To the Point: For the Week of January 12th, 2025
To the Point for the Week of January 12, 2025
Premier Ford’s messaging this week all but assures a provincial election while Bonnie Crombie makes the case to avoid going to the polls. Ford sends mixed signals. We provide a leadership race update and our take on what the race is about.
PROVINCIAL
Ford Sets the Stage for an Election Call
Premier Doug Ford subtly, but clearly hinted earlier this week that should President Trump follow through with his threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods flowing into the US, he will seek a mandate from Ontario voters to weather the resulting economic storm that may include spending billions of dollars to support businesses and industries most impacted. Speaking at the Royal Ontario Museum to outline his forthcoming Am-Can Growth Plan, the Premier made it clear that "I think, if it comes to it and we have to spend tens of billions of dollars, we go to the people, let the people decide.”
The stage is now set. The Premier and the Ontario PCs have latched onto the tariff threat as the perfect framing for an early election. Prior to the tariff crisis, the Premier’s justification for an election would have been weak and opened him up to various lines of attack from the opposition. The contest would have primarily revolved around issues like healthcare, traffic and congestion, homeless encampments, and the economy, all issues Ford commanded prior to Trump’s re-election. Now, the election will be primarily centred around which candidate possesses the leadership qualities to resolutely respond to the emergency. Premier Ford’s team has done a good job ensuring the Premier is in the media spotlight, which has amounted to almost daily free re-election advertising. With that much net positive exposure, it will be difficult for voters to decide to dump Ford for Crombie’s Liberals.
Bonnie Crombie Makes Her Case to Avoid Election
At the launch of her party’s More for You Tour, Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie declared a spring election would be unnecessary and tried to paint Ford as a selfish opportunist attempting to shield himself from accountability resulting from the Greenbelt scandal. Crombie also suggested that holding an election at an approximate cost of $175M was a reckless use of taxpayer dollars and tried to link Ford’s desire for an election as indicative of a reckless spending record. Crombie also attacked Ford on his healthcare record after video circulated online of 500 people lining up in Brockton in order to secure patient spots with a new family physician that opened a practice in the town.
Crombie’s message track does not exactly exude confidence in her leadership and gives the perception that she is unprepared for a spring election. While she tries to frame the Premier as selfish and opportunistic, her messaging seems like avoidance, like she is aware her political fortunes are not lining up. The Premier has been displaying leadership and resoluteness, even in the face of economic uncertainty. These are quality that voters want in a candidate, and Ford is delivering it to them.
The Premier has also been leaning into policy prescriptions that demonstrate a serious appreciation and understanding of the underlining issues that sparked the tariff threat, such as Operation Deterrence and the Am-Can Growth Plan. On the other hand, Crombie continues to bring up the Greenbelt scandal and the controversy surrounding Thermae Spa at Ontario Place, issues about which voters have largely forgotten. Crombie would be wise to avoid griping about the prospects of an election and begin proposing credible action plans that indicate her own depth and breadth of understanding of the most critical issue currently facing the province. Only then could her political fortunes begin to brighten.
Ford Sends Mixed Signals
We have noted over the course of the last several weeks how the Prime Minister’s announcement of his forthcoming exit as Leader of the Liberal Party has created a leadership vacuum in this country at the worst possible time. To his credit, the Premier has largely, and for the most part positively, filled that vacuum. Recently, however, the Premier has been sending mixed signals that would lead many to wonder what exactly is the Premier’s gameplan when it comes to addressing US tariffs.
The Premier stated last week how he had not heard from the Prime Minister and cited a lack of leadership coming from Ottawa. This week, after meeting with Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, the Premier had a change of heart, stating he was happy with the federal government’s $1B plan to beef up border security. The Premier intelligently launched a US media blitz, in both paid advertisements and 24/7 news channel appearances, pumping up the mutually beneficial US-Canada relationship and how the two nations must work together to avoid a mutually costly trade war. At the same time, the Premier has been pushing antagonistic messaging around retaliating against the Americans. Finally, the Premier talked a big game about the necessity of a Team Canada approach but later scolded Alberta Premier Danielle Smith for having the wherewithal to defend Alberta’s industries, just as he has been doing.
