To the Point for the Week of March 1, 2026
To the Point for the Week of March 1, 2026
The Toronto mayoral race begins to crystalize. Carney’s old habits die hard.
ONTARIO
A Race Emerges without Tory in the Field
Aside from the Premier’s plan to build a new island convention centre, it’s been a relatively quiet week provincially, so we’re taking advantage to cover the very interesting developments shaping the 2026 Toronto Mayoral race.
What set things off this week was the decision by former Toronto Mayor John Tory not to seek another shot at the executive position in Canada’s biggest city. Publicly, Tory cited personal reasons for not jumping in the race. It was not due to a lack of “energy or desire,” Tory explained, transparently saying “I cannot put my family and the people I care about through the inevitable attacks on me and my personal life.”
Tory’s decision may come as a surprise to the average Torontonian. Shortly after Tory resigned in February 2023 following revelations of his inappropriate relationship with a young female staffer, he had already set in motion a potential return to politics. He returned to broadcasting in August 2023, first as a fill-in for Newstalk AM1010’s Moore in the Morning and later appearing on various programs as an in-house “municipal affairs expert.” Voters became accustomed to hearing Tory’s voice again as he worked to repair his reputation, and commentators kept his name in the mix as a contender for a comeback, gaming out a Tory vs. Chow match-up in recent polls.
For insiders, it wasn’t a surprise. A comeback was very unlikely. It wasn’t just the unresolved fallout from his affair. The political infrastructure that propelled John Tory’s three successful campaigns, and the financial resources to fund it, had already been committed elsewhere, making it virtually impossible to sustain a competitive campaign.
Tory’s decision to stay out of the race is significant. Polling from late summer to as recent as early February showed, at times, very little distance between current Mayor Olivia Chow and Tory. Ipsos in September had Chow and Tory at 33% and 25% respectively, with Chow garnering a 60% approval rating. Followed up by a Liaison poll three months later which had Tory closing the gap to four points. The same Liaison polls had Brad Bradford, Beaches-East York councillor and 2023 Mayoral candidate polling at 16%. Liaison again earlier this month alongside Mainstreet Research polling showed the two separated by seven and nine points, respectively. Both had Brad Bradford in the high teens.
With Tory in the picture, the path to saying “Ciao, Chow” looked like an uphill battle. Abacus Data, however, revealed this week a very different political landscape. Abacus conducted polling in late January that revealed an overall two-way ballot has Chow 37% and Bradford 34%. That’s a statistical tie. Broken down among voters familiar with both candidates and that gap narrows to one point.
To be polling in the mid-30s and running essentially neck and neck with an incumbent mayor in Abacus’s January numbers represents an order-of-magnitude jump in support and name recognition compared to his finish in the 2023 race. His polling turnaround can be credited in part to his “get-back-to-basics” style of politics and is a welcome sign for voters seeking a centre/centre-right candidate to challenge Chow’s progressivism.
More encouraging for Bradford is that the polling shows significant room for growth. His image is much softer and more positive than Chow’s, whose impressions are almost evenly split at 39% positive, 40% negative and 17% neutral. Bradford’s numbers sit at 32% positive, 16% negative and roughly 20% neutral. Chow’s profile suggests an electorate that has already decided they dislike her or have cooled on her, while Bradford’s low negatives and high neutrals give the councillor a real chance to make a favourable impression on uncommitted voters before election day.
Centre and right-leaning voters have an encouraging sign from Abacus’ recent polling. But it’s not just the polling that is signalling a political landscape that is shifting away from progressive stances. It’s the palpable sense among Torontonians that the label of Toronto being a world class city is in name only. The perception among voters is that the city is unaffordable, public safety has declined significantly, and the ability for the city to carry out basic functions is deteriorating. Bradford is seen by the anti-Chow crowd as “get-the-basics-right” type of candidate and has consistently hammered Chow on the above-mentioned signs the city is prime for a change in leadership.
The thing that could spoil the impact of Tory sitting on the sidelines is the potential candidacy of former Toronto City Councillor, PC MPP, and nephew to the Premier, Michael Ford, who declared he is actively considering a run for the mayor’s seat. The inside baseball is that many are trying to dissuade Ford from running to avoid a vote split that could clear a path for Chow to be re-elected.
