To the Point: For the Week of March 9th, 2025
To the Point for the Week of March 9th,
Power politics leads to a high-level meeting at the White House. Ford seeks continuity in his cabinet. We assess Carney’s first week on the job. An agenda item for Toronto City Council’s Executive Committee meeting has many crying an affront to democracy.
ONTARIO
Sparks Fly Over Electricity Surcharge
Premier Doug Ford followed through on weeks of rhetoric and counter-threats on Monday, firing back at Trump’s tariffs by announcing a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to U.S. states like Michigan and New York. It got Trump’s attention, and his reaction is perhaps one Ford did not anticipate. Along with some, let’s say, choice words, Trump responded to the Premier’s actions by threatening to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% in retaliation. It was inevitable that the administration would respond forcefully to Ford’s move. Luckily for the Premier, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick extended “an olive branch” on March 11 by offering an in-person meeting in Washington with the Secretary and US Trade Representatives. The objective of this meeting was to bring down the temperature, avoid the surcharge, and initiate dialogue between Ontario and the administration. Ford agreed to the meeting and, as an act of good faith, suspended the surcharge. On Thursday, Premier Ford, with federal finance minister Dominic Leblanc in tow, jetted to DC for what he called a “productive” 90 minute sit-down with Trump’s officials, including Secretary Lutnick.
Ford’s tone and demeanour changed significantly this week. Any elected official would likely reconsider their approach after provoking a forceful response from President Trump. Nevertheless, the imposition of the surcharge spurred a dialogue, something that has been lacking over the last few months. But we caution on getting overly excited about a relatively quick end to this trade war. Premier Ford is still acting as Captain Canada, but his role in further negotiations is constitutionally limited. This raises interesting questions: Why is Premier Ford doing all the heavy lifting with the United States when we had both a Prime Minister and Prime Minister designate all week? Why is the Premier spending political capital to play the role as Canada’s chief representative in this trade war? Sure, Ontario is the economic engine that drives the country and has a lot at stake in a prolonged trade war, but he’s being forced to spend a lot of political capital and energy that should be directed at addressing other core issues facing the province.
Make no mistake, the Liberals will not tolerate any risks to their incredible comeback. The Liberals may use the Premier to insulate Carney from any perception that he’s being diplomatic with Trump, jeopardizing the political narrative built over the last two months critical to Carney’s increasingly likely electoral success, while still benefiting from any wins generated by the Premier. The Premier may also be used as a distraction against the administration and allow Carney to travel to the Old World to form a counter-Trump coalition with European countries. This, we’re sure, will be an irritant to the President. Any failures at the negotiating table could result in the blame being pinned on Ford. Tread cautiously, Premier.
Cabinet Confirmations
The Premier looks to get back to governing next week following his third majority victory with the swearing in of cabinet on March 19th. While we do anticipate some portfolio hand offs, don’t expect to see many fresh faces entering cabinet. The Premier wants a continuity of government and will fill the most critical trade related portfolios with his seasoned veterans, particularly Peter Bethlenfalvy at Finance and Vic Fedeli at the Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade.
The housing portfolio, however, sounds like it is up for grabs. Minister Calandra’s tenure as Minister of Housing and Municipal affairs did not deliver the expected results on the file. Consequently, what we are hearing is that the Premier is either looking to promote Todd McCarthy (MPP for Ajax) or Graham McGregor (MPP for Brampton North) to the role. McCarthy, a seasoned lawyer who founded a legal practice in Whitby with the late Jim Flaherty, was Minister of Public and Business Service Delivery prior to the election, while Graham McGregor was Associate Minister of Auto Theft and Bail reform. The housing portfolio would be an enormous step up for McGregor who before being elected in 2022 was a staff member for former minister Rod Phillips. Other names being floated for the housing file include Minister of Infrastructure Kinga Surma and Attorney General Doug Downey. Both would be considered lateral moves to the Ministry and may be the best bet for the Premier to get some results on housing over the course of the next year.
FEDERAL
Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss
The Who were on to something when they released Won’t Be Fooled Again in 1971. However, in this instance, we may be fooled again. Prime Minister Carney (weird to say that now) ran his leadership campaign as the “outsider” and a change agent, a claim easily debunked knowing his advisory role to the outgoing Prime Minister on economic and fiscal policy for the better part of a decade. The intent was to distance himself from Trudeau to undermine Poilievre’s ability to attack him as a continuation of the Trudeau years. However, his cabinet picks this week objectively undermine that notion. About 87% of the previous Trudeau cabinet will now hold a portfolio under Carney, including Anita Anand, François-Philippe Champagne, Mélanie Joly, Dominic Leblanc and Stephen Guilbeault. To be fair, Ford also emphasized continuity in his cabinet choices—but he just won re-election. Carney is about to fight his first one on the basis he’s not like the last guy.
Even more problematic, Carney’s cabinet appointees were directly responsible for policies under Trudeau that many view as failures. For example, while Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, Champagne spearheaded billions in taxpayer supports for EV projects that are at risk of failure. Guilbeault as Minister of Environment and Climate Change spearheaded the heated carbon tax, a policy many consider to be a significant hinderance to the country’s economic growth and a heavy burden for Canadian families. And for all the talk about building energy infrastructure, Stephen Guilbeault as Carney’s Quebec Lieutenant puts a nail in that coffin quickly.
