To the Point: For the Week of March 2nd, 2025
To the Point for the Week of March 2nd,
LEADERSHIP MATTERS
Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. It’s all about tariffs. Tariffs here. Tariffs there. Tariffs up. Tariffs down. Tariffs everywhere. The roller coaster of this trade war between Canada and the United States continues to create political chaos across the country. Canada has not faced national turmoil like this since the Free Trade Agreement debate in the early 1980s.
There is a crisis of certainty and if there is anything that upsets citizens and markets alike, it is the utter lack of control our political leaders seem to have in the current landscape. We could take you through a play-by-play of the “on” and “off” tarrif threats, but that will likely change as soon as we hit send, so we will spare you the ping-pong.
What we are happy to do, though, is write about leadership during this trade crisis. Why? Because it matters. Enough time has passed since this crisis emerged, giving us ample proof points to compare how two leaders in this drama have fared: Premier Doug Ford and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Ford’s Theatre
Since this trade rollercoaster emerged a few months ago, no other elected official has positioned themselves as working harder to mitigate this crisis than Doug Ford, even though the Premier is constitutionally limited from doing much else. Ontario can only technically take action that falls under its constitutional jurisdiction, namely regulatory measures, procurement policies, export policies under the constitutional authority of the province (like electricity). It can also take symbolic measures like removing US alcohol from Ontario shelves. And yet, technical jurisdiction be damned, the Premier continues to position himself as Team Canada’s captain.
The Premier has stewarded the Council of the Federation to implore the Prime Minister to take retaliatory trade actions against the United States, feverishly meeting with DC to lobby US counterparts, appearing regularly on American news networks, and deploying a multi-million-dollar US ad campaign that included Super Bowl spots. In true Doug Ford style, the Premier has also been burning up his phone calling governors, CEOs, congressmen, senators and other key US allies to implore the President to change course. The Premier has simply been relentless and firm that Ontario, and the country, will not be pushed around, going as far as insisting Americans need to feel the pain caused by a trade war instigated by their own government.
Some may criticize the Premier’s actions as reckless and unnecessary over fears it may antagonize the administration. The fact is he has been successfully filling a leadership vacuum left wide open -by the feds. It is the Premier’s tough stance in this crisis that has earned him a direct line to the administration that is often said to respect strength and power. As the Globe & Mail’s Laura Stone reported this week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the Premier directly after the Premier’s press conference during which he threatened to cut off power to the United States. The call was tense. Lutnick very clearly told the Premier the comments made by officials, including those made by the Prime Minister, were not helpful. Ford didn’t budge though, telling Lutnick he wouldn’t back down. Sources say Lutnick understood where the Premier was coming from, and Lutnick sought an opportunity to get passed the rhetoric and negotiate a deal. Two days later, the administration implemented the USMCA exemptions until April 2nd.
The call between Lutnick and the Premier is important for two reasons. First, it potentially signifies a change as to who the US administration perceives to be the rational actor amongst elected officials in Canada. Why wouldn’t Lutnick call the Prime Minister, or at the very least Dominic Leblanc? Does the administration believe the Premier has influence over the actions of the federal government? That we’re not sure of, but it is certainly a sea change from when the Premier’s trip to Washington only resulted in a short meeting with low level officials. Second, the abrupt U-turn from the administration in fewer than two days may indicate the President is feeling internal pressure to reverse course. Our contacts in Ottawa have been very clear governors and state level elected officials are emphatically against this trade war. It is conceivable that the Premier’s insistence on leveraging his political relationships with these key players had a role in the President’s latest reversal.
Instigate. Not Mitigate.
Weeks ago, we wrote about how President Trump’s threat of tariffs delivered exactly what the Liberals wanted: a national crisis around which they could rally the country to save their own political skins and to justify emergency measures, namely, to spend billions of dollars of COVID-like supports for workers and businesses. It is the chief reason Trudeau and his Liberal cohorts have been so aggressive in their stance against the Trump administration. Cynically, it is in their best political interest to perpetuate this crisis (think vaccine passports, or maybe don’t, and let’s go back to memory-holing that time period).