Bradford’s biggest threat is not Olivia Chow. It’s everyone else sitting on the sidelines contemplating a jump into the race, including Ford. Behind the scenes, Bradford would be wise to focus on consolidating support around him immediately to discourage others from making a move. That means kicking his fundraising machine into high gear and beginning to assemble his campaign in earnest. Publicly, he must lean further into the issues that have built up his name recognition and strong favourability rating to convert his 20% neutral rating into firm support.
FEDERAL
There Were Signs
Almost a year ago today, a piece appeared in the UK’s Telegraph newspaper about Mark Carney shortly after he was sworn in as Prime Minister. Written by columnist Matthew Lynn and entitled, “Canada is about to discover Mark Carney is the man with the reverse Midas touch,” the piece included various criticisms of Carney as governor of the Bank of England, including accusations of damaging the independence and trust of the central bank after taking a position in the Brexit debate and endorsing a Labour Party candidate.
One criticism that stood out, given the Prime Minister’s confusing and repeatedly changing position this week on the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, was Lynn noting Carney’s nickname in London’s financial district as “the unreliable boyfriend” for the number of times he changed his position on interest rates. Most notably in 2014 and 2018, British MPs and media complained about Carney’s inconsistencies around the Bank’s position on rate hikes that created uncertainty for businesses and households trying to decide whether to borrow, invest, or buy a home.
The pattern of bold initial signals followed by rapid recalibration is now showing up in Ottawa’s Iran messaging. Over the course of 72 hours, the government’s position on U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran moved from surprisingly hawkish and closely aligned with Washington, to prioritizing negotiations and calling for a ceasefire, and then to criticizing the Israelis and Americans for launching the campaign without going through the United Nations, even as the Prime Minister argued that the very international order the UN is meant to uphold had failed. As if the Prime Minister couldn’t make things more confusing, his last statement this week refused to rule out a potential military role for Canada in the conflict.
Canada’s positioning on Iran is hardly the only example of the Prime Minister’s inconsistency; it’s just the latest. The Prime Minister initially leaned into Trump’s 51st state rhetoric and then later described Trump as a “transformational president.” China was a security threat. It’s now a strategic partner. Carney insisted on “fiscal discipline” in his first budget. Carney’s first budget more than doubled the projected deficit to roughly $78B in 2025-2026.
The government’s pattern of contradiction and inconsistency could have serious repercussions as CUSMA review discussions commence. Trade lawyers and economists stress that Ottawa must enter negotiations with clear, predictable positions with so many CUSMA files exposed, including auto rules of origin and manufacturing content, tariff exemptions and sectoral tariffs, and sensitive sectors like energy, agriculture and steel/aluminum. The government better have its proverbial ducks lined up or else President Trump will smell blood in the water.
It is here where Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has an opportunity to bring the Prime Minister back down to earth. Pierre Poilievre is nothing if not consistent. Name whatever policy issue, immigration, crime, the economy, resource development, Poilievre has deviated very little from longstanding positions on these files. If anything, he has doubled down. Even under pressure to emphatically denounce Trump, Poilievre maintained a position that was equally pro-Canada and pro-US/Canada relations, something on which he had always been relatively clear.
Consistency means conviction. Over time, Poilievre can plant the seeds of an alternative to Carney’s political agenda. By maintaining consistent policy positions, particularly those aligned with most Canadians (e.g. immigration, crime and affordability issues), Poilievre may very well expose a serious flaw and weakness in the Carney government.
As we approach the anniversaries of both Lynn’s Telegraph piece and Carney’s first year in office, the question for Canadians is less about any single flip-flop and more about the pattern. A prime minister who shifts his story on Iran, Trump, China, fiscal discipline and now CUSMA asks voters, markets and allies to take a lot on faith. An opposition leader who largely says the same thing on those files, year in and year out, offers a different kind of risk: you may not agree with the prescription, but you have a pretty good idea what it will be. Over the next twelve months, with a volatile CUSMA review, another conflict in the Middle East, and a choppy global economy ahead, the advantage may lie with whichever political project can pair clear convictions with the steadiness to stick to them.
Christopher Mourtos, writing on behalf of ONpoint Strategy Group
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ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, and Brandon Falcone—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.