To the Point for the Week of October 28th, 2024
To the Point
For the Week of October 28th, 2024
News moves fast, and keeping up can feel like a full-time job. With endless headlines, how do you find the stories that matter to you and your business? Enter To the Point, a weekly roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group that cuts through the noise and delivers essential federal, provincial, and municipal stories right to your inbox.
PROVINCIAL
Finance Minister Delivers 2024 Fall Economic Statement
Ontario’s Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy delivered the government’s Fall Economic Statement (FES) on Wednesday, providing Ontarians with a mid-year review of its economic and fiscal position. With an anticipated Spring election call, the 2024 FES should be read as a preview of the Ford Government’s re-election pitch to voters.
Here are some key highlights of the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: Building Ontario for You:
Ontario’s Economic Outlook:
Real GDP growth is projected to be 0.6% in 2024 but is expected to improve gradually beginning in 2025.
Employment remains strong, though job growth is slowing, and unemployment rates remain stable.
Families continue to feel the pinch in household costs due to inflation while higher interest rates continue to impact consumer and business spending.
Record population growth has increased the demand on services and infrastructure while at the same time boosting government revenues.
Ontario’s Fiscal Position:
Ontario’s deficit is projected to decline to $6.6 billion in 2024-25, $1.5 billion in 2025-26, and a surplus of $0.9 billion by 2026-27.
The net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to be 37.8% for 2024-25, among the lowest levels in over a decade, a sign that the Ford government has been effective at fiscal management.
Program Funding Top-Ups:
$94M allocated to Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy
$100M to Invest Ontario Fund
$40M to the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness Stream
Infrastructure Spending:
Approximately $191B in planned infrastructure projects over the next 10 years.
Feasibility studies to explore options to relieve traffic congestion, including a tunnel expressway under Highway 401.
Facilitate the completion of 635 planned or underway projects over the next four years, including Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass.
Addressing the Cost of Living:
$200 cost of living rebate for all eligible adult Ontario tax filers, plus an additional $200 for each eligible child.
Maintain the nine cents per litre gas tax and fuel tax rates until June 30, 2025.
Healthcare Dollars:
Committing nearly $50B over the next decade to hospitals and health infrastructure, including $36B in capital grants to over 50 hospital projects.
Investing $150M to expand the Ontario Fertility Program and a commitment to introduce a new fertility tax credit in 2025.
$17.7M in 2026-27 to enhance primary care access across the province through the Ontario Learn and Stay Grant.
Thanks to increased revenues due to inflation and population growth, the economic conditions have given the government leeway to increase spending. We believe Ontarians are in no mood for wild spending plans, given the state of the federal government’s spending decisions and the resulting economic consequences. Despite policy setbacks on the housing and healthcare files, we believe this Fall Economic Statement will be received by Ontarians as a “steady as she goes” update and signals a high probability of a Spring election call by Premier Ford.
Both Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP Leader Marit Stiles continue to struggle to gain traction as potential governments-in-waiting. We see the opposition’s only recourse in the form of more grandiose spending plans, such as Stiles’ proposal to create Homes Ontario, the largest home-building program in the province’s history. It remains to be seen what policy alternatives Crombie puts forward as questions swirl around her effectiveness as Liberal leader so close to an early election call.
Fly Robin Fly
The latest sign of an early Spring election in Ontario comes in the form of Eglinton-Lawrence PC MPP Robin Martin announcing her intent not to run again in the next election. Martin made the announcement on X this morning adding that the timing of her decision is intended to give the riding association ample time to nominate a candidate before the next election.
Robin’s departure came as a surprise to many observers, especially since there are several PC veteran caucus members who, at least for now, intend on running again in the next election. It remains to be seen if any prominent candidates line up to fill Martin’s shoes as the riding is considered a toss up. The PC Party has been busy acclaiming caucus members, so we will keep an eye out for any notable MPPs that have yet to confirm their intent to run again.
