To the Point: For the Week of November 11th, 2024

News moves fast, and keeping up can feel like a full-time job. With endless headlines, how do you find the stories that matter to you and your business? Enter To the Point, a weekly roundup from ONpoint Strategy Group that cuts through the noise and delivers essential federal, provincial, and municipal stories right to your inbox.

PROVINCIAL
Carbon Tax Cut Crombie

In a move that made waves across Ontario politics this week, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie proposed a $2.8B tax cut in anticipation of an expected early election. Her “More for You” tax package pledges a 22% tax cut for the middle-class on top of plans to removing the provincial portion of the HST on home heating fuels and hydro bills. Crombie took a jab at Ford’s $200 rebate promise and noted that the Premier assured Ontarians help was on the way when he similarly proposed an income tax cut in 2018. A senior Liberal was quoted in the Toronto Star saying “She’s going to deliver tax cuts that Doug Ford promised but didn’t deliver and that the New Democrats and Greens would never touch.” The source went on to say that the impacts of Crombie’s tax cut will be permanent and save the average Ontario family $1,150 annually.

Crombie’s plan signals that an early Ontario election is not a matter of if but when, and the Liberals seem to be wising up to the sentiment of voters who are feeling the pinch. The ONpoint team agrees this was a very intriguing proposal that could entice voters, especially those with families feeling the brunt of inflation, to consider voting red in the next election. Ultimately, however, we believe there’s not much there to really tilt the scales away from the PCs who, at the time being, are perceived by voters as a safe place to park their votes. Crombie will need to compliment this proposal with other pocketbook policies as well as assurances that taxes will not go up elsewhere if they want to be competitive in 2025.

Ford Tells Mexico Podemos Solos

Premier Doug Ford this week had some tense words for Mexico, who Ford accused of being “a backdoor for Chinese cars, auto parts and other products into Canadian and American markets.” Ford has been touting “Buy Can-Am”, a dual-purpose position that promotes Ontario or US made products over those originating from Mexico as well as to shield Ontario from potential tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump. The move is intended to add pressure on Mexico to match US and Canadian tariffs on Chinese imports to combat transshipment, a tactic often used by China to undercut tariffs and other trade restrictions.

Perhaps the hefty $1.3M contract with Capitol Council, a US based government relations firm hired to help bolster the province’s position in Washington, was worth the price. Ford’s comments echo two sentiments of the incoming Trump administration: free trade is good so long as it’s fair and that underhanded moves to circumvent trade rules will not be tolerated. He’s also doing it from a position of strength, a virtue Trump respects. As the federal Liberals continue to step over themselves trying to carry favor with Washington, Ford is building bridges and positioning Ontario as a key economic partner. This will pay dividends come election time when the Liberals attempt to tie the Premier to Trump’s more controversial tendencies.

Ontario Inks Deal with Starlink

To improve high-speed internet access to rural and Northern Ontario, the province inked a deal with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service. The $100M deal will provide roughly 15,000 households and businesses with the technology by 2025. Starlink uses low-orbiting satellites to deliver fast internet access in remote areas too difficult to install and maintain underground internet cables. Access to high-speed internet has been an ongoing issue for many parts of rural and Northern Ontario and plans to secure connections for the North was a pledge by the Ontario PCs in 2018.

On the surface, delivering high-speed satellite internet makes sense both economically and practically. Starlink is a proven technology, relied upon by millions of users worldwide, and represents the future of connectivity that only a handful of companies can come close to replicating, both in performance and scale. However, reactions to the deal online questioned the value to taxpayers, noting that anyone can secure a Starlink terminal for $599CAD and pay the monthly service fee of $120CAD. The math on the province’s Starlink deal would mean that it would cost approximately $6,700 per household, which begs the question: did the province get the best value for money in this deal? Ford leaves himself vulnerable here since he’s been touting the PCs as more fiscally prudent than the Crombie Liberals and Stiles NDP. It also exposes him to cheap smears that he’s enabling Elon Musk, a favourite target of the political left since his endorsement and active support for President Trump’s re-election campaign.

MUNICIPAL
Tax-Tayers on the Hook for Swift Moving Motorcade

After months of hype and hysteria, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour finally arrived in Toronto this week literally escorted by police. The pop-icon performed her first of six shows beginning on Thursday, November 14th at the Roger’s Centre in front of 49,000 screaming fans. Destination Toronto anticipates half a million people who will descend on the city during Swift’s stay, generating approximately $282M in economic activity, including an additional $152M in direct spending. The city, led by Mayor Olivia Chow, almost literally rolled out the red carpet for the singer, including the temporarily renaming of Blue Jays Way to Taylor Swift Way.