Regardless, the rhetoric emanating from the Prime Minister is designed to instigate rather than mitigate the conflict between the two countries. And why would he stop? It has resulted in the Liberals’ rise in the polls and has set the stage for the ballot question: “Which leader is best to deal with President Trump?” Trudeau’s –ahem– Carney’s best chance of winning the next election is to perpetuate this crisis for as long as politically possible.
While it is clear that the Prime Minister and his team have had direct dialogue with the administration as evidenced by the President’s taunting on Truth Social whenever it happens, there seems to be little fruit born, and even worse, it seems to expand the threats. The Prime Minister’s repetition of the increased boarder measures isn’t having a resonant effect down south, but he is committed to sticking to his lines anyway. He also touts that less than 1% of the source of fentanyl is seized at the Canadian border, with “seized” being an important qualifier. Canadian ports are unbelievably lax when it comes to ensuring illegal drugs, guns, and other products of organized crime don’t make their way into or out of the country. Inspection rules at Canadian ports mean that fewer than 1% of shipping containers are inspected when coming into the country, while train cargo is not inspected at all. The Prime Minster has called the fentanyl play “bogus”, and Melanie Joly has been out saying that this is a backdoor way to open USMCA. Even if we afford them the benefit of the doubt, anyone who takes a drive into the downtown core of any city or town across Ontario can clearly see we have a massive drug addiction problem. The drugs are coming in somehow, so it stands to reason they are getting out too. If the Prime Minister was sincerely interested at all in solving this impasse with the Americans, a more comprehensive approach to border security would be on offer.
Trudeau’s press conference this week, following the Trump administration’s initiation of tariffs, was designed to be nationalistic, and abrasive in a naked attempt to pour gasoline on the proverbial fire. Calling the situation “dumb”, referring to the President as “Donald”, and seemingly encouraging the boorish behaviour of booing the Star-Spangled Banner, are all indicative of the Prime Minister’s intent to exacerbate the problem. It seems to have worked as Friday afternoon the President once again threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy. The President seems to have caught on to this gambit, calling out Trudeau on social media for trying to use this crisis to stay in power. The Prime Minister risks a diminishing rate of return going all in on poking the orange bear with a very short stick. President Trump has proven himself to be wildly unpredictable. It is within the realm of possibile that he will take outlandish measures just to make Trudeau feel political pain by exposing some very real economic and social problems in his own back yard.
Leadership in the Crosshairs
As the tariff tempest churns on, the contrast couldn’t be starker. Doug Ford’s relentless, sleeves-rolled-up approach has cracked open a dialogue with the Trump administration, proving grit can move the needle, even if just for a moment. Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau’s fire-stoking rhetoric keeps the crisis simmering, a calculated play to buoy the Liberals’ fortunes as Carney waits in the wings. Both are betting big: Ford on relationships, Trudeau on division. But only one of these two is talking to the right people. With lumber and dairy back in Trump’s crosshairs, Canada is caught in a high-stakes game where leadership isn’t just tested, it’s exposed. Stay strapped in. This ride is far from over.
While the political battle rages on, the economic wreckage is piling up. Supply chains are in limbo, investment is stalling, and businesses are being forced into survival mode. Ontario’s manufacturing sector, already battered by uncertainty, is bracing for impact. Consumers aren’t far behind, facing higher prices on almost everything. Small businesses are in the unenviable position of either absorbing rising costs or passing them on. What started as a war of words may soon be hitting pocketbooks, and with no end in sight, the fallout will only get worse before it gets better.
The Day to Day
Despite the breakneck speed of the political landscape, we have just learned that Premier Ford will be swearing in his cabinet on March 19th and the house will resume on April 14th. We don’t expect any significant changes to cabinet as there is much work to do and continuity means expedition in the political world. We will of course keep everyone informed if we are learning otherwise.
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To the Point – ONpoint Strategy Group's weekly roundup – cuts through the noise to deliver insight and analysis of key federal, provincial, and municipal stories shaping Canada's policy and political landscape. Designed for decision-makers and thought leaders, this newsletter is your go-to resource for staying ahead. Share these trusted insights with your network to spark meaningful conversations. Simply hit forward or follow ONpoint Strategy Group on X and LinkedIn to spread these valuable perspectives."
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
