To the Point: For the Week of October 21st, 2024
News moves fast, and keeping up can feel like a full-time job. With endless headlines, how do you find the stories that matter to you and your business? Enter To the Point, a weekly roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group that cuts through the noise and delivers essential federal, provincial, and municipal stories right to your inbox.
FEDERAL
The Red Revolt
The Prime Minister was embroiled in a caucus revolt as 30 Liberal MPs signed a letter calling for the Prime Minister to step down, citing declining poll numbers and a loss of public trust after almost a decade in office.
While it came as a surprise to many political observers, we were not shocked by Trudeau’s decision to remain at the Party helm, responding to reporters with a firm “Yes” on the question of whether he planned to stay on as Leader.
“Slashing” Immigration
The National Post reported on Wednesday that the Trudeau government plans to cut immigration levels:
Reducing the permanent resident intake to 395,000 in 2025, down from 500,000
Further reductions to 385,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027
Reduction in the number of temporary resident visas in 2026 and 2027
However, upon closer policy examination, the government will still allow a significant number of current temporary residents to become permanent residents in 2025 and no sign of a meaningful reduction in temporary foreign workers. Only time will tell if Trudeau’s immigration U-turn has any impact on the government’s approval rating on the file.
Chrystia Freeland Goes to Washington
The finance minister jetted off to DC this week to attend meetings at the IMF and World Bank as well as with G7 and G20 Finance Ministers. Freeland touted signs of Canada’s cooling inflation, wage growth, and projected economic growth to a friendly audience.
Her gloating of Canada’s economic projections does not reflect Canada’s ongoing economic vulnerabilities, including declining productivity and an overreliance on population increases to push economic growth, both of which will have downward pressure on wages and individual prosperity. Furthermore, her proclamation that “we could spend even more” was received with confusion after the Parliamentary Budget Office announced she missed this year’s deficit target by 17%.
PROVINCIAL
Feeling the Energy
Ford’s Fall Session Kicks off with a strong focus on energy as the Ontario government introduced the Affordable Energy Act to address the province's growing energy demand. This legislation is part of Ontario’s first integrated energy plan, aiming to align the energy sector with a pro-growth agenda.
Highlights
Integrated Energy Plan: The plan will coordinate all energy resources, ensuring affordability and sustainability as Ontario's electricity demand is projected to increase by 75% by 2050.
Nuclear Energy: The Act prioritizes nuclear power as a reliable, zero-emissions source to meet future demands.
Energy Efficiency: Expanded programs will help families and businesses reduce costs and emissions.
EV Infrastructure: The legislation supports building more EV charging stations.
Ministers Calandra and Lecce are also addressing housing development barriers. Amendments to the Ontario Energy Board Act will reduce upfront costs for new power lines and simplify connections, extending the cost recovery period for residential developments from 25 to 40 years.
Ontario wants to be a leader in Energy and the government has initiated a consultation process for the Integrated Energy Plan, allowing stakeholders to provide feedback until December 13, 2024.
While we are excited to see Minister Lecce clearly taking his new file head on, the devil will be in the details.
It is high time that the government is focusing on the infrastructure and energy impacts and the barriers they add to community development.
We will continue to advocate for a responsible, reasonable and realistic approach that will help you achieve your goals.
Ford Appoints former Federal Liberal MP
In a move that caught some by surprise, Premier Ford appointed former federal Liberal MP Jane Philpott as Chair and lead of a new primary care action team. Philpott’s mandate over the next five years will squarely focus on getting Ontarians connected to a primary care physician.
The inside baseball is Philpott had been seen by people in the know as a potential star candidate for Bonnie Crombie’s provincial Liberals. Her new appointment makes a comeback to politics a virtual non-starter. The ONpoint team sees Philpott’s appointment as a great move by Ford, signalling a serious move towards action on healthcare ahead of what many expect to be an early election.
Fertility Frenzy
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy and Health Minister Sylvia Jones delivered a bundle of joy for couples seeking to start a family, announcing yesterday two measures to expand fertility treatment supports. The government is committing an additional $150M over two years to expand the Ontario Fertility Program and plans to introduce a robust Fertility Treatment Tax credit.
The ONpoint team is proud to have advocated for these exact policy measures and thrilled the government listened to the needs of modern, state-of-the-art fertility clinics. Politically, the announcement is a welcomed measure in line with comparable policies across the country and is expected to be a winner amongst women in the lead up to a predicted spring election.
MUNICIPAL
York Region Chairman Announces Retirement
York Region Chairman and CEO Wayne Emmerson announced his retirement and will be stepping down on November 30th. Emmerson served in public life for over 30 years, including as Mayor of Whitchurch-Stouffville. His time as York Chair primarily focused on transportation, housing and community safety.
As happens when officials announce their resignation, the jockeying over who will replace Emmerson has already begun. Prominent names in York Region politics such as Vaughan Deputy Mayor, Local and Regional Councillor Linda Jackson and Township of King Mayor Steve Pellegrini are being circulated and it’s anyone’s guess who will fill Emmerson’s shoes. In the meantime, Newmarket Mayor John Taylor will fill the interim chair role as required by regional by-law if a successor isn’t named by November 30th. It is unclear whether the provincial government or regional council will appoint the next chair.
Toronto By-election Furey
Advanced voting in the Toronto Ward 15 Don Valley West by-election begins today with recent polls showing former Toronto Sun comment editor and Toronto Mayoral candidate Anthony Furey with a 5-point lead over former Toronto District School Board trustee, Chernos Lin.
However, Furey should not count his chickens before they hatch as 30% of voters are still undecided. Never shying away from his more right-wing positions, Furey’s potential election would be considered a welcome voice by the right to a council firmly dominated by left-wing city councillors.
Standard & Poor Boosts Toronto’s Credit Rating
On October 23rd, S&P Global announced it raised the City of Toronto’s credit rating to AA+ for the first time since 2001, citing expected healthy operating balances and reserves. Toronto is expected to increase reserve usage for capital funding while maintaining strong liquidity, with debt levels projected to rise moderately but stay under 70% of operating revenues.
Mayor Chow should hold off on celebrating too much as S&P notes a negative rating action could occur if Toronto fails to balance the city budget with sustainable measures or if costs exceed expectations, resulting in a decline in the city's internal financial resources.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOUCS
FEDERAL
Expect chaos and gridlock to continue in Ottawa as Trudeau attempts to distract from his caucus uprising. The Sustainable Development Technologies Canada and ArriveCan scandals will gain more traction, so expect more prominent Liberals to publicly call for Trudeau’s ouster.
Current trends suggest President Donald Trump will be re-elected as America’s 47th president. We anticipate a change in domestic messaging from the Liberals to both prepare for a chaotic White House transition period and the seemingly never-ending effort to link Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre with the controversial GOP leader.
PROVINCIAL
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver the Ontario government’s Fall Economic Statement on Wednesday, October 30th, outlining the current state of the economy and public finances. The update is expected to provide details on the proposed Fertility Tretment Tax Credit and could also include $200 rebate checks to support Ontarians feeling the pinch over rising costs.
MUNICIPAL
The gloves are expected to come off next week as municipalities continue to evaluate the Ford government’s bill that would grant the province authority over municipal decisions on bike lanes, facilitate 24-hour-a-day road construction, accelerate property acquisitions, and exempt the planned Highway 413 project from the Environmental Assessment Act. The bill faced staunch objections from municipalities as well as the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