Economic benefits and cultural significance aside, not everyone is pleased with the City’s response to the six-show event. Many residents are upset that Mayor Chow and Council have done more to accommodate a billionaire singer than to solve some of the City’s most serious on-going issues like crime, homelessness, and housing. Many Torontonians had had enough when visuals of the pop icon’s motorcade went viral on X, with many asking: who’s paying for this? We could not find comparable preparations from other major cities around the world, calling into question whether the City’s overwhelming response was necessary and wanted. The exact dollar amounts of the total cost to taxpayers was also unavailable. With so much capital, both financial and political, spent on welcoming the Eras Tour, one could suggest that solving the City’s critical problems is really a matter of will, perhaps something the City’s leaders lack.

Ottawa City Budget Unveiled

Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe unveiled the City’s budget this week, which included planned tax hikes and increased transit fares to cover the city’s massive $120M transit budget hole. Should the budget be passed at council, it will usher in a 2.9% increase in property taxes and an 8% increase in the transit levy, effectively meaning most residents will be paying 3.9% more in taxes. Baked into the budget is $5B in operating and $1.6B in capital expenditures respectively. Mayor Sutcliffe had most of council’s support on the budget, with some detractors like Capital Ward Councillor Shawn Menard arguing the increase in transit fares is unjust.

Not only is there a $120M hole in the transit budget, but City staff also left a question mark shaped crevasse in the budget that Sutcliffe is hoping will be plugged with $36M from the federal and provincial governments. It is unnerving to see our nation’s largest cities can’t seem to find the political will to get their fiscal house in order. Instead, they extend their hands to higher levels of government seeking a bailout. While we believe Sutcliffe will get the funds from the feds, we see him having a bigger challenge squeezing money from Premier Ford. In addition, Ottawa may have to wait in line behind cities like Toronto, Halifax, Vancouver and Montreal all vying for funds from Trudeau.

City of Toronto Proposes to Allow Taller Buildings on Major Avenues

The City of Toronto has proposed a policy to permit mid-rise buildings up to 11 storeys on major streets within residential neighbourhoods. This initiative aims to address the city's housing shortage by increasing density and diverse housing options. The policy focuses on "busier streets" to ensure that new developments are well-served by public transportation. The proposal includes guidelines to maintain the character of existing neighbourhoods, such as design standards and considerations for shadowing and privacy. The city plans to engage with residents and stakeholders through public consultations to refine the policy before implementation.

The ONpoint team welcomes policy proposals that seek to address the province’s housing crisis. Mayor Chow signalled to city planners and council that the plan lacks ambition, noting there are buildings higher than 12 storeys along the same avenues the new policy intends to impact. While we are encouraged by this proposal, the elephant in the room around housing in Toronto continues to be population growth thanks in large part to the Federal government’s immigration policy.

FEDERAL
Tories Top Trudeau

In Nanos’ latest polling numbers, the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, continue to cruise with a 16-point lead over the Liberals, who have managed to overtake the NDP. The top five issues on the top of minds of voters according to Nanos’ survey still has jobs and the economy firmly at number one, while healthcare, housing/cost of housing, inflation, and the environment round out the next 4 spots. Poilievre also bests Trudeau by 13 points on preferred PM tracking (35.1% to 21.9%).

The release of Nanos’ latest poll came just days before former federal Liberal Minister John Manley made the case that Canadians should go to the polls in a snap election prior to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. Manley argued that a snap election would deliver a mandate to whichever party wins the election to properly prepare for the incoming administration. A snap election will make no difference in preparing for Trump White House 2.0 because all parties should’ve already been prepared to engage the administration long before November 5th and scrambling to prepare for a post January 20th political environment would be an embarrassment for the country. We anticipate immigration will easily find it’s way into the top 3 list of issues of most concern to voters in the coming months, pushing out of the top five environment and healthcare.

Jet-setting Trudeau Touches Down in Peru for APEC Summit

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly are in Lima, Peru this week for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC). Established in 1989, APEC is a regional forum comprised of 21 nations that meet annually to discuss economic policies and initiatives to promote growth, trade, and cooperation in the region. This week’s annual meeting is focused on reinforcing multilateralism following Trump’s re-election and addressing other economic issues facing the region. The Prime Minister will then fly to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for the G20 summit where the war in Ukraine, Artificial Intelligence and global food insecurity will be discussed.

It seems like the Prime Minister’s favourite place to be is aboard government of Canada aircraft flying to yet another international event, which could be because he doesn’t receive much love here at home. Trudeau and Joly will try use the trip to somehow reverse perceptions at home that this government is mortally wounded and salvage whatever reputation Canada has left on the world stage after nine years of Trudeau. Minister Joly attempted to do just that during a media scrum where she stumbled to assure Canadians that world leaders consult Canada on how to deal with President Donald Trump, which is laughable because virtually no world leader really knows how to deal with Trump.