The Premier is in a very challenging political environment now, one that requires various message tracks for different audiences. One could make the argument that the Premier’s current communications strategy, apparently one for a domestic and another for a US audience, could run him the risk of being accused of speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Is the Premier more focused on finding solutions to the impasse or is he more focused on campaigning for re-election by issuing threats of his own? It would be detrimental to Canada’s position to enter negotiations with the Americans if the Premier’s rhetoric was misinterpreted or misunderstood. President Trump does not come across as a leader who cares at all what the domestic political realities are for either Premier Ford or Prime Minister Trudeau.
FEDERAL
Leadership Race Update: Who’s In and Who’s Out
We are only about a week into the federal Liberal leadership race and already we have seen some surprises around who’s taking the plunge to try and right the red ship. First, Anita Anand, a “business liberal” whom we thought would be a king or queen maker in this leadership race, decided not to seek the top role. Anand served in various ministerial roles including national defense, treasury board president, and the first minister of public services and procurement, a portfolio created during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is believed in political circles that the Prime Minister did not trust Anand and that shifting her to public services and procurement during the pandemic was an attempt to set her up for failure. However, Anand managed to steward the newly created portfolio, much to the chagrin to the Prime Minister’s Office. It is likely her decision not to seek the leadership, as well as re-election, was based on the sour relationship she has with the Prime Minister and his inner circle. Anand was a lawyer and professor at the University of Toronto and intends to return to her position at the prestigious law school.
Francois-Philippe Champagne also decided to not enter the fray. In a fireside chat with journalist Amanda Lang at the Canadian Club Toronto, Champagne shared with the audience his decision not to contend for the leadership was “one of the most difficult decisions” of his life. The Quebec MP held three portfolios during his time in Trudeau’s cabinet, most recently as Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry. Champagne is also considered a business liberal but had a very close relationship with the Prime Minister. Securing various electric vehicle and EV battery investments in the province was his chief achievement, although it might be for naught as demand for EVs is declining and the incoming Trump administration has signalled its intent to kill EV mandates. Champagne is mum about whether he will seek re-election.
The biggest political “it was over before it started” story of this race was former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark’s short-lived consideration to run for Trudeau’s job. It all started late last week when CBC’s Catherine Cullen sat down with Clark for an interview. Cullen asked Clark about her purchase of a Conservative Party of Canada membership to vote for Jean Charest in the Tory contest that saw Pierre Poilievre run away with a huge victory. Clark, visibly stumped by the line of questioning, stumbled over her answer, claiming she never got a membership and did not receive a ballot. Cullen then showed receipts in the form of past statements from Clark where she exuded enthusiasm to receive her CPC ballot and vote for Jean Charest. Many thought Clark would be an actual outsider in the race with the potential to be an upset candidate, but unfortunately, we will now never know.
As was expected and widely anticipated, both Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney announced their intent to run for the top spot. Carney made his announcement on Thursday in Edmonton to a group of supporters during which he acknowledged “People's wages are too low. The federal government spends too much, but it invests too little. Middle-class taxes are too high." Carney also went on to attack Pierre Poilievre saying, “Populists don't understand the economy and our society.” After so much hype and anticipation, largely manufactured by media and online personalities, the announcement did not make any major waves. In fact, many recognized it as a failure to launch, pointing to the fact that Carney lacks presence when speaking and his French language skills are subpar. The one thing that stood out from his announcement was his tepid stance on the future of the “consumer” carbon price, a policy that Carney has long advocated, even at a global scale.
Yesterday, it was Chrystia Freeland’s turn to have the spotlight, except she did not have a major campaign event, opting instead to announce her leadership run via a statement posted to her social media accounts with a single sentence: “I’m running to fight for Canada.” Freeland’s campaign coupled her announcement with an op-ed in the Toronto Star titled “We Won’t Back Down to Donald Trump.” Days before her confirmation to run, it was reported that Freeland was also in favour of scrapping the consumer carbon price, but with a caveat: she will replace it with a system that is established in a collaborative way with the provinces and territories. Her position on the carbon tax begs the question: if the provinces and territories don’t collaboratively find a replacement system, what then?
