To the Point: For the Week of January 19th, 2025
To the Point for the Week of January 19, 2025
Ford makes it official. The Liberal leadership race passed a key milestone as candidates backtrack on past positions. We outline three key lessons from President Trump’s first week back in the White House.
ONTARIO ELECTION WATCH
PCs Dominate the Polls as Premier Announces Date of Writ Drop
Premier Ford made it official. He will be calling an election on Wednesday, January 29th with the Ontario PC Party firmly in the driver’s seat. It is not even close. A poll released by Leger this week shows Premier Ford’s party up by 24 points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party and 27 points on the Ontario NDP, led by Marit Stiles. Based on these polling numbers, if an election were held today, the PCs would secure 100 seats, a whopping 21 more seats than they currently hold in the Ontario Legislature. Both the Liberals and NDP would end up with 10 seats respectively. The PCs are currently dominating in every region of the province, from Niagara to the GTA, and from Ottawa to the North.
The Premier has been driving home the notion that he needs a mandate from the people to address the threat of tariffs emanating from the South. The question is: is a 79-seat majority not enough to tackle whatever actions President Trump enacts on February 1st? The Premier’s rationale would make more sense if the PCs were in a minority status, but seeking to increase their seat count by 21 points at the cost of $175M does add credence to Bonnie Crombie’s line of attack that an election at this time is opportunistic, and politically cynical. With a recession on the horizon, the Premier does not want to go to an election in 2026 during an economic downturn, a much harder environment for governments to be re-elected. That’s politics, for you.
President Trump handed a gift to Premier Ford. Any policy issue outside of the economy is virtually irrelevant, no matter how pressing the issues are to the quality of life of Ontarians. The public’s almost rabid desire to stick it to Trump, no matter how painful it will be for the nation, has produced incredible polling conditions for Ford, allowing him to control narrative around the election and to frame it solely around tariffs. The Premier has no plans to take the foot off the gas, but he should be cautious. No political leader wants to cut off their nose to spite their face. And while an anti-Trump stance may resonate politically here at home, the Premier’s dual message track may come back to bite him as an Ontario delegation of leaders is expected to head to Washington to meet with officials in February.
Neither Crombie nor Stiles have presented anything resembling a credible alternative to the Premier’s offering and are insisting now is not the time to call an election. Perhaps both leaders are considering their personal political futures, rather than the interest of their respective parties or Ontarians. Crombie will more than likely not survive a leadership challenge if the grits do not retake official party status and form opposition. Even then, is Crombie the type of politician willing to sit in the opposition bench for five years for the chance to maybe become Premier? We do not believe so. Stiles’ fortunes are a little bit brighter, although it is hard to tell whether her caucus and party membership would tolerate moving from Official Opposition to third party status. Andrea Horwath survived four provincial elections before resigning in 2022, so Stiles may receive some grace should her party vacate second place. If Crombie is in it for the long haul, then her sights should be set on the NDP. She should drop the “I’m a centrist” schtick. It is not resonating. Instead, she should be going after Stiles for not doing her job in holding Doug Ford accountable, allowing him to ignore issues like healthcare, homelessness and housing. The best outcome for the Ontario Liberal Party is firmly securing official opposition and spend four years rebuilding the Party for a shot at power in 2029.
FEDERAL
Liberal Leadership Race Update: Deadlines and Backtracks
The federal Liberal leadership race reached a critical milestone on Thursday afternoon. All candidates were required to submit their official nomination papers along with their $50,000 deposit before Thursday at 5pm. Each candidate was also required to secure the signatures of 300 registered Liberals, with at least 100 signatures emanating from at least three provinces or territories. Canadians interested in voting in the leadership race must register as a Liberal by Monday, January 27. All the declared candidates have indicated sent their documents to party headquarters to be processed. The most recent entrant, former MP and blast from the past, Ruby Dhalla, managed to submit her documents mere days after announcing her very odd leadership campaign. Each candidate will also need to be approved by both the Liberal Party of Canada as well as Elections Ontario. Do not be surprised if one or two candidates do not have all their paperwork properly filled out to qualify as an official candidate.
The race was dominated by so much backtracking by Freeland and Carney this week they might as well have been moonwalking. Freeland started her week by dropping a campaign video framing her opposition to President Trump (que surprise!), and later attending campaign events and hitting the morning talk show circuit. Her biggest announcement this week was – and this is too funny – her commitment to – get ready for it – scrap the capital gains tax! A tax she championed wholeheartedly now is just too burdensome to continue. Freeland has now backtracked on the GST holiday, the carbon tax and the capital gains tax. Is there anything else she would backtrack on? Indeed there is, Freeland is now suggesting the Liberal Party implement a mechanism to remove unpopular leaders.
Remarkably, Carney’s campaign managed to backtrack on a backtrack, if that’s even possible. You will recall Mark Carney did some of his own backtracking on the carbon tax. Carney made it seem like he was going to officially distance himself from the policy, but then federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault decided to give a full-throated endorsement of Mark Carney. The endorsement immediately raised red flags since Guilbeault is the most radical environmentalist in Trudeau’s circle. He has been the architect of Trudeau’s environmental policy and has been championing and defending the tax since becoming environment minister in 2021. He may have shared more than intended when he suggested he will be working with the leadership hopeful on finding a replacement to the consumer carbon tax. It is unclear whether the backtrack on the backtrack was required to secure Guilbeault’s endorsement.
