the feds and the province that will clarify the probability of a provincial and/or federal election this spring. We will continue to track the federal Liberal leadership horse race that could end up being a potential head-to-head matchup between Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney.
Point of Order
The internet never ceases to amaze us with its creativity—and sometimes, its ability to pull the wool over even the sharpest eyes. Case in point: the ONpoint team.
In the special edition of To the Point sent earlier this week, we included a link to www.carneyforcanada.ca, genuinely believing it was the official campaign website for former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. As it turns out, we weren’t the only ones fooled! In actuality, the website is a satirical parody, and not an announcement of his candidacy.
As clarified in today’s edition, Mark Carney stated he is seriously considering a leadership run, he has not yet officially announced his candidacy. (But hey, if this parody is any indication, the buzz around his potential candidacy is already strong!)
We had a good laugh at ourselves for falling for such a clever ruse, and we hope you’ll chuckle along with us. Our apologies for the mix-up—We’re reminded that navigating the internet is a bit like riding through the wild, wild west—unpredictable, full of twists, and sometimes leading to an unexpected “oops” moment.
We’re committed to making sure To the Point stays accurate, insightful, and (we hope) always worth your time.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
