To the Point: For the Week of November 4th, 2024
News moves fast, and keeping up can feel like a full-time job. With endless headlines, how do you find the stories that matter to you and your business? Enter To the Point, a weekly roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group that cuts through the noise and delivers essential federal, provincial, and municipal stories right to your inbox.
As expected, the US Presidential election dominated this week’s news cycle. In keeping with the theme of our To the Point e-newsletter, the ONpoint team brings you brief snippets of insight and analysis on the US election results.
FEDERAL
Policy Headwinds for an Unprepared Government
We are willing to bet the federal government was unprepared for a Trump victory. There was no policy or message pivots from the Trudeau government in the lead up to election day that signalled the government was prepared to act in the best interest of Canadians no matter who the winner was. And it was only after Trump was elected did the feds revive a special cabinet committee focused on US relations.
The federal government is facing incredibly difficult policy headwinds on trade and supply chains, immigration, and military spending. It is expected that the Liberals will play politics with these critical issues, attempting to frame Trudeau as principled statesmen, standing up to the bully they perceive in President Trump. This can only be achieved by starting from a position of strength, which the ego in President Trump respects.
However, Trudeau has no policy mandate and is widely disliked, even amongst those who identify as Liberal. If we are indeed looking down the barrel of an election in late 2025, we expect Trudeau will unsuccessfully pursue this strategy, resulting in increased calls for his resignation.
No Lessons Learned
Newly minted Liberal National Campaign Director Andrew Bevan may need to go back to the drawing board and reassess the campaign strategy he recently laid out to caucus. Of course, we have different democratic systems and a different political culture in Canada, but the conclusion Bevan must draw from Trump’s victory is that voters are concerned and anxious about the state of the economy, immigration, the cost of living, and crime. It would be a mistake for the Liberals to allow their hubris to prevent them from learning this lesson.
Over the last several weeks, the Liberals were parroting Democrat attack lines used on Trump to attack Poilievre, accusing the Conservative Leader of being a threat to democracy, LGBT rights, women, and minorities - erroneously thinking these are resonating political messages. They have also compared Poilievre directly to Trump since he became leader in 2022, accusing him of having a hidden authoritarian agenda. This approach simply will not work.
The only thing Poilievre and Trump have in common is they both lead the parties of commonsense. Poilievre and the Conservatives’ message of delivering commonsense is obviously resonating with a broad swath of the electorate, just like the GOP did in this cycle, and the same policy issues that dominated the US election are the same here: state of the economy, immigration, cost of living, and crime. Poilievre should not be tempted to deviate from this approach or take the bait on divisive cultural issues.
PROVINCIAL
Ford’s Forward Thinking
While the federal Liberals appear to have failed to anticipate a Trump Presidency, Premier Doug Ford may have seen the writing on the wall months ago. The Ontario government retained US lobbying firm Capitol Counsel back in August on a contract worth $1.3M. Capitol Counsel is tasked with helping the government strengthen Ontario's economic ties with the United States and address potential challenges to a critical trade relationship. The firm will advocate for Ontario's interests in sectors such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture, which are vital to the province's economy.
While the move is being framed as an insurance against more protectionist trade policies from both camps, President Trump’s position on trade and tariffs will have the biggest impact on Ontario’s economy as a Harris Presidency would’ve represented a status quo. Premier Ford made a calculated decision to prepare Ontario for a Trump Presidency, reflecting the government’s commitment to safeguarding its economic interests. This was a very smart move that will deliver political benefits, demonstrating a commonsense approach to US relations that voters desire.
Crombie’s Liberals and Stiles’ NDP Will Learn Nothing
Just like their federal counterparts, the Crombie Liberals may not appreciate some of the lessons to be learned from the outcome of the Presidential election. Senior Liberals are already salivating at the prospect of galvanizing the Liberal base by equating Doug Ford with Donald Trump.
Both Crombie and NDP Leader Marit Stiles’ are trying to leverage supporters’ fears of Trump, with Crombie saying, “The People of Ontario deserve to know if Doug Ford still has admiration for the far-right divisive politics has we’ve seen south of the border.” Stiles was quoted on election day saying, “If Trump wins, I’m worried for Canada…and I’m worried for the people of the United States.”
As we noted above, this approach is not going to work. There is a palpable feeling amongst voters for commonsense approaches to policy issues and are largely ignoring the “threat to democracy” attack line. While Crombie and Stiles attempt to establish a narrative that Trump and Ford are two peas in a pod, Ford should double down on commonsense approaches to the economy, cost of living, and healthcare.
INTERESTING US ELECTION TAKEAWAYS
Orange Man Comeback
President Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States represents the greatest political comeback in American history, whether you like him or not. Impeachments, court cases, political smears, and not one, but two assassination attempts, did not deter him from seeking re-election. His campaign team learned valuable lessons from 2016 and 2020, and it was clear early in the evening that Trump would run away with it.
The Democrat voter turnout machine could not make up the gap in early voting turnout the Republicans excelled at in this cycle. The advantage Democrats had in Black and Latino voters vanished. The advantage they had among women was gone as soon as the working day ended, and male voters turned out to vote for Trump. But why? How did the man the Democrats and media equate to Hitler and his supporters to Nazis accomplish the following:
Electoral college landslide, including all 7 swing states
Won the popular vote by over 5m votes
Historic numbers of Hispanic, Black, Asian and Native American voters
Historic margins of women and young voters
It is because the no good, very bad Make American Great Again movement appealed to people who most would consider to be normal in the early 2000s. Most Americans are just normal, everyday people. Normal people care about the economy and cost of living. Normal people care about out-of-control immigration. Normal people care about free speech, election integrity, and government corruption. Normal Americans love their country, and Donald Trump was the only candidate who appealed to normal Americans.