Acknowledging a policy was poorly implemented or conceived should not be a death knell for any government. Human beings aren’t infallible. Mistakes happen. However, Carney and Freeland should not be excused for backtracking on the policies that she implemented faithfully, the same ill-conceived policies that Carney himself intentionally advised Prime Minister Trudeau to adopt.
Freeland and Carney could have been afforded a redemption arc if they took the Bill Morneau route out of government. Although Chrystia Freeland’s predecessor at finance abruptly resigned because of his role in the WE Charity scandal, Morneau nevertheless now has freedom to openly criticize the government’s economic and tax policies, even though he was instrumental in many of those policies during his tenure. If Bill Morneau decided to re-enter the political arena, he would have a five-year buffer between his time in office and in the private sector to rebrand himself as a fiscally responsible and economically focused candidate. Freeland simply cannot whitewash her record like she did her Instagram account, and Carney cannot distance himself from which he was proudly and intrinsically connected to over the years. The Liberals proudly announced he was actively advising the government in an official capacity. Freeland has always been inside the butcher shop. She did not just know how the sausage is made, she piped it into the casing, and Mark Carney supplied the meat.
“See How Fast Shit Can Happen When We Want it To?”
A blunt statement shared by National Post columnist Chris Selley, who posted it on X Wednesday. Selley was responding to a CTV News story that reported the RCMP had begun patrolling the US-Manitoba border using Blackhawk helicopters as part of the Trudeau government’s $1B border plan. But why is it important to fully appreciate Selley’s poetic prose? Because it is a reminder that addressing problems – in this case our porous border – is a matter of political will. Whether governments are compelled – either by coercion (tariff threats) or political conviction (lax border security is bad) – implementing a solution comes down determination, intention, and decisiveness.
In the final section of this week’s To the Point, we want to provide a brief analysis of the first week of President Donald Trump’s second term in office. The policy measures implemented in his first week in office are too numerous to analyze here. Instead, we want to highlight three critical lessons that should be deeply internalized by political actors across the western world, especially for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
A Demonstration of Pure Political Will
Regardless of individual opinions on President Trump, his first week of his second administration has been marked by a swift and determined approach to enacting campaign promises. Within hours of being sworn in, President Trump signed several Executive Orders, signaling the administration’s priorities in areas such as border security, immigration, international trade, domestic energy production, economic policy, and foreign affairs. This focused start reflects a commitment to the agenda outlined during his campaign and the expectations of those who supported him.
The actions taken during these early days illustrate the impact of decisive political leadership in pursuing a clearly defined mandate. President Trump’s approach underscores the importance of aligning political will with governance objectives, maintaining consistency between campaign rhetoric and policy implementation.
For a prospective Pierre Poilievre government, this serves as a reminder that addressing national challenges requires strong determination and a willingness to make difficult decisions. Canada faces significant issues that demand immediate attention. Tackling these effectively will necessitate bold leadership, prioritizing urgent matters simultaneously, and embracing a proactive and resolute stance to reverse course on areas of national concern.
No Need to Govern from the Centre
President Trump’s first week has challenged the conventional expectation that a party campaigning on one side of the political spectrum must govern from the center. Regardless of one’s stance on his agenda, the President campaigned decisively on a populist-right platform, which resonated with many voters. Those who supported this agenda expect its implementation without significant compromise. For instance, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began operations targeting known violent offenders in the country illegally immediately after the inauguration, with deportation flights commencing within days. This swift action reflects a clear understanding by the administration of the mandate provided by voters and their expectation of follow-through on campaign commitments.
Pierre Poilievre finds himself in a somewhat comparable position. While the political landscapes of the United States and Canada differ, there are parallels in voter sentiment. After years of progressive policies, many Canadians appear to be seeking change, as reflected in the growing support for Poilievre’s messaging on reducing taxes, balancing the budget, addressing housing shortages, and tackling crime. Should he secure a strong electoral mandate, it will be essential for Poilievre to approach governance with the same clarity and resolve, ensuring that the priorities he has articulated during the campaign are addressed as promised.
Do Not Allow Your Opposition to Mobilize on a Single Issue
A key feature of President Trump’s first week has been the rapid pace at which his administration has acted to implement its agenda. Policies on border security and deportations have already been executed, while other initiatives, such as the restructuring of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, have been announced. The administration’s approach reflects lessons learned from Trump’s first term, particularly regarding personnel and decision-making processes. With multiple policy developments unfolding daily across domestic and international fronts, the administration has maintained a strong presence in the news cycle, leaving opposition efforts fragmented and less effective in forming a unified response. Early perceptions suggest significant activity within the administration’s initial days, which some supporters contrast with the pace of the previous administration.
Meanwhile, a recent Ipsos poll found that 77% of Canadians want an election immediately, signaling a public appetite for decisive action in response to issues such as Trump’s tariff threats. Canadians appear to favor a government capable of swift and bold action over incremental changes. Should Pierre Poilievre secure a mandate, it will likely be accompanied by strong public expectations for rapid progress across a range of policy areas. While such an approach must be deliberate and well-coordinated, it would also need to be executed with urgency to maintain momentum and prevent opposition forces from organizing an effective counter-strategy.
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