MUNICIPAL
Ward 15 Voters Go to the Polls on November 4
Torontonians living in Ward 15 Don Valley West are into the final week of the by-election following advance voting last weekend. The city reported a total of 4,019 votes were cast over the weekend to replace Councillor Jayne Robinson who passed away in May following a battle with cancer. Voters will have the final opportunity to cast their ballot on Monday, November 4th at 49 voting places across the Ward. Unofficial results will be available online at the Toronto Elections webpage starting at 9 p.m..
While candidates for Toronto City Council do not run under partisan party banners, the by-election is viewed as a microcosm of the apparent political realignment happening in Canada. Furey, an avowed small “c” conservative, has noted conversations he’s had at the door with former Trudeau voters who signalled their support for him. On the other side, former Toronto District School Board Trustee Chernos Lin is endorsed by several prominent Liberals, including former Premier Kathleen Wynne, and progressives on City council, such as Josh Matlow who argued she is the only viable candidate to prevent Furey’s election. Should Furey squeak out a victory, it should be viewed as another signal to the federal Liberals that their Toronto strong holds are at serious risk and a potential realignment in Toronto that has been dominated by Progressive politics.
Battle Brewing Over Mississauga Hospital Funding
At a contentious council meeting on Wednesday night, Mississauga City Council rejected a $450M funding request from Trillium Health Partners for the construction of a brand new, state-of-the-art healthcare facility – The Peter Gilgan Mississauga Hospital. The basis for council’s decision rests upon the fact that while no legislation exists requiring municipalities to provide funding for new hospital construction, the Ministry of Health has insisted that communities fund at least 10% of new hospital projects, even though the province has waved this for hospitals in the City of Toronto.
The province committed a multi-billion-dollar investment in expanding and building new hospitals in budget 2023. Despite the province’s commitment, the tug-of-war over hospital funding will likely become a critical issue at the local level in the expected Spring election. We anticipate Bonnie Crombie will commit the province to funding the project in full if she becomes Premier. The move may force Premier Ford’s hand in coming to the table to increase its share of funding for the hospital to avoid a contentious local issue in a key suburban riding.
Bye-Bye Bikes on Bloor
We predicted that the Province’s attempt to wrestle control of bike lanes in municipalities was going to crank up to 11, and boy did the Province deliver. The Ford government included an addendum to Bill 212 (Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act) to specify the government’s intent on removing bike lanes along some of Toronto’s busiest streets: Bloor Street, Yonge Street and Avenue Road.
Bike lane advocates are grinding their gears over the move, arguing the removal of bike lanes will increase the risk of death for cyclists in the city, and some businesses along Bloor maintain the bike lanes have been a boost for business. While Doug Ford previously supported bike lanes as a necessary measure to prevent injury and deaths, the PCs have tapped into a sentiment among many Ontarians that excessive bike lanes are a nuisance and are happy to drive this issue home for people who commute in and out of the downtown core.
FEDERAL
Vuong Named Names
As predicted in last week’s To the Point, political chaos continued in Ottawa this week. Independent MP Kevin Vuong held a press conference Monday morning with journalist Sam Cooper and foreign interference experts to publicly name three parliamentarians who – wittingly or unwittingly – were complicit in foreign interference operations: Senator Yuen Pau Woo, Minister Mary Ng, and Senator Victor Oh.
After Trudeau tried accusing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre last week of playing games with national security for not accepting an elevated security clearance needed to view documents, Trudeau now says he’s working with intelligence agencies to provide a briefing to Poilievre that would include the names of compromised parliamentarians. But why now? Foreign interference is a compounding issue for the Liberals. It’s not a top issue of concern amongst voters, but it does reinforce the perception that the Prime Minister cannot be trusted on matters of national security.
All Aboard!
The Trudeau government unveiled plans this week to build a high-speed rail line linking Toronto and Montreal. The federal government invited three consortia groups to submit proposals on the project and is expected to announce a winner in the coming days. Travelling at a speed of 300 km/h, the travel time between the two cities would take approximately three hours. Initial costs are estimated at approximately $80B, but many experts anticipate the costs ballooning to $120B.