Canadian Household Debt Exceeds Economic Output, Tops $3T

Another worrying sign of the state of the economy and financial security of Canadians emerged this week as it was reported Canadian household debt has reached a staggering $3T. StatsCan’s assistant chief statistician, Jennifer Withington, issued a dire warning at the House of Commons industry committee saying that rising living costs continue to financially squeeze Canadian households. Canadians now owe $1.76 per dollar of disposable income earned, and although debt levels per dollar have slightly decreased in recent years, overall debt levels have doubled from previous generations.

Although Canadians had a slight reprieve on inflation over the last couple of months, it doesn’t take an economist to predict that the current economic environment in the country will continue to negatively impact household debt-servicing capacity. To make matters worse, there are no serious signs of any change in policy direction from the federal government. In fact, Trudeau seems to be doubling down on disastrous policies, including the recent introduction of new oil and gas regulations that (the government hopes) will be a death knell for the resource industry in Canada. The deteriorating economic and financial condition of Canadians, compounded with other major policy issues like criminal justice and immigration, will result in more political and social instability here at home that could manifest itself in unpredictable ways.

USA/INTERNATIONAL
Trump Administration 2.0 Takes Shape

President Trump has wasted no time in moving forward with his mandate for change, selecting MAGA personalities to fill his cabinet. Familiar faces returning to the White House include Robert Lighthizer as Trade Czar, Stephen Miller as Deputy Chief of Staff, and Tom Homan as Border Czar. As we predicted last week, Robert F. Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard were nominated for Health and Human Services and Director of National Intelligence respectively. Some surprise picks came in the form of Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, who some see as not a tried-and-true MAGA conservative, as well as 20-year combat veteran, Ivy League graduate and Fox News contributor Peter Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. Trump’s most controversial pick so far came in the form of Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz’s nomination for Attorney General.

Heads are exploding over these nominations, especially over Congressman Gaetz’s nomination to AG, who many see as a conservative firebrand as opposed to a serious selection for the role. Democrats and their media allies are also flummoxed over appointments of RFK JR and Gabbard to key positions. Trump’s early cabinet picks represent three things: 1) Trump has learned his lesson from his first administration to not appoint cabinet members forced upon him by those who sought to undermine his administration, 2) his cabinet selection is reflective of the younger generational shift towards Trump and the GOP with some of the youngest appointments in US history, and 3) signals that President Trump is prepared to hit the ground running after January 20th, especially on securing the southern border.

NEXT WEEK’S POINTS OF FOCUS

PROVINCIAL

We will continue to monitor the tit-for-tat policy proposals stemming from the Liberals and PCs as we inch closer to an election that is virtually guaranteed in 2025. The ONpoint team will also be on the lookout from policy signals from the NDP who we expect to focus their policy proposals on drawing support from progressives away from the Crombie Liberals.

MUNICIPAL

We will be keeping an eye on any political fallout at Mississauga City Council following Mayor Carolyn Parish’s comments and reaction to a planned vigil at the end of the month for a renowned terrorist. What impact that will have on council business moving forward remains to be seen. Also on our radar is the continued bike lane battle between Toronto and Queens Park, with the debate shifting from feasibility to cost.

FEDERAL

The ONpoint team will be primarily focused on the Trudeau government’s maneuvers following Trump’s re-election. We’ll see how the Trudeau government responds and prepares for Trump’s mass deportation plans that we expect will begin to take shape over the coming weeks. We’re also curious to see how the federal government responds to Premier Ford’s push to remove Mexico from the USMCA. As well, rumours are that the government is preparing the federal fall economic statement.

US/INTERNATIONAL

We will continue to observe Trump’s cabinet nominations and watch for signals from Senate Republicans on which nominations may not be easily confirmed. We will also monitor signals from each cabinet appointment and determine what impact they will have on Ontario and the nation.


About ONpoint Strategy Group:

ONpoint Strategy Group is all about helping clients make an impact where it counts. Specializing in government relations and strategic execution, our team—Nico Fidani-Diker, Mariana Di Rezze, Krystle Caputo, David Morgado, Christopher Mourtos, Ellen Gouchman, Brandon Falcone, and Mike Britton—works closely with clients to navigate complex political landscapes and bring their goals to life. With a practical, results-driven approach, we build strong relationships, craft winning strategies, and make sure every step brings clients closer to meaningful outcomes. We’re passionate about making sure our clients are heard, supported, and positioned for success.