With several months of preparation, why wouldn’t Mark Carney invest in building a team of reputable leaders from various sectors and industries that share his vision of the country? Surely, there are many out there who believe in serving this government under Carney’s vision as an elected official. Why resort to the same cast of characters? If Carney’s goal was to distance his tenure from Trudeau, he’s not off to a great start.
No Evidence of a Dialogue Established
When a new U.S. president or Canadian prime minister steps into the spotlight, all eyes—and ears—turn to that first foreign phone call. Tradition often dials up the neighbor next door, with incoming U.S. presidents like Biden and Obama ringing Canada’s PM first. North of the border, Canadian leaders like Trudeau (who called Obama) and Harper (who reached out to President Bush) have returned the favour. The tradition is symbolic of the historical, economic, and political ties between Canada and the U.S. However, the unique circumstances, let’s say, may have put this tradition to bed.
Prime Minister Carney elected not to make his first call to President Trump, or anyone in the administration for that matter. Our most significant economic challenge in decades, from an ally no less, apparently did not warrant a call. As mentioned above, Carney seems content with the Premier doing the heavy lifting leading the way in DC while he plans to visit Europe next week in what many interpret as an exercise in deepening ties with the Old World to form an anti-Trump coalition. The move contradicts all of Carney’s tough talk during the leadership campaign and may lead some to conclude that – wait for it – Carney and the Liberals intend to prolong the crisis for political advantage. How cynical.
And with the Stroke of a Pen
While his cabinet picks signal a continuation of the Trudeau years, the Prime Minister’s follow-through on scrapping the consumer carbon tax—on paper—marks a dramatic break from the previous leader. By zeroing out the federal fuel charge effective April 1, 2025, via an order-in-council, Carney delivered on a campaign pledge to ease household costs, but the catch lies in his simultaneous vow to “make polluters pay” by ramping up the industrial carbon pricing framework. On the surface, it’s a populist win: kill the visible tax, pocket the applause. Dig deeper, and it’s a calculated gamble that risks nullifying itself as producers pass those costs right back to consumers.
Carney’s not abandoning carbon pricing—he’s redirecting it. The Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act still stands, and its industrial arm, the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS), will now bear the load. Large emitters—think oil refineries, steel plants, and manufacturers—face stiffer levies, with Carney hinting at tightening emissions caps and hiking the price per tonne. The logic? Force industry to innovate or pay, preserving Canada’s Paris Agreement goals without the consumer-facing sting.
The flaw in this alchemy is basic economics: producers don’t eat costs—they pass them on. A 2023 Canadian Climate Institute study found that under the OBPS, 20-30% of industrial carbon costs already ripple to consumers via higher prices for goods like fuel, cement, and groceries. Jack up those levies, and the pass-through could hit 50% or more, per University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe’s estimates. Gas prices, already down 15-20 cents per litre with the consumer tax gone, could creep back up as refineries offset new penalties. Home heating? Same story. The net effect: consumers might see little relief, just a less visible bill.
So why bother? Politically, it’s advantageous—at least until the receipts come due. Carney buys time and goodwill, distancing himself from Trudeau’s baggage while stealing Poilievre’s thunder—at least temporarily. The Conservatives, poised to hammer Liberals on affordability in the next election (which may be as early as next week), now face a foe who’s co-opted their headline issue. Poilievre’s already sharpening the knife, noting the legislation’s still alive for a post-election reversal. And with Trump’s 25% tariff threat dangling, any cost hike could tank Carney’s trade diversification pitch to Europe and Asia.
MUNICIPAL
Can’t We Just Focus on Clearing out Snow?
It’s been some time since we have written about municipal issues, particularly the circus that is Toronto City Council, but we couldn’t overlook a development at City Hall this past Thursday. An added agenda item for the Executive Committee meeting set for March 19th is the consideration of creating a dedicated council seat to an indigenous person that, wait for it, may be unelected. The proposal, backed by Chow’s office as a step toward “inclusivity,” would add a race-based seat to council. Critics slam it as Diversity, Equity and Inclusion gone wild, arguing it is an afront to democracy to appoint a member of council based on race without input – or a vote – by the people.
Is this an initiative on which Torontonians want their elected officials to focus their time and energy? The city’s laundry list of woes paints a grim picture. Beyond the snow chaos—where seniors and mobility users dodged icy hazards—Toronto’s grappling with a $1.8 billion budget shortfall, a housing crisis with rents soaring, and Trump’s tariff threats hammering local businesses. Transit’s a mess too—Line 1 and 2’s struggles and blocked streetcars show the TTC’s winter response is as shaky as the sidewalks. Posts on X echo the frustration, with calls for Chow’s ouster over leadership flops. Yet here we are, sidetracked by a symbolic seat that might not even hold legal water, given Toronto’s provincial leash.
Is this really a priority? Hardly. The push feels like a shiny distraction from core failures—snow removal, affordability, and infrastructure—where Chow’s already on thin ice. The jurisdictional scan might kill it, but the damage is done as resources spent debating this could be used to tackle tangible issues facing Torontonians. Toronto needs practical fixes, not feel-good optics, especially when winter’s last storm exposed how far the city’s fallen. Chow’s got three years left—time to prove she can deliver, not just dream up new titles.
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