Leadership Race an Attempt to Memory Hole the Last 10 Years
If there was a sign this leadership race was not designed as a contest of ideas, leadership qualities and styles, and vision for the country, look no further than the scrubbing of Chrystia Freeland’s Instagram account of anything other than her announcement to run. Why is that important? Because it is symbolic of what this leadership race actually is: an attempt to completely memory hole the last 10 years of Liberal Party rule over this country. Need more convincing? See Carney’s biggest caucus backer MP George Chalal’s opening remarks during Carney’s announcement that will make for an effective CPC ad: “We have a stagnant economy. Our wages feel like they are frozen, but costs keep escalating. We face a fractured political divide that has pitted Canadian versus Canadian.” Interesting take, given the issues Chalal identified have arisen over the last ten years during which the Liberals have held on to power. Want more signs? Both candidates are attempting to frame themselves as either a change candidate, an outsider, or both, despite the fact they were instrumental in implementing the policies that resulted in the outcomes noted by Chalal. One more for good measure: both Carney and Freeland are trying to position themselves as being against the “consumer” carbon tax, arguably the most economically damaging tax policy the country has ever implemented, that we were told by Freeland was putting more money in our pockets while saving the planet. Mark Carney has appeared in various forums around the world advocating for a carbon tax at a higher rate and on a global scale.
The attempt to whitewash the last ten years of Liberal governance is remarkably like the dynamics of the US Presidential election. The hype surrounding Kamala Harris, who won zero primaries, for whom zero ballots were cast during the primaries, was manufactured and choreographed by legacy media outlets. The corporate news media attempted to build up Harris’ candidacy as a moderate who either resisted or flat out was not involved in developing, supporting, leading, or executing any of the major policy failures of not just the Biden administration but also while she was California’s Attorney General and US Senator for the state. What the Kamala Harris campaign team failed to appreciate, and the Liberals are doing the same to their detriment, is that the internet is forever.
Neither Freeland nor Carney will be successful as a moderate, change candidate or outsider, should either win the leadership. Both candidates have over a decade of interviews, speeches, public appearances, statements either supporting or expressing a need to double down on some of the most damaging policies implemented during Trudeau’s tenure. Even days before Carney and Freeland’s announcements, internet sleuths and independent journalists began sharing videos of Freeland and Carney very proudly pushing for the types of policies, laws and regulations from which they are now trying to run away. Not only are Canadians sharing videos and images contradicting the top two candidates in the race, US social media personalities and influencers are also sharing media to their significant Canadian audiences. It is the first time that we could remember US observers caring at all about a Canadian party’s leadership race, let alone caring about Canadian politics at all.
The Conservatives understand this, and it is the reason why their social media game has become so effective. The Tories’ social media team understand what types of media get shares, views and likes online and have become successful at producing mini documentaries focused on critical issues. While these tactics have been valuable for the Tories since Poilievre secured his Party’s leadership, they have cranked the dial to 11 over the course of the last two weeks, driving engagements on posts highlighting the political records of Freeland and Carney’s positions on the issues and policies with which Canadians are fed up.
The race is still in its infancy, but one can reasonably conclude that the Liberal Party understands the current political landscape, which is one entirely of their own making. Perhaps their internal polling paints a much bleaker picture than what they are projecting publicly: the party brand has taken such a hit that their best bet is to completely whitewash the entire Justin Trudeau era and pray people forget. It will not be successful. People do not forget that easily.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
Provincially, we are going to focus the bulk of our attention on any developments that may provide more clarity on the Premier’s intent on calling a spring election. We will also continue monitoring Bonnie Crombie’s More for You tour to gauge whether her team is properly prepared to fight a spring election. The tension between Ontario and Alberta around retaliatory tariffs will also a be on our radar.
Trump’s inauguration, his immediate actions and the government’s response will be our primary federal focus. The Liberal leadership race will still be prominent, but we also want to track the next steps of the newly formed Council on US-Canada Relations established by the federal government as well as the Canada US Trade Council formed by various major industry associations. We will track who the key figures are, what policies they are advocating, and what impact they may have on negotiations between the two nations.
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