We believe it would be a boost to civic morale for the government to undertake a large nation building project, like – though not on the scale of – the Canadian Pacific Railway. However, given the federal government’s track record, it’s virtually assured to be a disaster. The Liberals simply do not have the political capacity to undertake a project of this magnitude, and the costs are virtually guaranteed to spiral out of control. As Canadians continue to experience high levels of inflation and a struggling economy, they will have no appetite to shovel enormous sums of taxpayer dollars for a project from which a small segment of the country will benefit.
Trudeau Government on the Chopping Bloc?
Yves-Francois Blanchet signaled this week that the Bloc Quebecois could join forces with opposition parties on a confidence vote and trigger a federal election. Blanchet committed to supporting the Liberals into January 2025 on the condition of forcing through private members Bill C-319 (amendments to the Old Age Security Act) and Bill C-282 (legislation to project supply management from trade negotiations).
Both bills are making their way through the legislative process with little indication that the government is willing to heed the Bloc’s demands and push them through. Our take is that this is a lot of grandstanding on the part of the Bloc. Blanchet can huff and puff all he wants knowing that Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has no intention of going to the polls, even though months earlier he “tore up” the supply agreement he had with Trudeau in a public spectacle. Nevertheless, do not expect an early election call. In fact, Canadians shouldn’t hold their breaths in anticipation for a spring or fall election in 2025. Do not be shocked to see Trudeau continue to use every avenue possible to stay in power, forcing Canadians to wait until 2026.
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
President Trump Takes Out the Trash
The final stretch in the race for the White House has not disappointed. The former President exited his plane on a campaign stop in Green Bay, Wisconsin donning a reflective orange vest and climbed into a Trump 2024 garbage truck. The stunt comes on the heels of a bad joke delivered by a roast comic at Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. The joke precipitated a media frenzy only to be overshadowed by President Joe Biden’s remarks labelling Donald Trump’s supporters as “garbage.”
Taking questions from reporters while seated in the passenger side, Donald Trump stated “this truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden.” Love him or hate him, Donald Trump, and his campaign team, have mastered orchestrating viral moments that included a visit to McDonalds where Trump served up fries for hungry voters. The Harris campaign has struggled to generate positive, viral moments during the campaign. In fact, the only viral moments of the Harris campaign came from cringeworthy campaign rallies or clips of her bombing media interviews.
The Horse Race
Kamala Harris’ Democratic coronation following President Biden’s ouster from the top of the 2024 ticket generated remarkable hype and momentum. She held a slight edge over former President Trump for several weeks, right up until she started doing unscripted media interviews, and has since then struggled to regain the top spot. Word is the Democrats have been in panic mode for two weeks, noting a struggle to gain traction among male voters.
As of this morning, the national climate and polling is pointing to a Trump victory. Consider that 28% of Americans say the nation is on the right track, compared to 61% who think it isn’t. National sentiment is important because rarely do wrong track voters vote for the party currently in power. Polls are also showing a slight edge for Trump in the popular vote, something unheard of in recent memory for a Republican, and averages are showing slight advantages in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. However, no one is counting Harris out. While Republicans have made enormous strides in registering voters and getting them to turn out early in this cycle, the Democrat GOTV (get out the vote) machine has historically driven high turnout on election day.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
PROVINCIAL
ONpoint will continue to monitor the reaction to the government’s Fall Economic Statement. Do not expect the Ford government to make any new big splashes on the heels of FES. Instead, keep an eye on Merit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie to tease some policy proposals in response.
MUNICIPAL
While we all know bike lanes are going to dominate the news cycle again next week, we’re going to keep an eye on the Ward 15 Don Valley West by-election. ONpoint predicts Anthony Furey will squeak out a nail biter.
FEDERAL
The Liberals have brought on Andrew Bevan as National Campaign Director after the recent resignation of Jeremy Broadhurst. Bevan, a former Chief of Staff to Premier Kathleen Wynne and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, attempted to quell internal decent at this week’s Liberal caucus meeting by giving a two-hour presentation outlining the party’s election strategy and a pre-writ campaign of attack ads against Pierre Poilievre that begin next week
US ELECTION
Election day is Tuesday, but don’t expect a winner to be declared. If 2020 was any indication, unless it’s a convincing victory for either side, expect there to be legal battles, recounts and all kinds of shenanigans after November 5th.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