Mandate for Change
Consider this: Republicans now control the Presidency, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court. Donald Trump and the Republican Party have a strong and clear mandate from the American people to deliver on their promises to fix the economy, secure the boarder, take-action against government corruption, and push for an end to global conflicts.
Republicans are positioned to have the most dramatic impact on US politics for the next four years, and beyond. Because the GOP controls the confirmation process, President Trump will be able to easily appoint whomever he wants to serve in cabinet; the judiciary; the federal reserve; ambassadorships and diplomatic postings; executive agency heads like the FDA; national security and defense appointments; as well as regulatory and advisory boards. We anticipate President Trump will waste no time announcing who he plants to nominate to key positions, including Tusli Gabbard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, and in some capacity, Elon Musk.
The Ascension of Independent Media
The 2024 presidential election signaled the replacement of corporate news with independent media and citizen journalism. President Trump’s campaign fully understood this and maximized its impact. Trust in news media continued to decline over the last 8 years as Americans became more attuned to dishonest corporate news coverage on issues like the economy, immigration, and government corruption.
Gen X’ers, Millennials, and Gen Z’ers overwhelmingly consume news and information from independent sources on social media. These generations have no desire for filtered information. The Trump campaign magnificently understood this and leveraged the reach of X and popular podcasts. Consider, for example, President Trump’s and JD Vance’s appearances on the Joe Rogan Experience. As of right now, Trump’s appearance has racked up 47M views, while Vance’s appearance has 15M. Compare these views with Vice President Harris’ appearance on Call Me Daddy that only racked up 811K views. Trump and Vance conducted two- and half-hour interviews that reached millions of voters, especially men of varying racial and socio-economic backgrounds, and may have been the difference in the election.
No-Bama, Thank You
The failure of the Obama presidency to deliver HopeTM and ChangeTM for the American people directly resulted in Donald Trump’s 2016 victory. Despite this, it was held by many in media and political circles that Barack Obama was still a shining star and could generate enthusiasm for Democrats. President Trump’s second victory proved that to be the opposite.
Barack Obama stumped for Joe Biden in 2020, but his impact on the race was negligible as most voters just wanted a “return to normalcy”. Fast forward to 2024, Obama stumped for Kamala Harris hard, but it turns out Barack is better at generating enthusiasm for himself as the candidate. He faced criticism for admonishing Black men for not supporting Harris, and made other divisive comments, including pushing the “fine people” hoax. Barack Obama was a drag on the campaign, not a boost, representing the corrupt political establishment that forced both Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris on voters. We believe Trump’s re-election ushered in the post-Obama environment, dismantling the progressive coalition that was credited for delivering his two terms, and relegating President Obama to political irrelevancy in future election cycles.
The X Factor
The most consequential figure of this Presidential election cycle was Elon Musk. His impact on the election was felt long before his endorsement of President Trump when had purchased X in October 2022.
During this election cycle, X users were free to share, access and challenge information, opinions and analyses about the candidates, the state of the nation, and other important issues from the independent and citizen journalists noted earlier. Information no longer had to be filtered through corporate media outlets or be subject to US government censorship (see the Twitter Files reporting from independent journalists Matt Taibbi and Michael Schellenberger available here). But it wasn’t just information that could be widely shared. The Trump campaign and its supporters had a complete stronghold on online meme culture, and X was rife with pro-Trump memes and videos that no doubt galvanized MAGA supporters into the mainstream.
NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS
PROVINCIAL
We will continue to monitor the fall out from the US Presidential election and keep an eye out for the response from the Bank of Canada following Minister Vic Fedeli’s call this week to lower interest rates. The ONpoint team will continue to observe moves from party leaders as signs of an early election.
MUNICIPAL
As the months grow colder, eyes will be focused on the issue of municipal response to growing homeless encampments. Premier Ford earlier this week signaled he has the support of many mayors to act on the encampments, which may include invoking the notwithstanding clause to override a 2023 Ontario Superior Court decision that ruled clearing encampments violated the rights of the habitants. Mayor Chow rejected the prospect of using the notwithstanding clause and instead promoted the expansion of Toronto’s shelter system to address homelessness. The ONpoint team will continue to monitor the developments on this story and anticipate any political fallout.
FEDERAL
Naturally, our federal focus will be on the Trudeau government’s response to President Trump’s re-election. We’ll be paying specific attention to changes in messaging and policy signals that may elucidate the government’s plans and priorities moving forward.
US/INTERNATIONAL
President-elect Trump will begin filling key staff positions in his administration that began with the appointment of the first female White House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles. Wiles served as Campaign Co-Chair and is credited for helping develop Trump’s campaign strategy. We will also keep a close eye on the Democrat reactions to Trump, focusing on whether they will attempt to block the President’s agenda or seek collaboration on bi-partisan issues. The ONpoint team will also be monitoring and giving analysis on international stories that have political and economic ramifications here at home.
About ONpoint Strategy Group:
ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.
